20- and 25-mark essays

Every essay question set: the 20-markers from Section C of the AS papers and the 25-markers from the A-level papers, including the either/or choices. 108 questions.

Other types: Multiple-choice questions · Definition questions · Calculation questions · Diagram questions · Short explain questions (2–6 marks) · 8- to 15-mark responses · Data-response questions

June 2025 · AS Paper 1 · Q6(f) 20 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=6, AO4=6 20-mark essay Either/or Hard government intervention in marketsindirect taxes and subsidies
Data and extracts for question 6Sources for use with SECTION B Read the following figures (1 and 2) and extracts (A and B) before answering Question 6. The market for meat and the growth of vegetarianism Figure 1 The impact of subsidies on farmer income, in England, 2018–2019 (£000 per farm) Cereals Dairy Grazing livestock Pigs Poultry Mixed -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 £000 per farm Key Profit Subsidies (Source: adapted from www.FT.com) Figure 2 Potential impact of indirect tax rises on meat prices per kg, 2023–2030 Before indirect After indirect Type of Meat tax increases tax increases Beef/Veal £24.24 £29.50 Chicken £7.60 £8.63 (Source: adapted from Tax beef, pork and chicken to help climate and health, EU urged – CGTN) Extract A The case for cutting out meat Around a third of Britons are reducing the amount of meat they eat or are cutting it out altogether. Are these consumers right to be cutting out meat? For a start, there are the greenhouse gases released as a result of producing food. The evidence is clear that switching to a plant-based diet would lower emissions. A UK study found that eating a 5 diet high in meat costs 7.2 kg carbon dioxide emissions per day, compared with 3.8 kg for vegetarians. It would also free up land for other uses. Nearly 80% of the world’s farmland is dedicated to rearing animals; a plant-based diet would cut the use of land for agriculture by 76%. The land currently used by grazing livestock could be used for “rewilding”, allowing the environment and animal species destroyed by meat farming to 10 recover. Our health and wealth would be better too. A study published in 2016 modelled what would happen to our health and the global economy if we all switched to vegetarian diets. The economic benefits of switching to plant-based diets could be as much as £700 billion to £1 trillion per year in terms of savings on healthcare costs and lost 15 working days due to ill health. Some economists recommend an increased indirect tax on animal products so that their prices reflect the cost of externalities. This could impact on European farmers, if adopted by the European Union. The tax could bring £35 billion to the EU, with around £15 billion of that going directly to farmers. The 20 rest would be used to bring down VAT on fruit and vegetables, and fund other policies to encourage healthy-eating diets both in and outside the EU. (Source: adapted from https://moneyweek.com/499842/the-economic- consequences-of-veganism December-28-2018) Extract B Businesses benefitting from meat-substitute products There is one group for whom the trend towards meat-substitute products is definitely a good thing: processed food manufacturers and retailers. Finest British beef burgers are priced at £6.61 per kg. The ‘fake burger’ (which is made mostly of pea protein) is priced at £21.81 per kg even though the ingredients used to 5 make them, such as mushrooms, peas and palm oil, are cheaper ingredients than meat. Despite high prices, demand continues to rise for these products. This might benefit shareholders, but is it doing any real good for the rest of us? A large food producer bought meat-substitute product maker Vegetarian Butcher in December 2018 and is moving towards a range with more meat-substitute products. 10 In 2017, Nestlé bought Sweet Earth, a California-based maker of vegetarian foods, and it is launching its own meat-substitute ‘Incredible Burger’. It expects its meat-substitute revenues to reach $1 billion by 2029. As subsidies are being cut in every area of farming, consumers ought to be willing to pay higher prices for all food products. If farmers are to stay in business, they need to find 15 additional sources of revenue such as oyster mushrooms, goji berries and basil. (Source: adapted from http://www.financialtimes.com/the-veganism-boom-does- more-for-food-company-profits-than-the-planet February-22-2019)
(f) Evaluate the likely microeconomic effects of a reduction in subsidies to farmers of animal products (Figure 1 and Extract B, line 14). Use a relevant diagram to support your answer. (20)
June 2025 · AS Paper 1 · Q6(g) 20 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=6, AO4=6 20-mark essay Either/or government intervention in marketsindirect taxes and subsidies
Data and extracts for question 6Sources for use with SECTION B Read the following figures (1 and 2) and extracts (A and B) before answering Question 6. The market for meat and the growth of vegetarianism Figure 1 The impact of subsidies on farmer income, in England, 2018–2019 (£000 per farm) Cereals Dairy Grazing livestock Pigs Poultry Mixed -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 £000 per farm Key Profit Subsidies (Source: adapted from www.FT.com) Figure 2 Potential impact of indirect tax rises on meat prices per kg, 2023–2030 Before indirect After indirect Type of Meat tax increases tax increases Beef/Veal £24.24 £29.50 Chicken £7.60 £8.63 (Source: adapted from Tax beef, pork and chicken to help climate and health, EU urged – CGTN) Extract A The case for cutting out meat Around a third of Britons are reducing the amount of meat they eat or are cutting it out altogether. Are these consumers right to be cutting out meat? For a start, there are the greenhouse gases released as a result of producing food. The evidence is clear that switching to a plant-based diet would lower emissions. A UK study found that eating a 5 diet high in meat costs 7.2 kg carbon dioxide emissions per day, compared with 3.8 kg for vegetarians. It would also free up land for other uses. Nearly 80% of the world’s farmland is dedicated to rearing animals; a plant-based diet would cut the use of land for agriculture by 76%. The land currently used by grazing livestock could be used for “rewilding”, allowing the environment and animal species destroyed by meat farming to 10 recover. Our health and wealth would be better too. A study published in 2016 modelled what would happen to our health and the global economy if we all switched to vegetarian diets. The economic benefits of switching to plant-based diets could be as much as £700 billion to £1 trillion per year in terms of savings on healthcare costs and lost 15 working days due to ill health. Some economists recommend an increased indirect tax on animal products so that their prices reflect the cost of externalities. This could impact on European farmers, if adopted by the European Union. The tax could bring £35 billion to the EU, with around £15 billion of that going directly to farmers. The 20 rest would be used to bring down VAT on fruit and vegetables, and fund other policies to encourage healthy-eating diets both in and outside the EU. (Source: adapted from https://moneyweek.com/499842/the-economic- consequences-of-veganism December-28-2018) Extract B Businesses benefitting from meat-substitute products There is one group for whom the trend towards meat-substitute products is definitely a good thing: processed food manufacturers and retailers. Finest British beef burgers are priced at £6.61 per kg. The ‘fake burger’ (which is made mostly of pea protein) is priced at £21.81 per kg even though the ingredients used to 5 make them, such as mushrooms, peas and palm oil, are cheaper ingredients than meat. Despite high prices, demand continues to rise for these products. This might benefit shareholders, but is it doing any real good for the rest of us? A large food producer bought meat-substitute product maker Vegetarian Butcher in December 2018 and is moving towards a range with more meat-substitute products. 10 In 2017, Nestlé bought Sweet Earth, a California-based maker of vegetarian foods, and it is launching its own meat-substitute ‘Incredible Burger’. It expects its meat-substitute revenues to reach $1 billion by 2029. As subsidies are being cut in every area of farming, consumers ought to be willing to pay higher prices for all food products. If farmers are to stay in business, they need to find 15 additional sources of revenue such as oyster mushrooms, goji berries and basil. (Source: adapted from http://www.financialtimes.com/the-veganism-boom-does- more-for-food-company-profits-than-the-planet February-22-2019)
(g) Evaluate the likely microeconomic effects of an increase in indirect tax on animal products (Figure 2 and Extract A, line 17). Use a relevant diagram to support your answer. (20)
June 2025 · AS Paper 2 · Q6(f) 20 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=6, AO4=6 20-mark essay Either/or inflation
Data and extracts for question 6Sources for use with SECTION B Read Figures 1 and 2 and Extract A before answering Question 6. UK living standards and supply‑side policies Figure 1: UK rate of economic growth, 2010 to 2028 10.0 % 7.5 5.0 2.5 0 –2.5 –5.0 –7.5 –10.0 * Data from 2023 to 2028 are forecast figures (Source: adapted from https://www.statista.com/statistics/375195/gdp-growth-forecast-uk/) Figure 2: UK inflation rate* and base interest rate, January 2022 to October 2023 12 % 10 8 6 4 2 0 inflation rate base interest rate * Measured by Consumer Prices Index (CPI). This is the year-on-year inflation rate calculated monthly. (Source: adapted from www.statista.com and www.tradingeconomics.com) Extract A Economic reforms Economists forecast that the UK will experience a slower rate of economic growth between 2024 and 2028. They also expect a high rate of inflation due to rising import prices of food, fuel and energy, and a strong demand for consumer goods. As a result, real income per household is estimated to decrease by around 0.9% in 2024. 5 This decrease would be the largest reduction in living standards since the Office for National Statistics records began in the 1950s. However, the UK government argues that there are some limitations of using GDP to compare living standards over time. One main reason is the fact that GDP figures are in nominal terms. The government questions the reliability of inflation data as it 10 believes that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Bank of England will keep a high base interest rate to control inflation. The government also claims that the forecast by economists fails to consider the market-based supply-side policies it introduced in November 2023 to improve living standards. The government’s £10.4 billion cut to National Insurance contributions for employees 15 is the most significant policy, expected to increase employment and living standards. It is forecast to bring additional people into work and encourage more people to work longer hours. This is likely to result in an extra 94 000 full-time workers. The government has also taken measures to encourage more out-of-work benefits claimants into jobs. It introduced stricter benefit rules for people who can work but 20 do not take a job offered to them. This includes stopping people’s benefits if they do not actively engage in seeking employment in six months. This is likely to result in a further increase in employment figures. But economists claim that its impact on GDP will be relatively insignificant. This is because most of those affected by this policy will take on work with limited hours and very low pay. 25 These market-based supply-side policies, combined with measures centred on childcare subsidies for working parents, are expected to increase total employment by 200 000 between 2024 and 2028. The government argues that the expected increase highlights that it is better to “unlock the potential we have at home”, rather than encouraging migration. However, several economists suggest that 30 a rise in net migration is contributing more to an increase in the UK’s potential economic growth. Furthermore, the UK government’s decision to offer 100% tax relief on investment in capital machinery will increase overall investment by 0.5% by 2028. The benefits of 35 this effective tax cut for firms are estimated to increase over time, as technology advances and productivity improves. However, this tax cut will not prevent business investment falling in the short term, as higher interest rates are making it more expensive for firms to borrow. Economists suggest that this tax cut can only be funded by decreasing government 40 expenditure on public services in the long run. Government expenditure will need to decrease by a third, as a proportion of GDP, between 2024 and 2028. (Source: adapted from https://www.ft.com/content/5ff3538b-aed2-4898-b423- f0c61da728ff)
(f) Evaluate the possible causes of inflation in the UK. (20)
June 2025 · AS Paper 2 · Q6(g) 20 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=6, AO4=6 20-mark essay Either/or supply side policies
Data and extracts for question 6Sources for use with SECTION B Read Figures 1 and 2 and Extract A before answering Question 6. UK living standards and supply‑side policies Figure 1: UK rate of economic growth, 2010 to 2028 10.0 % 7.5 5.0 2.5 0 –2.5 –5.0 –7.5 –10.0 * Data from 2023 to 2028 are forecast figures (Source: adapted from https://www.statista.com/statistics/375195/gdp-growth-forecast-uk/) Figure 2: UK inflation rate* and base interest rate, January 2022 to October 2023 12 % 10 8 6 4 2 0 inflation rate base interest rate * Measured by Consumer Prices Index (CPI). This is the year-on-year inflation rate calculated monthly. (Source: adapted from www.statista.com and www.tradingeconomics.com) Extract A Economic reforms Economists forecast that the UK will experience a slower rate of economic growth between 2024 and 2028. They also expect a high rate of inflation due to rising import prices of food, fuel and energy, and a strong demand for consumer goods. As a result, real income per household is estimated to decrease by around 0.9% in 2024. 5 This decrease would be the largest reduction in living standards since the Office for National Statistics records began in the 1950s. However, the UK government argues that there are some limitations of using GDP to compare living standards over time. One main reason is the fact that GDP figures are in nominal terms. The government questions the reliability of inflation data as it 10 believes that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Bank of England will keep a high base interest rate to control inflation. The government also claims that the forecast by economists fails to consider the market-based supply-side policies it introduced in November 2023 to improve living standards. The government’s £10.4 billion cut to National Insurance contributions for employees 15 is the most significant policy, expected to increase employment and living standards. It is forecast to bring additional people into work and encourage more people to work longer hours. This is likely to result in an extra 94 000 full-time workers. The government has also taken measures to encourage more out-of-work benefits claimants into jobs. It introduced stricter benefit rules for people who can work but 20 do not take a job offered to them. This includes stopping people’s benefits if they do not actively engage in seeking employment in six months. This is likely to result in a further increase in employment figures. But economists claim that its impact on GDP will be relatively insignificant. This is because most of those affected by this policy will take on work with limited hours and very low pay. 25 These market-based supply-side policies, combined with measures centred on childcare subsidies for working parents, are expected to increase total employment by 200 000 between 2024 and 2028. The government argues that the expected increase highlights that it is better to “unlock the potential we have at home”, rather than encouraging migration. However, several economists suggest that 30 a rise in net migration is contributing more to an increase in the UK’s potential economic growth. Furthermore, the UK government’s decision to offer 100% tax relief on investment in capital machinery will increase overall investment by 0.5% by 2028. The benefits of 35 this effective tax cut for firms are estimated to increase over time, as technology advances and productivity improves. However, this tax cut will not prevent business investment falling in the short term, as higher interest rates are making it more expensive for firms to borrow. Economists suggest that this tax cut can only be funded by decreasing government 40 expenditure on public services in the long run. Government expenditure will need to decrease by a third, as a proportion of GDP, between 2024 and 2028. (Source: adapted from https://www.ft.com/content/5ff3538b-aed2-4898-b423- f0c61da728ff)
(g) Evaluate the use of market-based supply-side policies to increase UK employment. (20)
June 2025 · Paper 1 · Q7 25 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=8, AO4=9 25-mark essay Either/or externalitieslabour market
7 High Speed 2 (HS2) was a £100 billion UK government rail project designed to expand the existing network. The journey time between London and Manchester would take just 1 hour and 11 minutes, 54 minutes quicker than today’s fastest time. Almost 900 homes, 1 000 businesses and around 60 ancient woodlands would be destroyed by its construction. (Source: adapted from https://www.independent.co.uk/climate-change/news/ hs2-railway-route-houses-demolish-woodland-destroy-environment- impact-london-birmingham-manchester-a8582316.html) Evaluate the likely microeconomic effects of building major infrastructure projects.
June 2025 · Paper 1 · Q8 25 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=8, AO4=9 25-mark essay Either/or externalitieslabour market
8 In 2023, the UK prime minister Rishi Sunak said that he wanted to see all students in England study some form of mathematics until they reach the age of 18 to ‘ensure that they leave school better equipped for the jobs of the future’. This would require additional spending on education. Just half of all 16 to 19 year-olds study mathematics. Yet in a world where data is everywhere and statistics are vital in every job, the workforce will require more analytical skills than ever before. (Source: adapted from https://educationhub.blog.gov.uk/2023/01/04/ studying-maths-to-18-what-you-need-to-know/) Evaluate the likely microeconomic effects of increased spending on education.
June 2025 · Paper 2 · Q7 25 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=8, AO4=9 25-mark essay Either/or macroeconomic objectives
7 In January 2023 the UK prime minister, Rishi Sunak, promised to halve inflation by the end of the year. In July 2023 the Bank of England governor, Andrew Bailey, said: “It is crucial that we… return inflation to its 2% target and provide the environment of price stability in which the UK economy can thrive. This is the best contribution monetary policy can make to the prosperity of the United Kingdom.” (Source adapted from: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jan/04/ sunak‑vows‑to‑be‑steady‑hand‑on‑tiller‑but‑are‑his‑pledges‑all‑sleight‑of‑hand and https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/jul/10/ inflation‑bank‑of‑england‑boss‑andrew‑bailey‑speech) Evaluate the possible conflicts between macroeconomic objectives when seeking to control inflation.
June 2025 · Paper 2 · Q8 25 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=8, AO4=9 25-mark essay Either/or emerging and developing economies
8 In Sudan, public services such as healthcare are struggling to keep running. Power outages, blocking of internet access, and fuel shortages, will mean hospitals struggle to operate. Many of the hospitals in the capital city, Khartoum, have reported shortages of doctors, blood, transfusion equipment, medical supplies, and other skilled workers and commodities. (Source adapted from: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/ PIIS0140‑6736(23)00858‑9/fulltext) Evaluate the possible factors influencing the level of economic development in a developing country of your choice.
June 2025 · Paper 3 · Q1(d) 25 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=8, AO4=9 25-mark essay Either/or inflationrevenues costs and profits
Data and extracts for question 1Sources for use with SECTION A Read Figures 1 and 2 and the following Extracts A, B, C and D before answering Question 1. The cost of living in the UK Figure 1: The price per litre of unleaded petrol in the UK, in pence, 2016–2023 200 Pence per litre 180 160 140 120 100 0 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 (Source adapted from: RAC) Figure 2: UK inflation, as measured by CPI, and wage growth (excluding bonuses), 3-month averages, 2012–2022 10 Inflation % (9.4%) 8 6 Wage growth (4.7%) 4 2 0 –2 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 (Source adapted from: ONS) Extract A Supermarket restrictions on multibuy deals and advertising Government rules limiting the location of unhealthy foods in shops began in 2022. Less healthy products are no longer promoted in key locations, such as checkouts, store entrances, aisle ends and their online equivalents. Rules banning multibuy deals on foods and drinks high in fat, salt or sugar (HFSS) – including buy one get 5 one free (BOGOF), ‘3 for 2’, and restrictions on free refills for soft drinks – were due in October 2023. The restrictions banning HFSS adverts on TV before 9pm and paid-for adverts online were set for January 2024. (Source adapted from: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/government-delays- restrictions-on-multibuy-deals-and-advertising-on-tv-and-online) Extract B Supermarket pay in 2023 Supermarkets have been increasing their hourly pay rates and most now pay significantly more than the National Minimum Wage, which was set at £10.42 in April 2023. Tesco made its biggest ever investment in employee pay in 2023, spending 5 £230 million to finance an increase in its basic hourly rate of pay, to £11.02 per hour, rising to £11.95 in London. The pay increase is the latest boost in employment benefits as supermarkets continue to compete for in-store workers, with Sainsbury’s and Asda both increasing pay to above £11 per hour in July 2023, while Aldi pays £11.40 an hour. 10 Supermarkets have found themselves facing criticism over pay that did not rise in line with inflation. Some workers are taking industrial action, such as strikes, working closely with trade unions. (Source adapted from: https://www.grocerygazette.co.uk/2023/02/22/supermarket-pay-rate-2023/) Extract C Supermarket petrol pricing In 2023 David Potts, the boss of Morrisons, admitted that supermarkets increased profits at the petrol pumps as he was questioned in a parliamentary committee alongside executives from Tesco, Sainsbury’s and Asda who denied they were making more profit from keeping petrol prices high. 5 A Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) report indicates that supermarkets’ profits have doubled to 8% on fuel since 2017. It is expected to recommend that supermarkets must share local fuel prices on a comparison website in order to increase transparency and help bring down prices – a strategy tried successfully in Northern Ireland. All the supermarkets said they would welcome such a move. 10 In 2023, the RAC motoring group said that a price checker would be welcome but blamed high prices on the domination of petrol retailing in the UK by a few large supermarkets. “When the wholesale price of diesel fell this spring, we saw average retailer margin reach 22p a litre which was more than three times the long-term margin of 7p. This cannot be allowed to continue when households are having to 15 contend with a cost of living crisis,” an RAC spokesperson said. At the committee, one politician, Jane Hunt, said: “In 1978 there were many more supermarkets. Now there are very few…are you in fact a cartel?” (Source adapted from: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/jun/27/morrisons- boss-admits-supermarket-chains-have-hiked-profits-on-petrol) Extract D EU trade relations with the UK The Trade and Cooperation Agreement 2021 between the EU and the UK means that there are no tariffs or quotas on goods moving between the EU and UK, provided those goods meet the ‘rules of origin’ of a good, based on where the products or materials used in their production come from. They prevent goods 5 manufactured in outside countries being transported through the UK (or the EU) to avoid paying tariffs. To benefit from the zero tariff, businesses must show the origin of their goods. A product qualifies as ‘originating’ if it is ‘wholly obtained’ in the UK and EU or has been substantially transformed in one or both markets. That is why UK businesses 10 that re-export goods from outside countries with little or no further processing, may still face tariffs when trading with EU member states. ‘Rules of origin’ can be time consuming and complex. Some businesses cannot or do not wish to claim zero tariff because of the excessive administrative costs to firms. (Source adapted from: https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/new-customs-rules-for-trade-with-the-eu/)
(d) Evaluate the microeconomic and macroeconomic effects of high levels of inflation. Refer to the UK or any other developed economy in your answer. (25)
June 2025 · Paper 3 · Q1(e) 25 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=8, AO4=9 25-mark essay Either/or trading blocs and protectionismrevenues costs and profits
Data and extracts for question 1Sources for use with SECTION A Read Figures 1 and 2 and the following Extracts A, B, C and D before answering Question 1. The cost of living in the UK Figure 1: The price per litre of unleaded petrol in the UK, in pence, 2016–2023 200 Pence per litre 180 160 140 120 100 0 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 (Source adapted from: RAC) Figure 2: UK inflation, as measured by CPI, and wage growth (excluding bonuses), 3-month averages, 2012–2022 10 Inflation % (9.4%) 8 6 Wage growth (4.7%) 4 2 0 –2 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 (Source adapted from: ONS) Extract A Supermarket restrictions on multibuy deals and advertising Government rules limiting the location of unhealthy foods in shops began in 2022. Less healthy products are no longer promoted in key locations, such as checkouts, store entrances, aisle ends and their online equivalents. Rules banning multibuy deals on foods and drinks high in fat, salt or sugar (HFSS) – including buy one get 5 one free (BOGOF), ‘3 for 2’, and restrictions on free refills for soft drinks – were due in October 2023. The restrictions banning HFSS adverts on TV before 9pm and paid-for adverts online were set for January 2024. (Source adapted from: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/government-delays- restrictions-on-multibuy-deals-and-advertising-on-tv-and-online) Extract B Supermarket pay in 2023 Supermarkets have been increasing their hourly pay rates and most now pay significantly more than the National Minimum Wage, which was set at £10.42 in April 2023. Tesco made its biggest ever investment in employee pay in 2023, spending 5 £230 million to finance an increase in its basic hourly rate of pay, to £11.02 per hour, rising to £11.95 in London. The pay increase is the latest boost in employment benefits as supermarkets continue to compete for in-store workers, with Sainsbury’s and Asda both increasing pay to above £11 per hour in July 2023, while Aldi pays £11.40 an hour. 10 Supermarkets have found themselves facing criticism over pay that did not rise in line with inflation. Some workers are taking industrial action, such as strikes, working closely with trade unions. (Source adapted from: https://www.grocerygazette.co.uk/2023/02/22/supermarket-pay-rate-2023/) Extract C Supermarket petrol pricing In 2023 David Potts, the boss of Morrisons, admitted that supermarkets increased profits at the petrol pumps as he was questioned in a parliamentary committee alongside executives from Tesco, Sainsbury’s and Asda who denied they were making more profit from keeping petrol prices high. 5 A Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) report indicates that supermarkets’ profits have doubled to 8% on fuel since 2017. It is expected to recommend that supermarkets must share local fuel prices on a comparison website in order to increase transparency and help bring down prices – a strategy tried successfully in Northern Ireland. All the supermarkets said they would welcome such a move. 10 In 2023, the RAC motoring group said that a price checker would be welcome but blamed high prices on the domination of petrol retailing in the UK by a few large supermarkets. “When the wholesale price of diesel fell this spring, we saw average retailer margin reach 22p a litre which was more than three times the long-term margin of 7p. This cannot be allowed to continue when households are having to 15 contend with a cost of living crisis,” an RAC spokesperson said. At the committee, one politician, Jane Hunt, said: “In 1978 there were many more supermarkets. Now there are very few…are you in fact a cartel?” (Source adapted from: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/jun/27/morrisons- boss-admits-supermarket-chains-have-hiked-profits-on-petrol) Extract D EU trade relations with the UK The Trade and Cooperation Agreement 2021 between the EU and the UK means that there are no tariffs or quotas on goods moving between the EU and UK, provided those goods meet the ‘rules of origin’ of a good, based on where the products or materials used in their production come from. They prevent goods 5 manufactured in outside countries being transported through the UK (or the EU) to avoid paying tariffs. To benefit from the zero tariff, businesses must show the origin of their goods. A product qualifies as ‘originating’ if it is ‘wholly obtained’ in the UK and EU or has been substantially transformed in one or both markets. That is why UK businesses 10 that re-export goods from outside countries with little or no further processing, may still face tariffs when trading with EU member states. ‘Rules of origin’ can be time consuming and complex. Some businesses cannot or do not wish to claim zero tariff because of the excessive administrative costs to firms. (Source adapted from: https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/new-customs-rules-for-trade-with-the-eu/)
(e) Evaluate the microeconomic and macroeconomic effects of a regional trade agreement between the UK and the EU. (25)
June 2025 · Paper 3 · Q2(d) 25 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=8, AO4=9 25-mark essay Either/or poverty and inequalitylabour market
Data and extracts for question 2Sources for use with SECTION B Read Figure 3 and the following Extracts (E to G) before answering Question 2. The economy of India Figure 3: Selected economic data for India, 2006–2021 Human GDP per capita % people living in Year Development (US$) absolute poverty Index (HDI) value 2006 820.0 0.611 55.1 2016 1 714.3 0.624 27.7 2021 2 238.1 0.633 16.4 (Source adapted from: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1272613/india-multidimensional- poverty-index/; https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/; UN Human Development Reports) Extract E 135 million Indians escape absolute poverty in recent years Absolute poverty in India, measured by the number of people living on under US$2.15 a day, has fallen dramatically over the last 15 years. The government’s dedicated focus on improving access to sanitation, nutrition, cooking oil, banking services, drinking water and electricity has led to significant advances in these 5 areas. The $2.3 million provision of subsidised cooking oil has positively transformed lives, with a 14.6 percentage points improvement in the access to cooking oil. (Source adapted from: https://pib.gov.in/) Extract F Buffer stocks in India The Indian government is required to maintain a buffer stock of 11 million tonnes of wheat and 10 million tonnes of rice. The grains are purchased from farmers at the minimum support price and stored in secure warehouses across the country. India, once troubled by famine, has more recently managed to remain self-sufficient in 5 most food categories except edible oils, and is the world’s largest rice exporter. Even during the global health crisis 2020-2022, when the government distributed free food to nearly 800 million people, buffer stocks ran down but not out. Farmers are encouraged to produce more without any consideration of sustainability. (Source adapted from: https://ig.ft.com/india-population/) Extract G Population growth in India “The greatest obstacle in the path of overall economic development is the alarming rate of population growth,” was one Indian government minister’s view in 1967. In the 1970s, the Indian government took radical measures to try to prevent population growth, with little success. 5 Then, in the 1980s and 1990s, India began opening up its economy to the private sector. Policymakers began viewing a growing young population in the form of the so-called demographic dividend – when a majority of a country’s population is of working age (15-64 years) – as an engine for further economic development. In May 2023 India took over from China as the country with the highest population reaching 1.4 billion. However, 10 it needs enough well-paying jobs designed to serve the modern, urban economy. (Source adapted from: https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2023/4/18/overtaking-chinas- population-will-india-gain-or-lose)
(d) Evaluate the microeconomic and macroeconomic reasons for the fall in poverty in India. (25)
June 2025 · Paper 3 · Q2(e) 25 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=8, AO4=9 25-mark essay Either/or emerging and developing economieslabour market
Data and extracts for question 2Sources for use with SECTION B Read Figure 3 and the following Extracts (E to G) before answering Question 2. The economy of India Figure 3: Selected economic data for India, 2006–2021 Human GDP per capita % people living in Year Development (US$) absolute poverty Index (HDI) value 2006 820.0 0.611 55.1 2016 1 714.3 0.624 27.7 2021 2 238.1 0.633 16.4 (Source adapted from: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1272613/india-multidimensional- poverty-index/; https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/; UN Human Development Reports) Extract E 135 million Indians escape absolute poverty in recent years Absolute poverty in India, measured by the number of people living on under US$2.15 a day, has fallen dramatically over the last 15 years. The government’s dedicated focus on improving access to sanitation, nutrition, cooking oil, banking services, drinking water and electricity has led to significant advances in these 5 areas. The $2.3 million provision of subsidised cooking oil has positively transformed lives, with a 14.6 percentage points improvement in the access to cooking oil. (Source adapted from: https://pib.gov.in/) Extract F Buffer stocks in India The Indian government is required to maintain a buffer stock of 11 million tonnes of wheat and 10 million tonnes of rice. The grains are purchased from farmers at the minimum support price and stored in secure warehouses across the country. India, once troubled by famine, has more recently managed to remain self-sufficient in 5 most food categories except edible oils, and is the world’s largest rice exporter. Even during the global health crisis 2020-2022, when the government distributed free food to nearly 800 million people, buffer stocks ran down but not out. Farmers are encouraged to produce more without any consideration of sustainability. (Source adapted from: https://ig.ft.com/india-population/) Extract G Population growth in India “The greatest obstacle in the path of overall economic development is the alarming rate of population growth,” was one Indian government minister’s view in 1967. In the 1970s, the Indian government took radical measures to try to prevent population growth, with little success. 5 Then, in the 1980s and 1990s, India began opening up its economy to the private sector. Policymakers began viewing a growing young population in the form of the so-called demographic dividend – when a majority of a country’s population is of working age (15-64 years) – as an engine for further economic development. In May 2023 India took over from China as the country with the highest population reaching 1.4 billion. However, 10 it needs enough well-paying jobs designed to serve the modern, urban economy. (Source adapted from: https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2023/4/18/overtaking-chinas- population-will-india-gain-or-lose)
(e) Evaluate the microeconomic and macroeconomic effects of rapid increases in population in India. (25)
June 2024 · AS Paper 1 · Q6(f) 20 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=6, AO4=6 20-mark essay Either/or Hard government intervention in marketsindirect taxes and subsidies
Data and extracts for question 6The market for plastic in the UK Figure 1: Trend in the purchase of single‑use plastic bags in millions, UK, 2014 to 2021 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 7 500 2 120 1 750 1 130 1 040 627 496 197 Extract A 10p charge continues to reduce use of plastic carrier bags The 5p charge on single‑use carrier bags was introduced in supermarkets in 2015. The charge was increased to 10p in 2021 and extended to all businesses. The UK Environment Minister said that the plastic bag charge has ended the irrational purchase of billions of single‑use carrier bags, thereby protecting our landscapes and 5 ensuring millions of pounds are redistributed to worthy causes. This was needed as without this legislation, the market is not able to effectively manage the situation. Consumers are now in the habit of bringing reusable carrier bags when shopping. In addition to single‑use carrier bag charges, major retailers have offered bottle deposit return schemes and refillable food and cleaning product options. These provide 10 incentives to consumers to reuse their plastic containers. However, retailers have suggested that most customers do not wish to pay more for cleaning products in reusable packaging. With the average household income falling by 4.3% in 2023, sales of refillable cleaning products are expected to fall from 200 000 to 130 000 this year. 15 (Source adapted from: https://www.circularonline.co.uk/news/) Extract B Plastic packaging tax Food manufacturers have criticised the implementation of a new UK environmental tax, warning it will force them to increase prices for consumers. The 2018 tax was designed to provide incentives to businesses to use recycled plastic in packaging. Businesses manufacturing or importing 10 tonnes or more a year of 5 plastic packaging that contains less than 30% recycled plastic are taxed at £200 a tonne. Plastic packaging containing more than this will be exempt from the tax. Helene Roberts, Chief Executive of Robinson Packaging, said increased prices for the consumer would be an unintended consequence of the tax. “It will just create inflationary pressures within the supply chain and firms may need to pass this on.” A wide range of 10 businesses are affected by the new tax, including retailers importing items such as bin liners, drink bottles and carrier bags. Food manufacturers are particularly impacted as the industry uses 40% of packaging in the UK. (Source adapted from: https://www.ft.com) Extract C Single‑use cups An estimated 2.5 billion single‑use cups are used in the UK every year by consumers buying coffee from chains and cafes, creating approximately 25 000 tonnes of waste. Research has found that while a 25p charge on single‑use cups increases the use of reusable coffee cups in coffee shops, a discount on reusable coffee cups has no impact at 5 all on their use. A 25p charge on single‑use cups increases the use of reusable coffee cups by 3.4%. Environmental messaging in cafes, for example posters about litter, increases the use of reusable coffee cups by 2.3%. The availability of reusable cups leads to an increase of 2.5% whereas the distribution of free reusable cups leads to a further increase of 4.3%. 10 “While the increases for individual measures were modest, the greatest behavioural change was when the measures were combined,” said Wouter Poortinga of Cardiff University. (Source adapted from: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/mar/30/)
(f) Evaluate the likely impact of a tax on plastic food-packaging. Use a diagram to support your answer. (20)
June 2024 · AS Paper 1 · Q6(g) 20 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=6, AO4=6 20-mark essay Either/or government intervention in marketsgovernment failure
Data and extracts for question 6The market for plastic in the UK Figure 1: Trend in the purchase of single‑use plastic bags in millions, UK, 2014 to 2021 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 7 500 2 120 1 750 1 130 1 040 627 496 197 Extract A 10p charge continues to reduce use of plastic carrier bags The 5p charge on single‑use carrier bags was introduced in supermarkets in 2015. The charge was increased to 10p in 2021 and extended to all businesses. The UK Environment Minister said that the plastic bag charge has ended the irrational purchase of billions of single‑use carrier bags, thereby protecting our landscapes and 5 ensuring millions of pounds are redistributed to worthy causes. This was needed as without this legislation, the market is not able to effectively manage the situation. Consumers are now in the habit of bringing reusable carrier bags when shopping. In addition to single‑use carrier bag charges, major retailers have offered bottle deposit return schemes and refillable food and cleaning product options. These provide 10 incentives to consumers to reuse their plastic containers. However, retailers have suggested that most customers do not wish to pay more for cleaning products in reusable packaging. With the average household income falling by 4.3% in 2023, sales of refillable cleaning products are expected to fall from 200 000 to 130 000 this year. 15 (Source adapted from: https://www.circularonline.co.uk/news/) Extract B Plastic packaging tax Food manufacturers have criticised the implementation of a new UK environmental tax, warning it will force them to increase prices for consumers. The 2018 tax was designed to provide incentives to businesses to use recycled plastic in packaging. Businesses manufacturing or importing 10 tonnes or more a year of 5 plastic packaging that contains less than 30% recycled plastic are taxed at £200 a tonne. Plastic packaging containing more than this will be exempt from the tax. Helene Roberts, Chief Executive of Robinson Packaging, said increased prices for the consumer would be an unintended consequence of the tax. “It will just create inflationary pressures within the supply chain and firms may need to pass this on.” A wide range of 10 businesses are affected by the new tax, including retailers importing items such as bin liners, drink bottles and carrier bags. Food manufacturers are particularly impacted as the industry uses 40% of packaging in the UK. (Source adapted from: https://www.ft.com) Extract C Single‑use cups An estimated 2.5 billion single‑use cups are used in the UK every year by consumers buying coffee from chains and cafes, creating approximately 25 000 tonnes of waste. Research has found that while a 25p charge on single‑use cups increases the use of reusable coffee cups in coffee shops, a discount on reusable coffee cups has no impact at 5 all on their use. A 25p charge on single‑use cups increases the use of reusable coffee cups by 3.4%. Environmental messaging in cafes, for example posters about litter, increases the use of reusable coffee cups by 2.3%. The availability of reusable cups leads to an increase of 2.5% whereas the distribution of free reusable cups leads to a further increase of 4.3%. 10 “While the increases for individual measures were modest, the greatest behavioural change was when the measures were combined,” said Wouter Poortinga of Cardiff University. (Source adapted from: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/mar/30/)
(g) Evaluate methods of government intervention which could be used to reduce the market failure associated with plastic waste. Use a diagram to support your answer. (20)
June 2024 · AS Paper 2 · Q6(f) 20 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=6, AO4=6 20-mark essay Either/or macroeconomic objectivesfiscal and monetary policy
Data and extracts for question 6UK monetary policy since the Global Financial Crisis of 2008 Figure 1: UK inflation rate (as measured by the Consumer Prices Index) and UK nominal wage growth, annual percentage change, 2008 to 2019 5 % 4 Nominal wage growth 3 Inflation rate 2 1 0 –1 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘13 ‘14 ‘15 ‘16 ‘17 ‘18 ‘19 (Source: adapted from ONS) Figure 2: UK real GDP, annual percentage change, Q4 2006 to Q4 2019 2 % 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 (Source: adapted from https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/ grossdomesticproductgdp/timeseries/ihyq/qna) Extract A Has monetary policy worked? Between 2008 and 2009, financial markets around the world were crashing and many UK banks were adversely affected by the collapse of the housing market. This reduced access to credit for UK households and businesses. Faced with these large risks, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Bank of 5 England reduced the base interest rate from 5.25% in February 2008 to 0.5% in March 2009. The MPC had known that reducing the base interest rate was not enough alone. It drafted the use of a new idea: quantitative easing (QE). It had bought assets worth £200 billion by November 2009. This QE was later implemented by the USA’s Federal 10 Reserve, and was claimed to be a success. In July 2012 the total spent on QE in the UK amounted to £375 billion. This decision has been credited with preventing the recession, caused by the Global Financial Crisis of 2008, turning into another Great Depression. The UK’s unemployment rate peaked at 8.5% in 2009 but had fallen to 4% in 2019, the lowest since the mid-1970s. 15 In 2016 the MPC further expanded its QE programme by £60 billion and reduced the base interest rate to 0.25%. Households with mortgages benefitted from the low interest rate, enabling them to continue consumption and therefore helping economic recovery. Nevertheless, this has resulted in a rise in household debts. Borrowing on credit cards and personal loans has increased above the levels seen before 2008. 20 Inflation caused by the fall in the exchange rate of the British pound, higher employment levels and nominal wage growth has since directed the MPC to increase base interest rates. It increased the base interest rate to 0.5% in November 2017, and then to 0.75% in March 2018. However, the uncertainty around the UK’s future trade relationship with the EU has meant that increases in the base interest rate were only marginal. 25 Many economists believe that if the UK and the EU are unable to form a trade agreement, base interest rates would need to be decreased again and QE expanded. Conversely, a few economists have argued that QE is no longer effective as a monetary policy instrument. They indicated that the base interest rate was usually reduced by as much as 5% during previous recessions. This is more than the UK can currently manage. Therefore 30 it would also require the government to implement a fiscal policy to deal with any future economic downturn. The Bank of England is, nonetheless, preparing for the worst-case scenario of a recession deeper than the downturn after the Global Financial Crisis of 2008. (Source: adapted from ‘The verdict on 10 years of quantitative easing’, Richard Partington, The Guardian, https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/ mar/08/the-verdict-on-10-years-of-quantitative-easing)
(f) Evaluate whether expansionary demand-side policies lead to conflicts between macroeconomic objectives. (20)
June 2024 · AS Paper 2 · Q6(g) 20 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=6, AO4=6 20-mark essay Either/or fiscal and monetary policymacroeconomic objectives
Data and extracts for question 6UK monetary policy since the Global Financial Crisis of 2008 Figure 1: UK inflation rate (as measured by the Consumer Prices Index) and UK nominal wage growth, annual percentage change, 2008 to 2019 5 % 4 Nominal wage growth 3 Inflation rate 2 1 0 –1 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘13 ‘14 ‘15 ‘16 ‘17 ‘18 ‘19 (Source: adapted from ONS) Figure 2: UK real GDP, annual percentage change, Q4 2006 to Q4 2019 2 % 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 (Source: adapted from https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/ grossdomesticproductgdp/timeseries/ihyq/qna) Extract A Has monetary policy worked? Between 2008 and 2009, financial markets around the world were crashing and many UK banks were adversely affected by the collapse of the housing market. This reduced access to credit for UK households and businesses. Faced with these large risks, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Bank of 5 England reduced the base interest rate from 5.25% in February 2008 to 0.5% in March 2009. The MPC had known that reducing the base interest rate was not enough alone. It drafted the use of a new idea: quantitative easing (QE). It had bought assets worth £200 billion by November 2009. This QE was later implemented by the USA’s Federal 10 Reserve, and was claimed to be a success. In July 2012 the total spent on QE in the UK amounted to £375 billion. This decision has been credited with preventing the recession, caused by the Global Financial Crisis of 2008, turning into another Great Depression. The UK’s unemployment rate peaked at 8.5% in 2009 but had fallen to 4% in 2019, the lowest since the mid-1970s. 15 In 2016 the MPC further expanded its QE programme by £60 billion and reduced the base interest rate to 0.25%. Households with mortgages benefitted from the low interest rate, enabling them to continue consumption and therefore helping economic recovery. Nevertheless, this has resulted in a rise in household debts. Borrowing on credit cards and personal loans has increased above the levels seen before 2008. 20 Inflation caused by the fall in the exchange rate of the British pound, higher employment levels and nominal wage growth has since directed the MPC to increase base interest rates. It increased the base interest rate to 0.5% in November 2017, and then to 0.75% in March 2018. However, the uncertainty around the UK’s future trade relationship with the EU has meant that increases in the base interest rate were only marginal. 25 Many economists believe that if the UK and the EU are unable to form a trade agreement, base interest rates would need to be decreased again and QE expanded. Conversely, a few economists have argued that QE is no longer effective as a monetary policy instrument. They indicated that the base interest rate was usually reduced by as much as 5% during previous recessions. This is more than the UK can currently manage. Therefore 30 it would also require the government to implement a fiscal policy to deal with any future economic downturn. The Bank of England is, nonetheless, preparing for the worst-case scenario of a recession deeper than the downturn after the Global Financial Crisis of 2008. (Source: adapted from ‘The verdict on 10 years of quantitative easing’, Richard Partington, The Guardian, https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/ mar/08/the-verdict-on-10-years-of-quantitative-easing)
(g) Evaluate whether the MPC has been successful in meeting the UK’s macroeconomic objectives between 2008 and 2019. (20)
June 2024 · Paper 1 · Q7 25 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=8, AO4=9 25-mark essay Either/or revenues costs and profits
7 A small hotel in Scarborough has seen its energy bills increase from £2 000 to £8 000 per month. Small businesses do not have the energy management teams of larger companies to negotiate better deals. (Source adapted from: https://www.ft.com/content/d07797e7- 2eb7-4240-b15d-692b39510def) Evaluate the microeconomic effects of rising energy bills on the hotel industry or an industry of your choice.
June 2024 · Paper 1 · Q8 25 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=8, AO4=9 25-mark essay Either/or Hard monopsony and contestability
8 Bytedance, which owns TikTok, has launched its own fragrance ‘Emotif’. The Beijing-based social media giant has already entered the food and drink markets. (Source adapted from: https://www.businessoffashion.com/news/china/ tiktoks-parent-company-enters-chinas-perfume-market/) Evaluate the level of contestability in the fragrance industry or another industry of your choice.
June 2024 · Paper 2 · Q7 25 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=8, AO4=9 25-mark essay Either/or balance of paymentsmacroeconomic policy in a global context
7 In 2021 Brazil’s current account deficit on the balance of payments was US$46.12 billion. The Central Bank of Brazil intervened to sell its own currency, the real, on September 23rd 2022. This was the first time it has intervened in foreign currency markets since December 2021. (Source adapted from: https://www.statista.com/statistics and https://www.centralbanking. com/central-banks/reserves/foreign-exchange/7953193/brazil-makes-first-fx-intervention- of-the-year) Evaluate macroeconomic policies that could be used to reduce a current account deficit. Refer to a country of your choice in your answer.
June 2024 · Paper 2 · Q8 25 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=8, AO4=9 25-mark essay Either/or globalisation and trade
8 In 2020, exports as a share of world GDP were 12% higher than in 2000, almost twice as high as 50 years ago. (Source adapted from: https://www.dhl.com/content/dam/dhl/global/dhl-spotlight/ documents/pdf/2021-gci-update-report.pdf) Evaluate the possible factors contributing to globalisation.
June 2024 · Paper 3 · Q1(d) 25 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=8, AO4=9 25-mark essay Either/or labour marketpoverty and inequality
Data and extracts for question 1The energy market Figure 1: UK wholesale gas prices per therm, 2021, in pence 500p Price per therm 400p 352p 300p 200p 100p 0p Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Figure 2: Number of firms supplying gas and electricity in the UK, 2004–2021 80 60 40 20 0 2004 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 21 Gas and electricity Electricity Gas Extract A Rising gas prices UK consumers are some of the biggest users of gas. 85% of homes use gas central heating, and gas generates a third of the country’s electricity. North Sea gas is running out – and as Britain has replaced coal-fired energy production with wind power in order to reduce carbon emissions, it has become dependent on gas imports. 5 Almost all UK businesses face significant rises in fuel costs over the next few months, and there is no substitute for energy, at least in the short run – an almost perfect example of price inelastic demand. (Source: adapted from https://www.theecoexperts.co.uk/ blog/reasons-for-uk-gas-price-increase) Extract B The UK gas market is broken During the past decade the government has allowed new entrants into the retail energy market with business models that left them ill-prepared to achieve long term business growth. Now the UK must choose between letting its energy market collapse and offering large subsidies for energy retailers. 5 The problem began in the 1980s and 1990s, when privatisation created an oligopolistic energy market dominated by the “Big Six”, which paid their shareholders high dividends and their bosses excessive salaries. The government responded to anger over high energy bills with further liberalisation. Some of the new entrants were innovative, such as Bulb, which offered consumption-tracking apps, and Octopus, which discouraged 10 consumption when demand was high with dynamic pricing. But most were under- capitalised and produced no energy, merely buying it on global wholesale markets and selling it on. Some paid little attention to ensuring continuity of supply or forward buying of gas. The constraints on energy retailers worsened in 2017 with the closure of a big 15 gas-storage facility, which left the UK able to store just 2% of its annual demand. Other big gas importing countries, by contrast, can store 20%–30%. The risks rose further in 2019, when the government capped consumer prices in response to continued complaints about high energy bills. The perfect storm came in the summer of 2021. As economies opened up, global 20 demand for energy rose. Gas supply in Russia, a big producer, was disrupted, and unusually calm weather reduced UK wind turbine energy production to 11% of capacity. In August Ofgem, the industry regulator, said that from October the firms would be able to raise prices for households by 54%. But since then the wholesale price of gas paid by UK energy firms has risen by more than 70%. The result is that UK energy firms are tied 25 into contracts to supply gas to households at far less than they must pay to get it. (Source: adapted from https://www.economist.com/britain/britains-gas-market-is-broken/) Extract C The gender pay gap in the oil and gas industry Despite best efforts to try to attract more women into the oil and gas industry, females are still hugely under-represented in science, technology, engineering and maths careers, whether school leavers, graduates or experienced workers. Women hold under 25% of careers in these areas, and typically hold more non-technical roles, which can attract 5 lower salaries than technical disciplines. There is an even smaller female representation in the offshore workforce (3.6%) e.g. working on rigs in the North Sea, an area that pays higher salaries than onshore work. Despite continued efforts there is still a lack of female applications. Only 5% of the applications to the technical apprentice programme were female, of which half withdrew 10 their applications at the first stage of the recruitment process. There is also a low representation of females in senior leadership roles within the oil and gas industry, especially in technical positions. Women also generally take up part-time positions which are typically lower paid. This has resulted in the oil and gas industry having an average gap in hourly pay of 25%. 15 In the majority of developed countries, women have made substantial progress in the labour market since the 1970s, with both wages and labour force participation increasing relative to that for men. Notwithstanding these large improvements, women still earn less than ‘comparable’ men in all developed countries and, since the 2000s, progress for women in the labour market seems to have slowed. 20 (Source: adapted from https://www.harbourenergy.com/media/2a2nmavb/chr-18311- 01-gender-pay-gap-2020-v6-final.pdf and https://ftp.iza.org/dp10975.pdf)
(d) Evaluate the microeconomic and macroeconomic factors that explain gender-based wage differences in the UK oil and gas industry. (25)
June 2024 · Paper 3 · Q1(e) 25 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=8, AO4=9 25-mark essay Either/or specialisation and division of labourglobalisation and trade
Data and extracts for question 1The energy market Figure 1: UK wholesale gas prices per therm, 2021, in pence 500p Price per therm 400p 352p 300p 200p 100p 0p Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Figure 2: Number of firms supplying gas and electricity in the UK, 2004–2021 80 60 40 20 0 2004 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 21 Gas and electricity Electricity Gas Extract A Rising gas prices UK consumers are some of the biggest users of gas. 85% of homes use gas central heating, and gas generates a third of the country’s electricity. North Sea gas is running out – and as Britain has replaced coal-fired energy production with wind power in order to reduce carbon emissions, it has become dependent on gas imports. 5 Almost all UK businesses face significant rises in fuel costs over the next few months, and there is no substitute for energy, at least in the short run – an almost perfect example of price inelastic demand. (Source: adapted from https://www.theecoexperts.co.uk/ blog/reasons-for-uk-gas-price-increase) Extract B The UK gas market is broken During the past decade the government has allowed new entrants into the retail energy market with business models that left them ill-prepared to achieve long term business growth. Now the UK must choose between letting its energy market collapse and offering large subsidies for energy retailers. 5 The problem began in the 1980s and 1990s, when privatisation created an oligopolistic energy market dominated by the “Big Six”, which paid their shareholders high dividends and their bosses excessive salaries. The government responded to anger over high energy bills with further liberalisation. Some of the new entrants were innovative, such as Bulb, which offered consumption-tracking apps, and Octopus, which discouraged 10 consumption when demand was high with dynamic pricing. But most were under- capitalised and produced no energy, merely buying it on global wholesale markets and selling it on. Some paid little attention to ensuring continuity of supply or forward buying of gas. The constraints on energy retailers worsened in 2017 with the closure of a big 15 gas-storage facility, which left the UK able to store just 2% of its annual demand. Other big gas importing countries, by contrast, can store 20%–30%. The risks rose further in 2019, when the government capped consumer prices in response to continued complaints about high energy bills. The perfect storm came in the summer of 2021. As economies opened up, global 20 demand for energy rose. Gas supply in Russia, a big producer, was disrupted, and unusually calm weather reduced UK wind turbine energy production to 11% of capacity. In August Ofgem, the industry regulator, said that from October the firms would be able to raise prices for households by 54%. But since then the wholesale price of gas paid by UK energy firms has risen by more than 70%. The result is that UK energy firms are tied 25 into contracts to supply gas to households at far less than they must pay to get it. (Source: adapted from https://www.economist.com/britain/britains-gas-market-is-broken/) Extract C The gender pay gap in the oil and gas industry Despite best efforts to try to attract more women into the oil and gas industry, females are still hugely under-represented in science, technology, engineering and maths careers, whether school leavers, graduates or experienced workers. Women hold under 25% of careers in these areas, and typically hold more non-technical roles, which can attract 5 lower salaries than technical disciplines. There is an even smaller female representation in the offshore workforce (3.6%) e.g. working on rigs in the North Sea, an area that pays higher salaries than onshore work. Despite continued efforts there is still a lack of female applications. Only 5% of the applications to the technical apprentice programme were female, of which half withdrew 10 their applications at the first stage of the recruitment process. There is also a low representation of females in senior leadership roles within the oil and gas industry, especially in technical positions. Women also generally take up part-time positions which are typically lower paid. This has resulted in the oil and gas industry having an average gap in hourly pay of 25%. 15 In the majority of developed countries, women have made substantial progress in the labour market since the 1970s, with both wages and labour force participation increasing relative to that for men. Notwithstanding these large improvements, women still earn less than ‘comparable’ men in all developed countries and, since the 2000s, progress for women in the labour market seems to have slowed. 20 (Source: adapted from https://www.harbourenergy.com/media/2a2nmavb/chr-18311- 01-gender-pay-gap-2020-v6-final.pdf and https://ftp.iza.org/dp10975.pdf)
(e) Evaluate the microeconomic and macroeconomic advantages for a country specialising in energy production using gas. (25)
June 2024 · Paper 3 · Q2(d) 25 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=8, AO4=9 25-mark essay Either/or revenues costs and profitsfiscal and monetary policy
Data and extracts for question 2Ghana – cocoa and chocolate production Figure 3: World’s largest cocoa growers and chocolate producers Cocoa growers Chocolate producers Ivory Coast 46% Germany 17% Ghana 18% Belgium 11% Indonesia 14% Italy 7.4% Nigeria 7% US 7.2% (Source: adapted from International Cocoa Association www.icco.org December 2021 and The Telegraph.co.uk accessed 24/2/22) Extract D From a managed to a floating exchange rate Ghana’s currency, the cedi, has depreciated significantly against major currencies, especially the US dollar (US$), since the adoption of the floating exchange rate system in 1992. From 1983 to 1992 it operated a managed exchange rate. Since the liberalisation of the foreign exchange market there have substantial swings and on average the cedi has 5 depreciated 98% against the US dollar. The cedi to US dollar rate has been very volatile recently, causing macroeconomic instability and limiting economic growth. (Source adapted from: https://www.theigc.org/project/on-the-causes-and-effect-of- exchange-rate-volatility-on-economic-growth-evidence-from-ghana/ and https://www.scirp.org/journal/paperinformation.aspx?paperid=95492) Extract E There is a lot of money in chocolate but the growers of cocoa see very little of it. In 2020 the chocolate retail industry was worth £78 billion, but Ghana – the world’s second largest cocoa producer – earned just over £1 billion. Cocoa farmers in Ghana now make roughly $1 a day (this often includes being subsidised by the Ghanaian government). This is a familiar pattern for many African countries where the economy 5 is still shaped by a colonial relationship in which they export commodities to be processed elsewhere. Ghana currently processes about 30% of its cocoa crop into chocolate, meaning that the exports can earn high prices. Despite plans for expanding the domestic chocolate industry there are still many obstacles in the way. The equipment to make chocolate is 10 very expensive and there is neither a local sugar nor dairy industry. Imported milk and sugar would increase the cost of production significantly, with the added problem that foreign currency would be needed. Producing chocolate requires consistent refrigeration, and the high cost of the equipment to achieve that is a major obstacle for entrepreneurs without substantial funds. There is an inconsistent supply of energy in rural parts of 15 Ghana. An alternative, making teas and wines using cocoa, can make 20 times more revenue than the raw beans, but they do not have the mass market appeal and high profits of chocolate. Access to funds is a big problem and one farmer, Nana Aduna, says that high interest rates on bank loans are an issue for start-up businesses and at the moment he cannot 20 afford to borrow money. “You cannot grow a business when you have to service interest rates of 18%–20% or even more,” he says. But the government has pledged to address these structural issues, using supply side policies. The Trade and Industry Minister announced that industrialisation is the focus of government policy. “It only makes sense that the most important commodity in 25 our country, which is cocoa… should become the target for a major programme of industrialisation,” he says. The ‘One District One Factory’ programme aims to kickstart industrialisation by providing the infrastructure for Ghana’s farms, by establishing processing plants in some of the big cocoa-growing areas. It has become easier for the private sector to invest in food 30 processing, and there is a big tax rebate available to processing companies that set up in the country’s enterprise zones – designated areas to encourage economic activity – in a bid to help them export. (Source: adapted from https://www.newsbreak.com/news/2201853748349/ghana-s- farmers-eye-sweet-success-from-chocolate and https://www.indepthnews.net/ index.php/the-world/africa/4495-ghana-starts-with-cocoa-to-end-neocolonial- trading-ties and https://www.brookings.edu/blog/africa-in-focus/2020/09/03/ pathways-to-structural-transformation-of-the-ghanaian-economy-and- some-roadblocks/ and https://www.ghanaweb.com/GhanaHomePage/ business/Speculators-driving-interbank-retail-FX-rates-gap-1468375) Extract F A new trade bloc for Africa The African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) has been signed by all 55 member states of the African Union, including Ghana, Nigeria, and South Africa. This brings together 1.2 billion people with a combined gross domestic product (GDP) of more than $2 trillion as of 2023. 5 The agreement commits countries to removing tariffs on 90% of goods, with other goods to be phased in later. The agreement also liberalises services and aims to tackle non-tariff barriers which reduce trade between African countries, such as long delays at the borders. (Source adapted from: https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2018/3/20/ african-continental-free-trade-area-what-you-need-to-know)
(d) Evaluate the microeconomic and macroeconomic effects of high interest rates in Ghana, or another developing country of your choice. (25)
June 2024 · Paper 3 · Q2(e) 25 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=8, AO4=9 25-mark essay Either/or trading blocs and protectionismrevenues costs and profits
Data and extracts for question 2Ghana – cocoa and chocolate production Figure 3: World’s largest cocoa growers and chocolate producers Cocoa growers Chocolate producers Ivory Coast 46% Germany 17% Ghana 18% Belgium 11% Indonesia 14% Italy 7.4% Nigeria 7% US 7.2% (Source: adapted from International Cocoa Association www.icco.org December 2021 and The Telegraph.co.uk accessed 24/2/22) Extract D From a managed to a floating exchange rate Ghana’s currency, the cedi, has depreciated significantly against major currencies, especially the US dollar (US$), since the adoption of the floating exchange rate system in 1992. From 1983 to 1992 it operated a managed exchange rate. Since the liberalisation of the foreign exchange market there have substantial swings and on average the cedi has 5 depreciated 98% against the US dollar. The cedi to US dollar rate has been very volatile recently, causing macroeconomic instability and limiting economic growth. (Source adapted from: https://www.theigc.org/project/on-the-causes-and-effect-of- exchange-rate-volatility-on-economic-growth-evidence-from-ghana/ and https://www.scirp.org/journal/paperinformation.aspx?paperid=95492) Extract E There is a lot of money in chocolate but the growers of cocoa see very little of it. In 2020 the chocolate retail industry was worth £78 billion, but Ghana – the world’s second largest cocoa producer – earned just over £1 billion. Cocoa farmers in Ghana now make roughly $1 a day (this often includes being subsidised by the Ghanaian government). This is a familiar pattern for many African countries where the economy 5 is still shaped by a colonial relationship in which they export commodities to be processed elsewhere. Ghana currently processes about 30% of its cocoa crop into chocolate, meaning that the exports can earn high prices. Despite plans for expanding the domestic chocolate industry there are still many obstacles in the way. The equipment to make chocolate is 10 very expensive and there is neither a local sugar nor dairy industry. Imported milk and sugar would increase the cost of production significantly, with the added problem that foreign currency would be needed. Producing chocolate requires consistent refrigeration, and the high cost of the equipment to achieve that is a major obstacle for entrepreneurs without substantial funds. There is an inconsistent supply of energy in rural parts of 15 Ghana. An alternative, making teas and wines using cocoa, can make 20 times more revenue than the raw beans, but they do not have the mass market appeal and high profits of chocolate. Access to funds is a big problem and one farmer, Nana Aduna, says that high interest rates on bank loans are an issue for start-up businesses and at the moment he cannot 20 afford to borrow money. “You cannot grow a business when you have to service interest rates of 18%–20% or even more,” he says. But the government has pledged to address these structural issues, using supply side policies. The Trade and Industry Minister announced that industrialisation is the focus of government policy. “It only makes sense that the most important commodity in 25 our country, which is cocoa… should become the target for a major programme of industrialisation,” he says. The ‘One District One Factory’ programme aims to kickstart industrialisation by providing the infrastructure for Ghana’s farms, by establishing processing plants in some of the big cocoa-growing areas. It has become easier for the private sector to invest in food 30 processing, and there is a big tax rebate available to processing companies that set up in the country’s enterprise zones – designated areas to encourage economic activity – in a bid to help them export. (Source: adapted from https://www.newsbreak.com/news/2201853748349/ghana-s- farmers-eye-sweet-success-from-chocolate and https://www.indepthnews.net/ index.php/the-world/africa/4495-ghana-starts-with-cocoa-to-end-neocolonial- trading-ties and https://www.brookings.edu/blog/africa-in-focus/2020/09/03/ pathways-to-structural-transformation-of-the-ghanaian-economy-and- some-roadblocks/ and https://www.ghanaweb.com/GhanaHomePage/ business/Speculators-driving-interbank-retail-FX-rates-gap-1468375) Extract F A new trade bloc for Africa The African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) has been signed by all 55 member states of the African Union, including Ghana, Nigeria, and South Africa. This brings together 1.2 billion people with a combined gross domestic product (GDP) of more than $2 trillion as of 2023. 5 The agreement commits countries to removing tariffs on 90% of goods, with other goods to be phased in later. The agreement also liberalises services and aims to tackle non-tariff barriers which reduce trade between African countries, such as long delays at the borders. (Source adapted from: https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2018/3/20/ african-continental-free-trade-area-what-you-need-to-know)
(e) Evaluate the microeconomic and macroeconomic effects of Ghana joining the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (Extract F). (25)
June 2023 · AS Paper 1 · Q6(f) 20 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=6, AO4=6 20-mark essay Either/or government intervention in marketsexternalities
Data and extracts for question 6The market for television content Figure 1: Elasticities of demand for streamed television services, UK, 2021 Price elasticity of demand -0.6 Income elasticity of demand 1.6 (Source: adapted from https://www.consultancy.uk/news/24986/covid-19- presents-netflix-with-chance-to-hike-prices) Figure 2: Market shares of streamed content providers, Europe, 2021 39% Netflix 29% Amazon 9% Apple TV+ 7% Disney+ 3% DZN 2% Viaplay 1% TIM Vision 1% Sky Now Tv 1% HBO 1% IPLA 7% Others 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% Market share (Source: adapted from Statista 2021) Extract A The growth of streamed television content Netflix currently has 13 million UK subscribers, who typically pay £9.99 a month to the US based private sector firm. At this price, up to two users can view the television content at the same time. The demand for individual firms’ streamed television content boomed when people were forced to stay at home and has only begun to slow recently as more 5 firms enter the market e.g. Amazon Prime Video. The launch of Disney+ at the end of 2019, including original content such as the £74 million Star Wars TV spin-off The Mandalorian, resulted in the service adding more UK subscribers in a year in 2020 than any other streaming platform has ever managed. However, the costs of providing streaming television content have risen. Consumers now 10 expect original content, for example Stranger Things which costs around £10 million an episode to make. Furthermore, advertising in a saturated market is expensive. In 2021, Netflix put up the price of its most-popular package by £1 a month to £9.99. Fortunately for Netflix, its subscriber demand has proven price inelastic. Just 3% of customers in a survey said they would definitely cancel their subscription after Netflix’s 15 latest price rise. (Source: adapted from ‘As UK hits peak, Netflix the streaming giant will have to work harder’, The Guardian, Monday 3 January 2022) Extract B Is television content a public good? Public service broadcasting in the UK is made up of a number of parts. First, there are the main UK-wide public service broadcasters (PSBs). There is the publicly funded BBC, and the publicly owned Channel 4 which is funded through advertisements. The BBC was established in 1922 by a Royal Charter. It is mainly funded through the TV 5 licence fee, which costs £159 a year and is a compulsory charge for those who watch live TV on any device. Live TV and catch-up services are free to view and do not restrict household usage. Without the licence fee very few people would pay due to the free rider problem. The BBC’s Charter sets out its five public purposes: 10 • To provide impartial news and information • To support learning for people of all ages • To show the most creative, highest quality and distinctive televised content • To provide content for minority groups which would not be profitable for a private firm 15 • To reflect the UK, its culture and values to the world. (Source: adapted from https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm5801/cmselect/ cmcumeds/156/15604, and ‘BBC licence fee to be abolished in 2027 and funding frozen’, The Guardian, Sunday 16 January 2022) Extract C The environmental impact of streaming television content The carbon footprint produced by watching a month of Netflix programmes is equivalent to driving a car to Saturn. Every activity in the chain required to stream video, from the use of huge datacentres and transmission over Wi-Fi and broadband to watching the content on a device, requires electricity. The majority of this is generated by emitting CO2. 5 Modern flatscreen televisions use significant amounts of energy. There’s very little a government can do about this in a free market dominated by US firms. The focus of any government intervention could be to encourage alternative forms of entertainment and recreation, support the development of more energy efficient devices, to improve information on the environmental effects or to use regulation to limit 10 viewing hours. (Source: adapted from ‘Streaming’s dirty secret: how viewing Netflix top 10 creates vast quantity of CO2’, The Guardian, Friday 29 October 2021)
(f) Evaluate possible methods of government intervention to reduce the environmental damage caused by the consumption of television content. (20)
June 2023 · AS Paper 1 · Q6(g) 20 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=6, AO4=6 20-mark essay Either/or economic systemsexternalities
Data and extracts for question 6The market for television content Figure 1: Elasticities of demand for streamed television services, UK, 2021 Price elasticity of demand -0.6 Income elasticity of demand 1.6 (Source: adapted from https://www.consultancy.uk/news/24986/covid-19- presents-netflix-with-chance-to-hike-prices) Figure 2: Market shares of streamed content providers, Europe, 2021 39% Netflix 29% Amazon 9% Apple TV+ 7% Disney+ 3% DZN 2% Viaplay 1% TIM Vision 1% Sky Now Tv 1% HBO 1% IPLA 7% Others 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% Market share (Source: adapted from Statista 2021) Extract A The growth of streamed television content Netflix currently has 13 million UK subscribers, who typically pay £9.99 a month to the US based private sector firm. At this price, up to two users can view the television content at the same time. The demand for individual firms’ streamed television content boomed when people were forced to stay at home and has only begun to slow recently as more 5 firms enter the market e.g. Amazon Prime Video. The launch of Disney+ at the end of 2019, including original content such as the £74 million Star Wars TV spin-off The Mandalorian, resulted in the service adding more UK subscribers in a year in 2020 than any other streaming platform has ever managed. However, the costs of providing streaming television content have risen. Consumers now 10 expect original content, for example Stranger Things which costs around £10 million an episode to make. Furthermore, advertising in a saturated market is expensive. In 2021, Netflix put up the price of its most-popular package by £1 a month to £9.99. Fortunately for Netflix, its subscriber demand has proven price inelastic. Just 3% of customers in a survey said they would definitely cancel their subscription after Netflix’s 15 latest price rise. (Source: adapted from ‘As UK hits peak, Netflix the streaming giant will have to work harder’, The Guardian, Monday 3 January 2022) Extract B Is television content a public good? Public service broadcasting in the UK is made up of a number of parts. First, there are the main UK-wide public service broadcasters (PSBs). There is the publicly funded BBC, and the publicly owned Channel 4 which is funded through advertisements. The BBC was established in 1922 by a Royal Charter. It is mainly funded through the TV 5 licence fee, which costs £159 a year and is a compulsory charge for those who watch live TV on any device. Live TV and catch-up services are free to view and do not restrict household usage. Without the licence fee very few people would pay due to the free rider problem. The BBC’s Charter sets out its five public purposes: 10 • To provide impartial news and information • To support learning for people of all ages • To show the most creative, highest quality and distinctive televised content • To provide content for minority groups which would not be profitable for a private firm 15 • To reflect the UK, its culture and values to the world. (Source: adapted from https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm5801/cmselect/ cmcumeds/156/15604, and ‘BBC licence fee to be abolished in 2027 and funding frozen’, The Guardian, Sunday 16 January 2022) Extract C The environmental impact of streaming television content The carbon footprint produced by watching a month of Netflix programmes is equivalent to driving a car to Saturn. Every activity in the chain required to stream video, from the use of huge datacentres and transmission over Wi-Fi and broadband to watching the content on a device, requires electricity. The majority of this is generated by emitting CO2. 5 Modern flatscreen televisions use significant amounts of energy. There’s very little a government can do about this in a free market dominated by US firms. The focus of any government intervention could be to encourage alternative forms of entertainment and recreation, support the development of more energy efficient devices, to improve information on the environmental effects or to use regulation to limit 10 viewing hours. (Source: adapted from ‘Streaming’s dirty secret: how viewing Netflix top 10 creates vast quantity of CO2’, The Guardian, Friday 29 October 2021)
(g) Evaluate the possible disadvantages of a free market approach to the provision of television content. (20)
June 2023 · AS Paper 2 · Q6(f) 20 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=6, AO4=6 20-mark essay Either/or Hard aggregate demandbalance of payments
Data and extracts for question 6UK balance of trade and inflation Figure 1: UK balance of trade in goods and services, January 2020 to October 2021 8 £ billion 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 Jan 2020 Apr 2020 Jul 2020 Oct 2020 Jan 2021 Apr 2021 Jul 2021 Oct 2021 (Source adapted from: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/balance-of-trade) Figure 2: UK inflation rate as measured by annual percentage changes in the Consumer Prices Index (CPI), January 2020 to October 2021 6 % 5 4.2 4 3.2 3.1 3 2.5 2.1 2.0 1.8 2 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.0 0.8 1 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.2 0 Jan 2020 Apr 2020 Jul 2020 Oct 2020 Jan 2021 Apr 2021 Jul 2021 Oct 2021 (Source adapted from: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/inflation-cpi) Extract A Balance of trade in goods and services Rising imports from non-EU countries have increased the UK’s trade deficit in the third quarter of 2021. This was as a result of the UK strengthening its trading relationships with countries outside the EU. An 11.2% increase in imports from non-EU countries has increased the UK’s trade deficit to nearly £7 billion. 5 Moreover, exports to non-EU countries were £0.8 billion lower than exports to EU countries. Despite the overall trade balance being in deficit, the UK services trade balance is in surplus, reflecting the economy’s heavy reliance on services. The trade in 10 services surplus increased by £2.2 billion to £35.6 billion. This was mostly as a result of an increase in the export of financial services. (Source: adapted from https://www.cityam.com/swelling- non-eu-imports-widens-uk-trade-deficit) Extract B Inflation In December 2021 the rate of inflation in the UK rose to 5.4%, its highest rate in 30 years. The speed of increase has taken economists by surprise. The Bank of England expected inflation to peak at this rate, but not until April 2022. The rate was more than two-and-a-half times its 2% inflation target. 5 Transport costs were the biggest contributor to rising inflation, with petrol prices increasing by over 5%. Moreover, supply chain bottlenecks constrained access to raw materials and limited the number of new products being sold in the market. At the same time, economists warned that the demand for goods and services in the UK economy was quickly increasing. This was a result of the easing of the 10 restrictions associated with the global health crisis. The high rate of inflation would normally be enough to prompt a significant increase in the base rate of interest by the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). Despite the lower rates of economic growth, the MPC increased the base interest rate from 0.1% to 0.5% in February 2022. 15 (Source: adapted from ‘UK inflation hits highest level in a decade’, FT, https://www.ft.com/content/dd5edcd1-2e70-4910-b642- 269574b4bcdd; ‘What does the UK’s soaring inflation rate mean for you?’, The Guardian, https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/ dec/15/what-does-uk-soaring-inflation-rate-mean)
(f) Evaluate the main influences on the UK’s net trade balance. (20)
June 2023 · AS Paper 2 · Q6(g) 20 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=6, AO4=6 20-mark essay Either/or fiscal and monetary policyinflation
Data and extracts for question 6UK balance of trade and inflation Figure 1: UK balance of trade in goods and services, January 2020 to October 2021 8 £ billion 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 Jan 2020 Apr 2020 Jul 2020 Oct 2020 Jan 2021 Apr 2021 Jul 2021 Oct 2021 (Source adapted from: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/balance-of-trade) Figure 2: UK inflation rate as measured by annual percentage changes in the Consumer Prices Index (CPI), January 2020 to October 2021 6 % 5 4.2 4 3.2 3.1 3 2.5 2.1 2.0 1.8 2 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.0 0.8 1 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.2 0 Jan 2020 Apr 2020 Jul 2020 Oct 2020 Jan 2021 Apr 2021 Jul 2021 Oct 2021 (Source adapted from: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/inflation-cpi) Extract A Balance of trade in goods and services Rising imports from non-EU countries have increased the UK’s trade deficit in the third quarter of 2021. This was as a result of the UK strengthening its trading relationships with countries outside the EU. An 11.2% increase in imports from non-EU countries has increased the UK’s trade deficit to nearly £7 billion. 5 Moreover, exports to non-EU countries were £0.8 billion lower than exports to EU countries. Despite the overall trade balance being in deficit, the UK services trade balance is in surplus, reflecting the economy’s heavy reliance on services. The trade in 10 services surplus increased by £2.2 billion to £35.6 billion. This was mostly as a result of an increase in the export of financial services. (Source: adapted from https://www.cityam.com/swelling- non-eu-imports-widens-uk-trade-deficit) Extract B Inflation In December 2021 the rate of inflation in the UK rose to 5.4%, its highest rate in 30 years. The speed of increase has taken economists by surprise. The Bank of England expected inflation to peak at this rate, but not until April 2022. The rate was more than two-and-a-half times its 2% inflation target. 5 Transport costs were the biggest contributor to rising inflation, with petrol prices increasing by over 5%. Moreover, supply chain bottlenecks constrained access to raw materials and limited the number of new products being sold in the market. At the same time, economists warned that the demand for goods and services in the UK economy was quickly increasing. This was a result of the easing of the 10 restrictions associated with the global health crisis. The high rate of inflation would normally be enough to prompt a significant increase in the base rate of interest by the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). Despite the lower rates of economic growth, the MPC increased the base interest rate from 0.1% to 0.5% in February 2022. 15 (Source: adapted from ‘UK inflation hits highest level in a decade’, FT, https://www.ft.com/content/dd5edcd1-2e70-4910-b642- 269574b4bcdd; ‘What does the UK’s soaring inflation rate mean for you?’, The Guardian, https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/ dec/15/what-does-uk-soaring-inflation-rate-mean)
(g) Evaluate how interest rates are used to control UK inflation. (20)
June 2023 · Paper 1 · Q7 25 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=8, AO4=9 25-mark essay Either/or government intervention in marketscompetition policy and regulation
7 The average UK household energy bill (gas and electric combined) rose 80% from £1 971 in 2021 to £3 549 in 2022. (Source adapted from: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/consumer-affairs/ energy-price-cap-rise-october-2022-what-happen-household-bills/) Evaluate possible methods of government intervention to control household energy bills in the UK.
June 2023 · Paper 1 · Q8 25 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=8, AO4=9 25-mark essay Either/or government intervention in marketsexternalities
8 Using 2021 estimates of carbon emissions, it is estimated that a petrol car journey from London to Glasgow emits approximately 3.3 times more carbon dioxide per passenger than the equivalent journey by train. (Source adapted from: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/transport-and- environment-statistics-autumn-2021/transport-and-environment-statistics-autumn-2021) Evaluate possible methods of government intervention to reduce carbon emissions caused by road transport in the UK.
June 2023 · Paper 2 · Q7 25 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=8, AO4=9 25-mark essay Either/or international competitiveness
7 In 2022 the value of UK exports fell by 14% compared with 2020. In contrast, the global average increase in exports was 8.2% over the same time period. The UK’s competitiveness also fell, dropping five places from 18th in 2021 to 23rd in 2022 in the world competitiveness rankings. (Sources: adapted from https://www.ft.com/content/021c629d-5853-4111-9600- ab5f0eb65a35 and https://www.imd.org/centers/world-competitiveness-center/rankings/ world-competitiveness) Evaluate macroeconomic policies that could be used to increase international competitiveness in the UK’s export markets.
June 2023 · Paper 2 · Q8 25 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=8, AO4=9 25-mark essay Either/or supply side policiesfiscal and monetary policy
8 UK inflation, as measured by the CPI, rose to 10.1% in the 12 months to July 2022, compared to 2.0% in the 12 months to July 2021. (Source: adapted from https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/ consumerpriceinflation/july2022) Evaluate macroeconomic policies, apart from monetary policy, the UK government could use to reduce inflation.
June 2023 · Paper 3 · Q1(d) 25 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=8, AO4=9 25-mark essay Either/or macroeconomic policy in a global contextlabour market
Data and extracts for question 1The UK economy Figure 1: UK gas prices in pence per therm, August 2002 to August 2022 600 500 400 Pence per 300 therm 200 100 0 Aug Aug Aug 2002 2012 2022 Figure 2: UK inflation, CPI, August 2002 to August 2022 10 9.9 8 6 (%) 4 2 0 –2 Aug Aug Aug 2002 2012 2022 Extract A Fiscal policy changes in the UK, Autumn 2022 After many changes in policy, people earning above £150 000 will now no longer benefit from the tax cut in the September 2022 mini‑budget, which proposed the removal of the 45% tax band. The proposed change in the main 20% standard rate of income tax moving to 19% has been postponed. 5 In April 2022, a 1.25% rise in national insurance contributions was implemented, labelled as a health and social care levy. It was cancelled in Autumn 2022. Britain’s poorest households would have lost £7.56 a year from the national insurance rise. The richest 10% of households, earning an average of £108 000, would have lost £1 800. Another measure in the Truss Government’s £30 billion tax cut proposals that would have 10 benefitted the rich, was the removal of the 2023 planned rise in corporation tax from 19% to 25%. The former chancellor wanted to cut the tax to 15% but this was the wrong time to do this. The former chancellor also removed the 2014 cap on bankers’ bonuses, clearly an unfair decision at the time when public sector workers were told to accept pay caps to keep inflation under control. 15 The reflationary fiscal policy triggered warnings that the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England would raise interest rates further – having already raised them from 0.1% in 2021 to 2.25% in September 2022. This meant an end to the fiscal rules set by the government in the recent past: debt to be falling as a share of national income by 2024 and no borrowing for day‑to‑day spending. 20 (Source: adapted from ‘Tax cuts benefit high income earners the most’ R Merrick The Independent: 19 September 2022 and FT Source: adapted from Sebastian Payne and Chris Giles in London 29 August 2022) Extract B Inequality to rise in the UK The rising cost of living is expected to affect low‑income families the most. Inflation in Autumn 2022 is expected to hit 14% for families in the poorest tenth of the income distribution, compared with 8% for families in the richest tenth, driven in large part by rising energy costs and food prices. Around half of the food consumed in the UK is 5 imported, and the 20% fall in the value of the pound in 2022 has affected lower income groups more because food is a higher proportion of their spending. The government’s decision to freeze benefits, rather than allowing them to rise in line with current inflation, means that the support provided is a real terms cut for families currently receiving high levels of benefits. A two‑year freeze on energy price caps will now only last until April 10 2023, which would have kept the average energy bill at £2 500 rather than £3 500. (Source: adapted from IFS Report: Living standards, poverty and inequality in the UK: July 2022 and https://www.ft.com/content/6de5b52e- 64c8-4997-8939-e1c59172daa7?shareType=nongift)
(d) Evaluate microeconomic and macroeconomic policies that could be used to reduce inequality in the UK. (25)
June 2023 · Paper 3 · Q1(e) 25 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=8, AO4=9 25-mark essay Either/or public finances and taxation
Data and extracts for question 1The UK economy Figure 1: UK gas prices in pence per therm, August 2002 to August 2022 600 500 400 Pence per 300 therm 200 100 0 Aug Aug Aug 2002 2012 2022 Figure 2: UK inflation, CPI, August 2002 to August 2022 10 9.9 8 6 (%) 4 2 0 –2 Aug Aug Aug 2002 2012 2022 Extract A Fiscal policy changes in the UK, Autumn 2022 After many changes in policy, people earning above £150 000 will now no longer benefit from the tax cut in the September 2022 mini‑budget, which proposed the removal of the 45% tax band. The proposed change in the main 20% standard rate of income tax moving to 19% has been postponed. 5 In April 2022, a 1.25% rise in national insurance contributions was implemented, labelled as a health and social care levy. It was cancelled in Autumn 2022. Britain’s poorest households would have lost £7.56 a year from the national insurance rise. The richest 10% of households, earning an average of £108 000, would have lost £1 800. Another measure in the Truss Government’s £30 billion tax cut proposals that would have 10 benefitted the rich, was the removal of the 2023 planned rise in corporation tax from 19% to 25%. The former chancellor wanted to cut the tax to 15% but this was the wrong time to do this. The former chancellor also removed the 2014 cap on bankers’ bonuses, clearly an unfair decision at the time when public sector workers were told to accept pay caps to keep inflation under control. 15 The reflationary fiscal policy triggered warnings that the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England would raise interest rates further – having already raised them from 0.1% in 2021 to 2.25% in September 2022. This meant an end to the fiscal rules set by the government in the recent past: debt to be falling as a share of national income by 2024 and no borrowing for day‑to‑day spending. 20 (Source: adapted from ‘Tax cuts benefit high income earners the most’ R Merrick The Independent: 19 September 2022 and FT Source: adapted from Sebastian Payne and Chris Giles in London 29 August 2022) Extract B Inequality to rise in the UK The rising cost of living is expected to affect low‑income families the most. Inflation in Autumn 2022 is expected to hit 14% for families in the poorest tenth of the income distribution, compared with 8% for families in the richest tenth, driven in large part by rising energy costs and food prices. Around half of the food consumed in the UK is 5 imported, and the 20% fall in the value of the pound in 2022 has affected lower income groups more because food is a higher proportion of their spending. The government’s decision to freeze benefits, rather than allowing them to rise in line with current inflation, means that the support provided is a real terms cut for families currently receiving high levels of benefits. A two‑year freeze on energy price caps will now only last until April 10 2023, which would have kept the average energy bill at £2 500 rather than £3 500. (Source: adapted from IFS Report: Living standards, poverty and inequality in the UK: July 2022 and https://www.ft.com/content/6de5b52e- 64c8-4997-8939-e1c59172daa7?shareType=nongift)
(e) Evaluate the likely microeconomic and macroeconomic effects of tax cuts in the UK. (25)
June 2023 · Paper 3 · Q2(d) 25 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=8, AO4=9 25-mark essay Either/or Hard aggregate demandlabour market
Data and extracts for question 2Changes in the nature of UK towns and cities Figure 3: Growing and declining high street firms – net change in store numbers, 2013–2022 Barbers Beauty salons Cafés and tearooms Nail salons Restaurants Fashion shops Estate agents Post Office services Clothes – women Banks and other financial institutions –4 000 –3 000 –2 000 –1 000 0 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 5 000 Net increase/decrease in store numbers (Source: adapted from https://www2.deloitte.com/uk/en/pages/consumer- business/articles/what-next-for-the-high-street.html) Figure 4: House price changes in the UK (%), 2005 to 2022 15 10 5 0 (%) –5 –10 –15 –20 2005 2010 2015 2020 2022 (Source: adapted from https://www.theguardian.com/money/2022/sep/28/ uk-house-prices-may-fall-20-amid-mortgage-carnage-warn-experts) Extract C What next for the high street? A high street is typically found in all UK towns and cities. Shops normally encountered in a typical UK high street can include successful small firms such as independent food retailers, cafés, nail and beauty salons, restaurants and charity shops. They differ from out‑of‑town shopping centres by being more diverse, family‑run and offering local or 5 personalised services. Customers are often very loyal. However, the high street may often have limited access by car or expensive parking facilities. The rise of online retailers such as Amazon and eBay have placed huge pressures on UK high streets, with many well‑known shops – and even successful retail chains – forced to close due to lost business. Many high street firms cannot compete on price with online 10 retailers who – because they frequently have very low fixed costs – can significantly undercut the high street shops on price. Even before online shopping, competition was eroding high street activity, with out‑of‑town retail parks that were not necessarily cheaper but provide a larger range of shops and offer plentiful parking. They offer a shopping experience that other retailing 15 cannot match – pleasant, safe pedestrian shopping, a clean environment, fun activities for children and spend‑the‑day‑there potential. While the list of retail and leisure failures might suggest that the high street does not have a future, some analysts argue the opposite. Many believe that the high street is ideally placed to reinvent itself in response to the structural shift in working and 20 shopping patterns that has resulted from the global health crisis 2020–22. The perceived weaknesses of the high street model – its fragmented ownership, lack of centralised coordination and high vacancy rates – become strengths as they lower the barriers to entry for new concepts and operators. They also enable risk taking and innovation that will ultimately lead to a more flourishing and diverse environment on our local high 25 streets. It should be possible for small firms to flourish even when staff shortages are pushing up wages in the high street, and house price falls damage consumer confidence and spending on perceived luxuries. (Source: adapted from https://www.designingbuildings.co.uk/ and https://www2.deloitte. com/uk/en/pages/consumer-business/articles/what-next-for-the-high-street.html) Extract D UK house prices may fall up to 20% Turmoil on the UK financial markets has prompted analysts to predict that house prices could fall dramatically, and many lenders in the mortgage sector are withdrawing deals. People coming to the end of their fixed‑rate mortgages are seeing rises from 2% to over 5.5%, with increases in the cost of borrowing of over £5 200 a year by 2024 for the 5 average mortgage in the UK. Many people think UK house prices will never fall, but analysts say the fall could be between 10% and 20%. One mortgage lender said that a lack of housing supply will not keep house prices up when mortgage interest rates are somewhere between 5% and 7%. He claimed that ‘the decade‑long property bubble is about to burst […] It’s a buyer’s market now’. The 10 greatest impact will be seen in the southeast of England. (Source: adapted from https://www.theguardian.com/money/2022/sep/28/ uk-house-prices-may-fall-20-amid-mortgage-carnage-warn-experts) Extract E UK job vacancies hit record 1.1 million as labour shortages increase The ratio of jobless people to vacancies is 1.45 to 1, lower than at any point in the last 40 years. Social care for example has 300 000 current unfilled posts. ‘Today’s figures show that labour shortages are now affecting the whole economy,’ said one analyst. ‘There are almost a million people fewer in the labour market, largely due to 5 younger people staying in education and older people dropping out of the workforce.’ The inactivity rate is 21.1%, and many people are not returning to work after the global health crisis. ‘People seeking work do not have the skills or availability that employers need,’ said Kitty Ussher, chief economist at the Institute of Directors. Firms offering higher wages does not solve the issue. 10 (Source: adapted from https://www.ft.com/content/463f4fbd- 3a50-45b5-891c-5cb5ba623df8)
(d) Evaluate the microeconomic and macroeconomic effects of falling house prices. (25)
June 2023 · Paper 3 · Q2(e) 25 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=8, AO4=9 25-mark essay Either/or Hard labour marketinflation
Data and extracts for question 2Changes in the nature of UK towns and cities Figure 3: Growing and declining high street firms – net change in store numbers, 2013–2022 Barbers Beauty salons Cafés and tearooms Nail salons Restaurants Fashion shops Estate agents Post Office services Clothes – women Banks and other financial institutions –4 000 –3 000 –2 000 –1 000 0 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 5 000 Net increase/decrease in store numbers (Source: adapted from https://www2.deloitte.com/uk/en/pages/consumer- business/articles/what-next-for-the-high-street.html) Figure 4: House price changes in the UK (%), 2005 to 2022 15 10 5 0 (%) –5 –10 –15 –20 2005 2010 2015 2020 2022 (Source: adapted from https://www.theguardian.com/money/2022/sep/28/ uk-house-prices-may-fall-20-amid-mortgage-carnage-warn-experts) Extract C What next for the high street? A high street is typically found in all UK towns and cities. Shops normally encountered in a typical UK high street can include successful small firms such as independent food retailers, cafés, nail and beauty salons, restaurants and charity shops. They differ from out‑of‑town shopping centres by being more diverse, family‑run and offering local or 5 personalised services. Customers are often very loyal. However, the high street may often have limited access by car or expensive parking facilities. The rise of online retailers such as Amazon and eBay have placed huge pressures on UK high streets, with many well‑known shops – and even successful retail chains – forced to close due to lost business. Many high street firms cannot compete on price with online 10 retailers who – because they frequently have very low fixed costs – can significantly undercut the high street shops on price. Even before online shopping, competition was eroding high street activity, with out‑of‑town retail parks that were not necessarily cheaper but provide a larger range of shops and offer plentiful parking. They offer a shopping experience that other retailing 15 cannot match – pleasant, safe pedestrian shopping, a clean environment, fun activities for children and spend‑the‑day‑there potential. While the list of retail and leisure failures might suggest that the high street does not have a future, some analysts argue the opposite. Many believe that the high street is ideally placed to reinvent itself in response to the structural shift in working and 20 shopping patterns that has resulted from the global health crisis 2020–22. The perceived weaknesses of the high street model – its fragmented ownership, lack of centralised coordination and high vacancy rates – become strengths as they lower the barriers to entry for new concepts and operators. They also enable risk taking and innovation that will ultimately lead to a more flourishing and diverse environment on our local high 25 streets. It should be possible for small firms to flourish even when staff shortages are pushing up wages in the high street, and house price falls damage consumer confidence and spending on perceived luxuries. (Source: adapted from https://www.designingbuildings.co.uk/ and https://www2.deloitte. com/uk/en/pages/consumer-business/articles/what-next-for-the-high-street.html) Extract D UK house prices may fall up to 20% Turmoil on the UK financial markets has prompted analysts to predict that house prices could fall dramatically, and many lenders in the mortgage sector are withdrawing deals. People coming to the end of their fixed‑rate mortgages are seeing rises from 2% to over 5.5%, with increases in the cost of borrowing of over £5 200 a year by 2024 for the 5 average mortgage in the UK. Many people think UK house prices will never fall, but analysts say the fall could be between 10% and 20%. One mortgage lender said that a lack of housing supply will not keep house prices up when mortgage interest rates are somewhere between 5% and 7%. He claimed that ‘the decade‑long property bubble is about to burst […] It’s a buyer’s market now’. The 10 greatest impact will be seen in the southeast of England. (Source: adapted from https://www.theguardian.com/money/2022/sep/28/ uk-house-prices-may-fall-20-amid-mortgage-carnage-warn-experts) Extract E UK job vacancies hit record 1.1 million as labour shortages increase The ratio of jobless people to vacancies is 1.45 to 1, lower than at any point in the last 40 years. Social care for example has 300 000 current unfilled posts. ‘Today’s figures show that labour shortages are now affecting the whole economy,’ said one analyst. ‘There are almost a million people fewer in the labour market, largely due to 5 younger people staying in education and older people dropping out of the workforce.’ The inactivity rate is 21.1%, and many people are not returning to work after the global health crisis. ‘People seeking work do not have the skills or availability that employers need,’ said Kitty Ussher, chief economist at the Institute of Directors. Firms offering higher wages does not solve the issue. 10 (Source: adapted from https://www.ft.com/content/463f4fbd- 3a50-45b5-891c-5cb5ba623df8)
(e) Evaluate the microeconomic and macroeconomic effects of labour shortages in the UK, or a developed economy of your choice. (25)
June 2022 · AS Paper 1 · Q6(f) 20 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=6, AO4=6 20-mark essay Either/or Hard externalities
Data and extracts for question 6The market for fish Extract A Total allowable catches of North Sea cod halved in response to falling stocks In 2020, new lower limits on the quantity of cod that can be caught by the UK fishing fleet came into force. These limits on the fish catch, called total allowable catches (TACs), were agreed at the annual EU fisheries negotiations. It was the last December EU meeting attended by the UK before it left the EU. It was 5 agreed that cod catch limits will be cut by 50% in the North Sea, while reduced limits were agreed for cod in the Celtic Sea, Irish Sea and west of Scotland. However, there were increases for other types of fish, with TACs for haddock in the North Sea rising by 23% and for sole rising by 19%. UK Fisheries Minister George Eustice said: “This year there has been mounting scientific 10 evidence suggesting that cod is being overfished in many parts of the northeast Atlantic and we have responded to conserve stocks”. These new regulations applied to the UK while it remained part of the Common Fisheries Policy. In the future it will become an independent coastal state and negotiate on fisheries with the EU and other coastal states such as Norway. 15 (Source adapted from: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/north-sea-cod- stocks-quota-climate-change-brexit-a9252196.html) Figure 1 Atlantic over-fishing: share of total allowable catch (TAC) in excess of scientific advice (2019) Country Excess TAC (%) Excess TAC (tonnes) Sweden 52.4 17 369 106 925 United Kingdom 24.3 34 052 Ireland 21.7 49 914 Denmark 19.7 20 620 Germany 18.0 The Netherlands 13.5 31 910 3 009 Belgium 10.4 France 9.4 27 230 Spain 6.6 16 689 Portugal 3.8 3 662 (Source adapted from: Statista 2018) Extract B The tragedy of the commons The ‘tragedy of the commons’ may occur when there are common access resources (CARs). These are natural resources over which no private ownership has been established. Therefore, there are difficulties in excluding people from using or exploiting them. CARs include fisheries and common grazing lands. Oceans are so vast that it is 5 impractical for one fishing company to establish ownership and control. This means that others cannot be prevented from exploiting the ocean. Economists have suggested that with the lack of ownership of these resources, private producers will act in their own self-interest and exploit CARs to maximise profit. This exploitation is unsustainable. In other words, CARs provide an opportunity for individuals to create profit, while 10 creating negative externalities which impact on everybody else. This process is referred to as the ‘tragedy of the commons’. The ‘tragedy of the commons’ is at the core of a range of problems that are relevant and threatening to natural resources, environments and human health. In the case of overfishing, fishing companies are not made accountable for the state of the ocean. 15 They continue to fish as much as possible to maximise profit. Today, 90% of fish stocks are depleted. The reason for such a wide range of problems is because there is an environmental cost for everything. The ‘tragedy of the commons’ is the outcome of the fact that every resource is limited on this planet, coupled with the rising level of demand for these 20 resources. These issues are large-scale and require laws, regulation and international cooperation. (Source adapted from: http://felixonline.co.uk/articles/2019-12-09-tragedy-commons- drama-planet-not-enjoying/)
(f) Some economists suggest that the market price of cod does not result in the socially optimum level of output. Evaluate the likely external costs from the over-fishing of cod. Use an appropriate diagram in your answer. (20)
June 2022 · AS Paper 1 · Q6(g) 20 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=6, AO4=6 20-mark essay Either/or government intervention in markets
Data and extracts for question 6The market for fish Extract A Total allowable catches of North Sea cod halved in response to falling stocks In 2020, new lower limits on the quantity of cod that can be caught by the UK fishing fleet came into force. These limits on the fish catch, called total allowable catches (TACs), were agreed at the annual EU fisheries negotiations. It was the last December EU meeting attended by the UK before it left the EU. It was 5 agreed that cod catch limits will be cut by 50% in the North Sea, while reduced limits were agreed for cod in the Celtic Sea, Irish Sea and west of Scotland. However, there were increases for other types of fish, with TACs for haddock in the North Sea rising by 23% and for sole rising by 19%. UK Fisheries Minister George Eustice said: “This year there has been mounting scientific 10 evidence suggesting that cod is being overfished in many parts of the northeast Atlantic and we have responded to conserve stocks”. These new regulations applied to the UK while it remained part of the Common Fisheries Policy. In the future it will become an independent coastal state and negotiate on fisheries with the EU and other coastal states such as Norway. 15 (Source adapted from: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/north-sea-cod- stocks-quota-climate-change-brexit-a9252196.html) Figure 1 Atlantic over-fishing: share of total allowable catch (TAC) in excess of scientific advice (2019) Country Excess TAC (%) Excess TAC (tonnes) Sweden 52.4 17 369 106 925 United Kingdom 24.3 34 052 Ireland 21.7 49 914 Denmark 19.7 20 620 Germany 18.0 The Netherlands 13.5 31 910 3 009 Belgium 10.4 France 9.4 27 230 Spain 6.6 16 689 Portugal 3.8 3 662 (Source adapted from: Statista 2018) Extract B The tragedy of the commons The ‘tragedy of the commons’ may occur when there are common access resources (CARs). These are natural resources over which no private ownership has been established. Therefore, there are difficulties in excluding people from using or exploiting them. CARs include fisheries and common grazing lands. Oceans are so vast that it is 5 impractical for one fishing company to establish ownership and control. This means that others cannot be prevented from exploiting the ocean. Economists have suggested that with the lack of ownership of these resources, private producers will act in their own self-interest and exploit CARs to maximise profit. This exploitation is unsustainable. In other words, CARs provide an opportunity for individuals to create profit, while 10 creating negative externalities which impact on everybody else. This process is referred to as the ‘tragedy of the commons’. The ‘tragedy of the commons’ is at the core of a range of problems that are relevant and threatening to natural resources, environments and human health. In the case of overfishing, fishing companies are not made accountable for the state of the ocean. 15 They continue to fish as much as possible to maximise profit. Today, 90% of fish stocks are depleted. The reason for such a wide range of problems is because there is an environmental cost for everything. The ‘tragedy of the commons’ is the outcome of the fact that every resource is limited on this planet, coupled with the rising level of demand for these 20 resources. These issues are large-scale and require laws, regulation and international cooperation. (Source adapted from: http://felixonline.co.uk/articles/2019-12-09-tragedy-commons- drama-planet-not-enjoying/)
(g) Other than using a TAC, evaluate the policy options which could be used to reduce market failure resulting from over-fishing. Use at least one appropriate diagram in your answer. (20)
June 2022 · AS Paper 2 · Q6(f) 20 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=6, AO4=6 20-mark essay Either/or fiscal and monetary policy
Data and extracts for question 6UK investment and productivity Figure 1: UK investment, annual percentage change, 2014 to 2019 10 % 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 (Source adapted from: https://www.ft.com/content/5e12351e-baaf-11e9-96bd-8e884d3ea203) Figure 2: UK labour productivity, annual percentage change, 2014 to 2019 2 % 1 0 -1 -2 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 (Source adapted from: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/oct/08/uk-productivity- brexit-boris-johnson-labour) Extract A Another recession? For the first time in nearly seven years, the UK economy contracted by 0.2% in the second quarter of 2019. This was as a result of a significantly weaker than expected performance in almost every part of the UK economy. Business investment has been weak across the world, but it is particularly low in the UK. 5 Firms are reluctant to commit to capital spending while there is economic uncertainty. Growth in investment, in areas such as transport and machinery, has slowed. Global trade tensions are also affecting investment decisions. Labour productivity decreased by 0.5% in the second quarter of 2019, the worst performance since mid-2014. Declining productivity is a concern especially as it 10 comes at a time when the unemployment rate has been one of the lowest. The rate of unemployment decreased from 6% in July 2014 to 3.8% in July 2019. The UK’s economic growth has been held back by low investment and productivity since the Global Financial Crisis of 2008. Moreover, the uncertainty over the UK’s future trade relationship with the EU has discouraged companies from investing in productivity- 15 boosting technology. This has decreased the prospects for increases in workers’ pay. Without business investment and improvements in productivity, short-term growth in real GDP is likely to slow further and reduce living standards. However, the UK Government expects the UK economy to perform better than Germany and Italy. These export-focused countries are highly exposed to the slowdown in world 20 trade and the fall in average global incomes. The UK economy is seeing continued strength in consumer spending. Consumption will support growth, provided there is no sudden shock to the UK labour market. Household incomes are strong, primarily due to high employment. Government expenditure has also been rising since the end of 2018. The UK Government has promised more money 25 for schools and infrastructure improvements. Despite this, some economists believe that the UK economy is likely to experience another recession. They claim that low income households cannot cope with a new downturn. The overall picture for the UK economy does not look promising because most businesses are reluctant to invest, productivity is low and economic growth relies on 30 continued consumption. (Source adapted from: ‘On the brink: Britain’s economy braced for Brexit shock’, FT, https:// www.ft.com/ content/40c604d2-c01c-11e9-89e2-41e555e96722; ‘Recession threat hangs over UK economy ahead of Brexit, FT, https://www.ft.com/content/5e12351e-baaf- 11e9-96bd-8e884d3ea203; ‘UK productivity falls at fastest pace in five years as Brexit dents investment, The Guardian, https://www.theguardian.com/ business/2019/oct/08/ uk-productivity-brexit-boris-johnson-labour)
(f) Evaluate the fiscal policies the UK Government could use if it believes that ‘the UK economy is likely to experience another recession’ (Extract A, lines 27–28). (20)
June 2022 · AS Paper 2 · Q6(g) 20 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=6, AO4=6 20-mark essay Either/or Hard supply side policies
Data and extracts for question 6UK investment and productivity Figure 1: UK investment, annual percentage change, 2014 to 2019 10 % 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 (Source adapted from: https://www.ft.com/content/5e12351e-baaf-11e9-96bd-8e884d3ea203) Figure 2: UK labour productivity, annual percentage change, 2014 to 2019 2 % 1 0 -1 -2 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 (Source adapted from: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/oct/08/uk-productivity- brexit-boris-johnson-labour) Extract A Another recession? For the first time in nearly seven years, the UK economy contracted by 0.2% in the second quarter of 2019. This was as a result of a significantly weaker than expected performance in almost every part of the UK economy. Business investment has been weak across the world, but it is particularly low in the UK. 5 Firms are reluctant to commit to capital spending while there is economic uncertainty. Growth in investment, in areas such as transport and machinery, has slowed. Global trade tensions are also affecting investment decisions. Labour productivity decreased by 0.5% in the second quarter of 2019, the worst performance since mid-2014. Declining productivity is a concern especially as it 10 comes at a time when the unemployment rate has been one of the lowest. The rate of unemployment decreased from 6% in July 2014 to 3.8% in July 2019. The UK’s economic growth has been held back by low investment and productivity since the Global Financial Crisis of 2008. Moreover, the uncertainty over the UK’s future trade relationship with the EU has discouraged companies from investing in productivity- 15 boosting technology. This has decreased the prospects for increases in workers’ pay. Without business investment and improvements in productivity, short-term growth in real GDP is likely to slow further and reduce living standards. However, the UK Government expects the UK economy to perform better than Germany and Italy. These export-focused countries are highly exposed to the slowdown in world 20 trade and the fall in average global incomes. The UK economy is seeing continued strength in consumer spending. Consumption will support growth, provided there is no sudden shock to the UK labour market. Household incomes are strong, primarily due to high employment. Government expenditure has also been rising since the end of 2018. The UK Government has promised more money 25 for schools and infrastructure improvements. Despite this, some economists believe that the UK economy is likely to experience another recession. They claim that low income households cannot cope with a new downturn. The overall picture for the UK economy does not look promising because most businesses are reluctant to invest, productivity is low and economic growth relies on 30 continued consumption. (Source adapted from: ‘On the brink: Britain’s economy braced for Brexit shock’, FT, https:// www.ft.com/ content/40c604d2-c01c-11e9-89e2-41e555e96722; ‘Recession threat hangs over UK economy ahead of Brexit, FT, https://www.ft.com/content/5e12351e-baaf- 11e9-96bd-8e884d3ea203; ‘UK productivity falls at fastest pace in five years as Brexit dents investment, The Guardian, https://www.theguardian.com/ business/2019/oct/08/ uk-productivity-brexit-boris-johnson-labour)
(g) Evaluate the supply-side policies the UK Government could use to increase the UK’s productivity. (20)
June 2022 · Paper 1 · Q7 25 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=8, AO4=9 25-mark essay Either/or monopolymarket structures and efficiency
7 Tesla held an 82% market share of the electric vehicle market in the United States during the first half of 2020. (Source: adapted from https://electrek.co/2020/08/21/ tesla-holds-us-ev-market-losing-federal-tax-credit/) Evaluate whether a monopoly is likely to operate efficiently. Refer to at least one monopoly of your choice.
June 2022 · Paper 1 · Q8 25 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=8, AO4=9 25-mark essay Either/or labour market
8 Some occupations in the UK are facing large labour shortages. Hard-to-fill vacancies include qualified chefs, software engineers, construction workers and qualified nurses. (Source: adapted from https://www.ft.com/content/ 36baacce-ddd0-11e8-9f04-38d397e6661c) Evaluate the factors that might influence the supply of labour in an occupation of your choice.
June 2022 · Paper 2 · Q7 25 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=8, AO4=9 25-mark essay Either/or trading blocs and protectionism
7 Both China and the United States have been gradually increasing the tariffs imposed on each other’s exports as their trade dispute continues. The IMF estimated that the trade dispute between China and the United States would reduce global GDP growth by 0.8 percentage points by the end of 2020. (Source: adapted from https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/oct/15/imf-recession- world-growth-forecast-central-banks) Evaluate the likely impact of an increase in protectionism on the global economy.
June 2022 · Paper 2 · Q8 25 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=8, AO4=9 25-mark essay Either/or globalisation and trade
8 With global economic growth slowing and inequality rising, the case against globalisation is strengthening. But there are also many benefits to globalisation. Global trade and international trade agreements allow countries to focus on their strengths and share expertise, as well as reducing risk through diversification. (Source: adapted from https://www.ft.com/content/ 7b365844-9b75-11ea-adb1-529f96d8a00b) Evaluate the likely impact of globalisation on the global economy.
June 2022 · Paper 3 · Q1(d) 25 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=8, AO4=9 25-mark essay Either/or exchange ratesrevenues costs and profits
Data and extracts for question 1The food delivery industry Figure 1: Market share for third‑party food delivery services in the UK, 2019 1.2% 10.2% 21.3% 67.3% Just Eat Deliveroo Uber Eats Others (Source: adapted from https://onefourzerogroup.com/the‑takeaway‑takeover/) Extract A National Minimum Wage rises are more significant for 23 to 25-year-olds In 2021, the National Minimum Wage main rate, also known as the National Living Wage, rose by 2.2% to £8.91, following a 6.2% rise in 2020. By reducing the age at which people are eligible for the National Living Wage to 23 in 2021, it is estimated that an additional 7.5% of 23 to 25-year-olds could get a 71p an hour pay rise. This amounts to an 8.7% 5 increase, which may cause further financial worries for employers. (Source: adapted from https://www.ndna.org.uk/NDNA/News/Latest_news/2020/ Minimum_wages_to_rise_by_inflation_in_April.aspx) Extract B What is the true cost of the food delivery service? The food delivery industry has boomed in recent years. Just Eat, Uber Eats and Deliveroo all offer very similar services – third‑party food delivery firms that take up to 30% of the price of restaurant meals and deliver them to customers within a certain radius. The average spend per customer is around £15 with a £5 delivery fee, about five times 5 more expensive than cooking at home and the same price as eating in the restaurant. Cash rich, time poor professionals increasingly turn to food delivery. Food delivery comes with many layers of packaging. In the UK, there are 200 million meals annually with around 1.4 billion individual pieces of plastic for heat retention and protection when travelling, but does it really have to be plastic? People tend to 10 order more food, often high in fat, sugar and salt, and don’t even have to get up from their sofa. But there are concerns that the delivery firms are exploiting employees who have no alternative. There is an issue of low pay and informal contracts. Delivery drivers are classed as ‘independent contractors’, and therefore not subject to some employment 15 rights including a guaranteed minimum wage, sick pay, pensions or holiday pay. Drivers are paid either a flat hourly rate, or a fee per delivery. Factors such as delivery distance, speed, how busy it is and whether there are multiple drop‑offs are all factored into how much a driver is paid. Deliveroo says its wages amount to around £10 per hour, but drivers say that during 2020 their pay has been as low as £1 per hour. Drivers are not 20 paid extra for petrol or to maintain their vehicles. Many drivers are recent immigrants or students, who do not have property or savings to fall back on. The government could address this with widening minimum pay legislation to contracted workers, by setting codes of practice, or by setting recommended wage targets. Furthermore, there are health and safety issues for workers. Vehicle safety checks, 25 length of shifts and safety equipment are of concern. However, there are still people who take benefit from working flexibility. (Source: adapted from https://www.theguardian.com/australia‑news/2020/oct/25/home- food-delivery‑what‑is‑the‑most‑ethical‑way‑to‑order‑in and https://digitalcommons.molloy. edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1043&context=bus_fac) Extract C Integration in the third‑party food delivery industry The Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) is watching carefully to prevent any one firm having complete control of the food delivery industry. Just Eat, the market leader, agreed to merge with successful Dutch firm Takeaway.com in 2020, creating a new European leader by revenues. It also bought Grubhub in the US, with 20 million active 5 users. Just Eat uses an aggressive pricing strategy, undercutting delivery fees below the average cost of other firms in the market, that will force them to merge in order to gain some economies of scale. Amazon, having failed with its own delivery company Amazon Restaurants in 2018, has bought 16% of Deliveroo. The CMA took over a year to agree to the partial integration, 10 on the argument that Deliveroo would close down without external investment. Amazon has unique expertise in marketing, increasing customer share and, most importantly, efficiency in delivering things. Food delivery is often uneconomical because a single household puts in a single order from a single restaurant at any one time. Tech companies such as Amazon can improve the business: once a meal has been ordered, an 15 app often moves that restaurant to the top of the rankings for that neighbourhood, in the hope of getting a second and third delivery. So why do restaurants turn to these delivery firms? The sheer volume of customers these delivery firms can hold makes it a difficult deal to turn down. But resentment from small business restaurant owners, angry at being wholly dependent on tech companies, is 20 growing. Most restaurants would prefer that customers come in and pick up their orders themselves because they do not have to pay the 30% commission. Restaurant profit margins are small, and the effects of a 20% fall in the external value of the pound since 2016 on food costs are significant, given that over half of their food and drink is sourced outside the UK. 25 (Source: adapted from https://www.ft.com/content/c20f6848‑3c4b‑11ea‑a01a-bae547046735 https://www.ft.com/content/edf8a144‑a101‑4ef8‑80e3‑7d2f1565d35c and https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article‑8138703/Uber‑set‑sell- takeaway-division‑rival‑Deliveroo‑two‑years.html and https://www.ft.com/content/c20f6848-3c4b‑11ea‑a01a‑bae547046735 and https://www.ft.com/content/bed7c4d8-28c1-11ea-9a4f-963f0ec7e134 and https://www.economist.com/1843/2021/01/26/gulp‑the‑secret‑economics-of-food‑delivery)
(d) Evaluate the microeconomic and macroeconomic effects of a depreciation of the pound. Refer to restaurants or other food delivery services in your answer. (25)
June 2022 · Paper 3 · Q1(e) 25 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=8, AO4=9 25-mark essay Either/or labour marketnational income and the multiplier
Data and extracts for question 1The food delivery industry Figure 1: Market share for third‑party food delivery services in the UK, 2019 1.2% 10.2% 21.3% 67.3% Just Eat Deliveroo Uber Eats Others (Source: adapted from https://onefourzerogroup.com/the‑takeaway‑takeover/) Extract A National Minimum Wage rises are more significant for 23 to 25-year-olds In 2021, the National Minimum Wage main rate, also known as the National Living Wage, rose by 2.2% to £8.91, following a 6.2% rise in 2020. By reducing the age at which people are eligible for the National Living Wage to 23 in 2021, it is estimated that an additional 7.5% of 23 to 25-year-olds could get a 71p an hour pay rise. This amounts to an 8.7% 5 increase, which may cause further financial worries for employers. (Source: adapted from https://www.ndna.org.uk/NDNA/News/Latest_news/2020/ Minimum_wages_to_rise_by_inflation_in_April.aspx) Extract B What is the true cost of the food delivery service? The food delivery industry has boomed in recent years. Just Eat, Uber Eats and Deliveroo all offer very similar services – third‑party food delivery firms that take up to 30% of the price of restaurant meals and deliver them to customers within a certain radius. The average spend per customer is around £15 with a £5 delivery fee, about five times 5 more expensive than cooking at home and the same price as eating in the restaurant. Cash rich, time poor professionals increasingly turn to food delivery. Food delivery comes with many layers of packaging. In the UK, there are 200 million meals annually with around 1.4 billion individual pieces of plastic for heat retention and protection when travelling, but does it really have to be plastic? People tend to 10 order more food, often high in fat, sugar and salt, and don’t even have to get up from their sofa. But there are concerns that the delivery firms are exploiting employees who have no alternative. There is an issue of low pay and informal contracts. Delivery drivers are classed as ‘independent contractors’, and therefore not subject to some employment 15 rights including a guaranteed minimum wage, sick pay, pensions or holiday pay. Drivers are paid either a flat hourly rate, or a fee per delivery. Factors such as delivery distance, speed, how busy it is and whether there are multiple drop‑offs are all factored into how much a driver is paid. Deliveroo says its wages amount to around £10 per hour, but drivers say that during 2020 their pay has been as low as £1 per hour. Drivers are not 20 paid extra for petrol or to maintain their vehicles. Many drivers are recent immigrants or students, who do not have property or savings to fall back on. The government could address this with widening minimum pay legislation to contracted workers, by setting codes of practice, or by setting recommended wage targets. Furthermore, there are health and safety issues for workers. Vehicle safety checks, 25 length of shifts and safety equipment are of concern. However, there are still people who take benefit from working flexibility. (Source: adapted from https://www.theguardian.com/australia‑news/2020/oct/25/home- food-delivery‑what‑is‑the‑most‑ethical‑way‑to‑order‑in and https://digitalcommons.molloy. edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1043&context=bus_fac) Extract C Integration in the third‑party food delivery industry The Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) is watching carefully to prevent any one firm having complete control of the food delivery industry. Just Eat, the market leader, agreed to merge with successful Dutch firm Takeaway.com in 2020, creating a new European leader by revenues. It also bought Grubhub in the US, with 20 million active 5 users. Just Eat uses an aggressive pricing strategy, undercutting delivery fees below the average cost of other firms in the market, that will force them to merge in order to gain some economies of scale. Amazon, having failed with its own delivery company Amazon Restaurants in 2018, has bought 16% of Deliveroo. The CMA took over a year to agree to the partial integration, 10 on the argument that Deliveroo would close down without external investment. Amazon has unique expertise in marketing, increasing customer share and, most importantly, efficiency in delivering things. Food delivery is often uneconomical because a single household puts in a single order from a single restaurant at any one time. Tech companies such as Amazon can improve the business: once a meal has been ordered, an 15 app often moves that restaurant to the top of the rankings for that neighbourhood, in the hope of getting a second and third delivery. So why do restaurants turn to these delivery firms? The sheer volume of customers these delivery firms can hold makes it a difficult deal to turn down. But resentment from small business restaurant owners, angry at being wholly dependent on tech companies, is 20 growing. Most restaurants would prefer that customers come in and pick up their orders themselves because they do not have to pay the 30% commission. Restaurant profit margins are small, and the effects of a 20% fall in the external value of the pound since 2016 on food costs are significant, given that over half of their food and drink is sourced outside the UK. 25 (Source: adapted from https://www.ft.com/content/c20f6848‑3c4b‑11ea‑a01a-bae547046735 https://www.ft.com/content/edf8a144‑a101‑4ef8‑80e3‑7d2f1565d35c and https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article‑8138703/Uber‑set‑sell- takeaway-division‑rival‑Deliveroo‑two‑years.html and https://www.ft.com/content/c20f6848-3c4b‑11ea‑a01a‑bae547046735 and https://www.ft.com/content/bed7c4d8-28c1-11ea-9a4f-963f0ec7e134 and https://www.economist.com/1843/2021/01/26/gulp‑the‑secret‑economics-of-food‑delivery)
(e) Evaluate the microeconomic and macroeconomic effects of significant increases in the minimum wage. Refer to restaurants or other food delivery services in your answer. (25)
June 2022 · Paper 3 · Q2(d) 25 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=8, AO4=9 25-mark essay Either/or fiscal and monetary policyrevenues costs and profits
Data and extracts for question 2Sub‑Saharan Africa – growth and development Figure 2: Kenya population, millions, 1960 to 2020 60 53.7 50 42.0 40 millions 32.0 30 23.7 20 16.4 11.3 8.1 10 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 (Source: adapted from Population, total ‑ Kenya | Data (worldbank.org)) Extract D Growth and development in Africa: 'Africa has a massive opportunity as a low‑cost provider of services' The outlook for Africa’s economies is not as simple as the Lewis model of growth and development implies: do more manufacturing or stay poor. Many countries are expanding into areas that economists are starting to call 'industries without smoking 5 chimneys'. Some, such as flower‑exports, may not be classified as manufactured goods in export statistics. But the process of producing flowers looks a lot like factory work and demands many of the same management skills. These industries also deliver many of the benefits of normal manufacturing, including many well‑paid jobs, and greater opportunities. 10 (Source: adapted from https://www.economist.com/special‑report/2020/03/26/many‑of- africas-economies‑are‑doing‑well) Extract E The demography of Kenya – ‘Demography will shape Africa’s future’ Falling birth rates, when accompanied by rising literacy, can help kick‑start growth. In Kenya 39% of the population is below the age of 15, falling from 43% in 2009. The labour force (15–64 years) is 57% and is the fastest growing population group. 6% of the population is over the age of 60. The number of children per family has fallen sharply, 5 from 8.1 children in 1978 to 4.6 children in 2008, and it is projected to possibly reach 2.4 children by 2050. In the 1970s little more than half of children in sub‑Saharan Africa were enrolled in primary school. That share has shot up to almost 100%. The statistic is slightly misleading, since the percentage of children regularly attending schools is nearer 60%. 10 Why does Kenya’s population continue to rise rapidly, while family size declines? There are two reasons. First, due to high fertility in previous decades, there are many more families in Kenya today. So even though families are smaller, the total number of children continues to grow. Second, Kenyans are living longer, with better healthcare – for example, polio was eradicated in 2014. Life expectancy is projected to increase from 15 54 years today to 68 years by 2050. 28% of Kenya is urbanised, and is becoming rapidly more so. By the 2030s it is expected that 36% of Kenyans will live in towns or cities rather than the poorer rural areas. Rich countries are urban countries. No country has ever reached high income levels with low urbanisation. Large urban centres have two distinct economic advantages. First, as more 20 people interact, there is more scope for innovation. Young people need jobs, but they also create jobs. Kenya has an educated workforce and a dynamic service industry, which typically has lower barriers of entry than agriculture or manufacturing, and provides opportunities for young entrepreneurs. Second, larger groups of population living in close proximity allow for economies of scale. 25 In light of these facts, Kenya’s future pattern of population growth can be a force of good. A large urbanising and well‑educated population tends to generate a strong middle class and vibrant private sector. Economic development may be easier to achieve and sustain – though it is not guaranteed. (Source: adapted from https://www.economist.com/special‑report/2020/03/26/ africas‑population‑will‑double‑by‑2050 and https://kenya.unfpa.org/sites/default/files/pub‑pdf/state_of_kenya_population_ report_2020.pdf and https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/opinion/2010/04/28/ demographic‑transition‑growth‑kenya) Extract F Kenya has an absolute advantage in cut flowers In the UK, 80% of cut flowers come via the Netherlands, although a significant proportion come from Kenya. Some Kenyan flowers come straight to the UK on direct flights from Nairobi, where entire terminals at certain airports are dedicated to flights exporting flowers. 5 Kenya flower production has three major advantages over the Netherlands: areas of high altitude with cool nights, which many flowers benefit from, proximity to the equator for maximum hours of sunlight, and cheaper labour. This means an end to seasonal production and the beginning of a 365‑day‑a‑year absolute advantage. The Netherlands has cost advantages in machinery and transport equipment, not flowers. 10 Cut flowers are now Kenya’s second largest export after tea, contributing around 1% of the country’s GDP. They are also one of the country’s largest sources of employment, with over 100 000 people working directly in the flower industry and an estimated two million indirectly. (Source: adapted from: https://www.economist.com/middle‑east‑and‑africa/2021/02/11/ kenyas-floral‑exports‑are-blooming‑once‑more) Extract G Changes in interest rates in sub‑Saharan Africa When Robert Matsiko was a young man his grain‑milling business in eastern Africa was destroyed by fire. Now, after building it back up from the ashes, he is being hurt by high interest rates. To buy a new machine he must borrow from a bank at an annual rate of 22%. 'You fear to do that,' Mr Matsiko says. Many other entrepreneurs feel the same, 5 which stops their businesses from growing, although very small firms can get help from microfinance schemes. Kenya’s central bank rate has fallen from over 20% to 7% in the last decade, but the rates charged to small businesses and individuals are much higher than the central bank interest rate. In sub‑Saharan Africa, the gap between saving and borrowing rates 10 is higher than anywhere else. The average bank lends at 6.8% above the central bank interest rate. Mobile banking, credit‑information sharing and innovation have helped to bring borrowing costs down. But until birth rates fall, interest rates will stay relatively high, because families with many children cannot afford to save. (Source: adapted from https://www.economist.com/finance‑and‑economics/2020/05/21/ why-interest‑rates-are‑so-high‑in-africa)
(d) Evaluate the microeconomic and macroeconomic effects of decreasing interest rates in Kenya, or another developing country of your choice. (25)
June 2022 · Paper 3 · Q2(e) 25 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=8, AO4=9 25-mark essay Either/or emerging and developing economies
Data and extracts for question 2Sub‑Saharan Africa – growth and development Figure 2: Kenya population, millions, 1960 to 2020 60 53.7 50 42.0 40 millions 32.0 30 23.7 20 16.4 11.3 8.1 10 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 (Source: adapted from Population, total ‑ Kenya | Data (worldbank.org)) Extract D Growth and development in Africa: 'Africa has a massive opportunity as a low‑cost provider of services' The outlook for Africa’s economies is not as simple as the Lewis model of growth and development implies: do more manufacturing or stay poor. Many countries are expanding into areas that economists are starting to call 'industries without smoking 5 chimneys'. Some, such as flower‑exports, may not be classified as manufactured goods in export statistics. But the process of producing flowers looks a lot like factory work and demands many of the same management skills. These industries also deliver many of the benefits of normal manufacturing, including many well‑paid jobs, and greater opportunities. 10 (Source: adapted from https://www.economist.com/special‑report/2020/03/26/many‑of- africas-economies‑are‑doing‑well) Extract E The demography of Kenya – ‘Demography will shape Africa’s future’ Falling birth rates, when accompanied by rising literacy, can help kick‑start growth. In Kenya 39% of the population is below the age of 15, falling from 43% in 2009. The labour force (15–64 years) is 57% and is the fastest growing population group. 6% of the population is over the age of 60. The number of children per family has fallen sharply, 5 from 8.1 children in 1978 to 4.6 children in 2008, and it is projected to possibly reach 2.4 children by 2050. In the 1970s little more than half of children in sub‑Saharan Africa were enrolled in primary school. That share has shot up to almost 100%. The statistic is slightly misleading, since the percentage of children regularly attending schools is nearer 60%. 10 Why does Kenya’s population continue to rise rapidly, while family size declines? There are two reasons. First, due to high fertility in previous decades, there are many more families in Kenya today. So even though families are smaller, the total number of children continues to grow. Second, Kenyans are living longer, with better healthcare – for example, polio was eradicated in 2014. Life expectancy is projected to increase from 15 54 years today to 68 years by 2050. 28% of Kenya is urbanised, and is becoming rapidly more so. By the 2030s it is expected that 36% of Kenyans will live in towns or cities rather than the poorer rural areas. Rich countries are urban countries. No country has ever reached high income levels with low urbanisation. Large urban centres have two distinct economic advantages. First, as more 20 people interact, there is more scope for innovation. Young people need jobs, but they also create jobs. Kenya has an educated workforce and a dynamic service industry, which typically has lower barriers of entry than agriculture or manufacturing, and provides opportunities for young entrepreneurs. Second, larger groups of population living in close proximity allow for economies of scale. 25 In light of these facts, Kenya’s future pattern of population growth can be a force of good. A large urbanising and well‑educated population tends to generate a strong middle class and vibrant private sector. Economic development may be easier to achieve and sustain – though it is not guaranteed. (Source: adapted from https://www.economist.com/special‑report/2020/03/26/ africas‑population‑will‑double‑by‑2050 and https://kenya.unfpa.org/sites/default/files/pub‑pdf/state_of_kenya_population_ report_2020.pdf and https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/opinion/2010/04/28/ demographic‑transition‑growth‑kenya) Extract F Kenya has an absolute advantage in cut flowers In the UK, 80% of cut flowers come via the Netherlands, although a significant proportion come from Kenya. Some Kenyan flowers come straight to the UK on direct flights from Nairobi, where entire terminals at certain airports are dedicated to flights exporting flowers. 5 Kenya flower production has three major advantages over the Netherlands: areas of high altitude with cool nights, which many flowers benefit from, proximity to the equator for maximum hours of sunlight, and cheaper labour. This means an end to seasonal production and the beginning of a 365‑day‑a‑year absolute advantage. The Netherlands has cost advantages in machinery and transport equipment, not flowers. 10 Cut flowers are now Kenya’s second largest export after tea, contributing around 1% of the country’s GDP. They are also one of the country’s largest sources of employment, with over 100 000 people working directly in the flower industry and an estimated two million indirectly. (Source: adapted from: https://www.economist.com/middle‑east‑and‑africa/2021/02/11/ kenyas-floral‑exports‑are-blooming‑once‑more) Extract G Changes in interest rates in sub‑Saharan Africa When Robert Matsiko was a young man his grain‑milling business in eastern Africa was destroyed by fire. Now, after building it back up from the ashes, he is being hurt by high interest rates. To buy a new machine he must borrow from a bank at an annual rate of 22%. 'You fear to do that,' Mr Matsiko says. Many other entrepreneurs feel the same, 5 which stops their businesses from growing, although very small firms can get help from microfinance schemes. Kenya’s central bank rate has fallen from over 20% to 7% in the last decade, but the rates charged to small businesses and individuals are much higher than the central bank interest rate. In sub‑Saharan Africa, the gap between saving and borrowing rates 10 is higher than anywhere else. The average bank lends at 6.8% above the central bank interest rate. Mobile banking, credit‑information sharing and innovation have helped to bring borrowing costs down. But until birth rates fall, interest rates will stay relatively high, because families with many children cannot afford to save. (Source: adapted from https://www.economist.com/finance‑and‑economics/2020/05/21/ why-interest‑rates-are‑so-high‑in-africa)
(e) Evaluate the microeconomic and macroeconomic strategies that could be used to promote development in Kenya, or another developing country of your choice. (25)
November 2021 · Paper 1 · Q7 25 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=8, AO4=9 25-mark essay Either/or labour market
7 The national living wage, the minimum wage for 25-year-olds and over, is expected to rise to more than £10.50 an hour in 2024 compared with £8.72 in 2020. The wage does not apply to the UK’s self-employed and ‘gig economy’ workers. Some economists said the increase was ambitious. Business groups warned that employers in sectors such as social care could be hit hard. In large parts of the north of England the living wage has already reached two-thirds of local median earnings, said Professor Shackleton. (Source adapted from: https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/mar/11/budget-2020- national-living-wage-national-insurance) Evaluate the disadvantages of a significant increase in the national living wage on a specific labour market, such as that for social care workers.
November 2021 · Paper 1 · Q8 25 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=8, AO4=9 25-mark essay Either/or oligopolymonopoly
8 In many industries, such as banking, health insurance, internet search engines, pharmaceuticals, social media and telecommunications, there have been increases in market concentration. Evaluate the possible consequences for business decision making of increased market concentration. Refer to industries of your choice in your answer.
November 2021 · Paper 2 · Q7 25 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=8, AO4=9 25-mark essay Either/or fiscal and monetary policymacroeconomic policy in a global context
7 The European Central Bank introduced a new round of quantitative easing (QE) in March 2020, purchasing up to €750 billion of assets. The objective of this QE was to reduce the serious risks to the effectiveness of monetary policy resulting from a significant recession. The European Central Bank’s target for inflation remains at ‘below but close to 2%’. (Source adapted from: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2020/html/ecb. pr200318_1~3949d6f266.en.html) Evaluate the effectiveness of quantitative easing during ‘a significant recession’.
November 2021 · Paper 2 · Q8 25 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=8, AO4=9 25-mark essay Either/or macroeconomic objectives
8 It has been estimated that if climate change led to the world’s temperature rising 2.5 °C compared to the temperature in 2010, then global GDP per capita would be 15% lower by 2100. If temperatures rise by 4 °C compared to the temperature in 2010, then by 2100 global GDP per capita would decline by more than 30%. (Source adapted from: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0071-9) Evaluate the potential trade-offs between environmental protection and other macroeconomic objectives.
November 2021 · Paper 3 · Q1(d) 25 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=8, AO4=9 25-mark essay Either/or monopsony and contestabilityeconomic growth and the trade cycle
Data and extracts for question 1Hand car wash (HCW) firms in the UK Extract A What is the true human cost of your £5 hand car wash (HCW)? The UK’s hand car washes (HCWs) are extremely price competitive, but they have also been linked to modern slavery. Are they ever fair for workers? There is little agreement about how many HCWs there are in the UK. Estimates range from 10 000 to 20 000. This lack of accurate information about the industry makes 5 government regulation very difficult. Automated car washes, with their fierce rotating bristles, used to be the first option for drivers in a hurry. Now there is more choice. While the economy slows and incomes fail to keep up with inflation, demand for HCWs has grown. Many people see paying £5 for a car washed by someone else, rather than cleaning it at home, as a small expense which yields a high utility. But what is the true 10 cost of a £5 car wash – and what should we be paying? The growth of HCWs is partly the result of changes in the structure of industry in the UK. Many petrol stations have closed as drivers fill up at supermarkets. Garages and their forecourts have closed as cars become more reliable and locked into service agreements. The available sites for HCWs have therefore increased significantly and rents have fallen. 15 HCW entrepreneurs have identified available land and have benefitted from changes in the labour market, partly as a result of EU migration. UK drivers are now able to obtain cheap and effective hand car washing. For many migrants, car washes are a first job. “They accept car washing for a short period while they improve their language skills and move into other industries,” says Ian Clark, a professor of work and employment at 20 Nottingham Business School. “But there are also car-wash workers without networks who are in a dead end, working there for long periods.” Many drivers are only interested in getting the cheapest wash. If the price is very low, it probably means that workers are receiving less than the minimum wage and working in poor conditions. Crude calculations illustrate the problem. A £5 HCW employing five 25 workers for 10 hours a day would need to wash 79 cars a day to just cover the wage costs. This assumes the workers are paid the minimum wage. This is one car every seven and a half minutes. Even if the profit can be higher on valet services, the price of which can be as little as £12 for a full inside-and-out clean, it’s hard to see how a car wash price as low as £5 pays a living wage. This ignores all other costs which HCWs incur such as 30 business rates and rent. Evidence from car-wash workers is limited but Clark and others have been able to build a picture of some of the tougher conditions on drenched forecourts. “Like nail bars and small garment manufacturers, car washes are what we call ‘hard-to-reach places,’” Clark explains. As part of the research, Clark and his team spoke to workers from 45 HCWs in 35 the Midlands. Clark and his team met and observed workers who lacked waterproof boots or trousers, or hi-vis jackets and gloves. “They’re spraying around hydrochloric acid solution for alloy wheels, breathing in the vapour and fumes,” Clark says. Some workers were paid a little over half the minimum wage. 40 (Source adapted from: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jul/16/true-human-cost- 5-pound-hand-car-wash-modern-slavery) Extract B Government intervention in the HCW industry There are three main areas of government intervention that might impact on labour intensive firms such as HCWs: First, there is the planning issue which focuses on the impact on the environment, for example, the disposal and recycling of waste water and chemicals. There could be 5 planning regulations to prevent the use of tarmac rather than concrete on forecourts. Tarmac allows waste water and chemicals to seep into the sub soil. It could also be a requirement to have a sludge trap to stop the waste entering waterways. Second, there is the health and safety issue for workers. Prolonged exposure to chemicals and lack of protective clothing puts the health of workers at risk. Performance targets 10 could involve minimum levels of protective clothing and rest breaks for the workers. Third, there is the issue of tax. The informal nature of the business type makes tax evasion easier. Not all UK HCWs violate regulations. There are legitimate, regulated HCW firms as well as examples of good practice by independent outlets. One national supermarket, Tesco, 15 has banned all independent hand car washes from its car parks. It is now in a partnership agreement with national car wash operator Waves. It uses a WashMark certificate of quality and compliance which was introduced by the industry to improve working conditions. Other major supermarkets are considering similar changes. One adviser believes £9 is a reasonable minimum price for a basic wash. Some pressure groups have 20 developed a mobile phone app where evidence of unreasonable conditions can be reported by drivers. Involving drivers in the issue, and making them demand fairer car washes, creates an incentive for good businesses to improve practices and come forward to get a WashMark certificate. 25 (Source adapted from: https://www.parliament.uk/documents/commons-committees/ environmental-audit/Hand-Car-Wash-evidence.pdf research into HCWs by Professor Ian Clark, Nottingham Business School May 2018)
(d) Evaluate the microeconomic and macroeconomic factors which determine the number of firms in an industry. Refer to HCWs or another industry of your choice. (25)
November 2021 · Paper 3 · Q1(e) 25 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=8, AO4=9 25-mark essay Either/or competition policy and regulationlabour marketpoverty and inequality
Data and extracts for question 1Hand car wash (HCW) firms in the UK Extract A What is the true human cost of your £5 hand car wash (HCW)? The UK’s hand car washes (HCWs) are extremely price competitive, but they have also been linked to modern slavery. Are they ever fair for workers? There is little agreement about how many HCWs there are in the UK. Estimates range from 10 000 to 20 000. This lack of accurate information about the industry makes 5 government regulation very difficult. Automated car washes, with their fierce rotating bristles, used to be the first option for drivers in a hurry. Now there is more choice. While the economy slows and incomes fail to keep up with inflation, demand for HCWs has grown. Many people see paying £5 for a car washed by someone else, rather than cleaning it at home, as a small expense which yields a high utility. But what is the true 10 cost of a £5 car wash – and what should we be paying? The growth of HCWs is partly the result of changes in the structure of industry in the UK. Many petrol stations have closed as drivers fill up at supermarkets. Garages and their forecourts have closed as cars become more reliable and locked into service agreements. The available sites for HCWs have therefore increased significantly and rents have fallen. 15 HCW entrepreneurs have identified available land and have benefitted from changes in the labour market, partly as a result of EU migration. UK drivers are now able to obtain cheap and effective hand car washing. For many migrants, car washes are a first job. “They accept car washing for a short period while they improve their language skills and move into other industries,” says Ian Clark, a professor of work and employment at 20 Nottingham Business School. “But there are also car-wash workers without networks who are in a dead end, working there for long periods.” Many drivers are only interested in getting the cheapest wash. If the price is very low, it probably means that workers are receiving less than the minimum wage and working in poor conditions. Crude calculations illustrate the problem. A £5 HCW employing five 25 workers for 10 hours a day would need to wash 79 cars a day to just cover the wage costs. This assumes the workers are paid the minimum wage. This is one car every seven and a half minutes. Even if the profit can be higher on valet services, the price of which can be as little as £12 for a full inside-and-out clean, it’s hard to see how a car wash price as low as £5 pays a living wage. This ignores all other costs which HCWs incur such as 30 business rates and rent. Evidence from car-wash workers is limited but Clark and others have been able to build a picture of some of the tougher conditions on drenched forecourts. “Like nail bars and small garment manufacturers, car washes are what we call ‘hard-to-reach places,’” Clark explains. As part of the research, Clark and his team spoke to workers from 45 HCWs in 35 the Midlands. Clark and his team met and observed workers who lacked waterproof boots or trousers, or hi-vis jackets and gloves. “They’re spraying around hydrochloric acid solution for alloy wheels, breathing in the vapour and fumes,” Clark says. Some workers were paid a little over half the minimum wage. 40 (Source adapted from: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jul/16/true-human-cost- 5-pound-hand-car-wash-modern-slavery) Extract B Government intervention in the HCW industry There are three main areas of government intervention that might impact on labour intensive firms such as HCWs: First, there is the planning issue which focuses on the impact on the environment, for example, the disposal and recycling of waste water and chemicals. There could be 5 planning regulations to prevent the use of tarmac rather than concrete on forecourts. Tarmac allows waste water and chemicals to seep into the sub soil. It could also be a requirement to have a sludge trap to stop the waste entering waterways. Second, there is the health and safety issue for workers. Prolonged exposure to chemicals and lack of protective clothing puts the health of workers at risk. Performance targets 10 could involve minimum levels of protective clothing and rest breaks for the workers. Third, there is the issue of tax. The informal nature of the business type makes tax evasion easier. Not all UK HCWs violate regulations. There are legitimate, regulated HCW firms as well as examples of good practice by independent outlets. One national supermarket, Tesco, 15 has banned all independent hand car washes from its car parks. It is now in a partnership agreement with national car wash operator Waves. It uses a WashMark certificate of quality and compliance which was introduced by the industry to improve working conditions. Other major supermarkets are considering similar changes. One adviser believes £9 is a reasonable minimum price for a basic wash. Some pressure groups have 20 developed a mobile phone app where evidence of unreasonable conditions can be reported by drivers. Involving drivers in the issue, and making them demand fairer car washes, creates an incentive for good businesses to improve practices and come forward to get a WashMark certificate. 25 (Source adapted from: https://www.parliament.uk/documents/commons-committees/ environmental-audit/Hand-Car-Wash-evidence.pdf research into HCWs by Professor Ian Clark, Nottingham Business School May 2018)
(e) Evaluate the microeconomic and macroeconomic effects of increased government intervention in an industry. Refer to HCWs or another industry of your choice. (25)
November 2021 · Paper 3 · Q2(d) 25 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=8, AO4=9 25-mark essay Either/or economic growth and the trade cycleinternational competitiveness
Data and extracts for question 2The German economy Figure 1: German government budget balance, percentage of GDP, 2010 to 2019 1.9 2 1.5 1.2 1.2 0.9 0.6 0 0 –0.1 –1 % of GDP –2 –4 –4.2 –6 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 (Source adapted from: The Economist Nov 14th 2019) Figure 2: German national debt, percentage of GDP, 2010 to 2019 85 80 75 70 % of GDP 65 60 55 0 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 (Source adapted from: The Economist Nov 14th 2019) Figure 3: Annual percentage change in real GDP, Germany and average of developed economies, 2005 to 2021 (forecasted data for 2020 and 2021) 4 2 0 % –2 –4 –6 2005 2010 2015 2020 Germany Average of developed economies (Source adapted from: IMF and German Federal Statistical Office) Figure 4: Unemployment rate in Germany, percentage of labour force, 2005 to 2020 (2020 figure is forecasted) 12.5 11 . 7 % 10 . 8 % 10.0 9 % 8 . 1 % 7 . 7 % 7 . 8 % 7.5 7 . 1 % 6 . 8 % 6 . 9 % 6 . 7 % 6 . 4 % 6 . 1 % 6 . 1 % % 5 . 7 % 5 . 2 % 5 % 5.0 2.5 0 (Source adapted from: bundesagentur für arbeit.de and https://www.ft.com/ content/5486b247-c73e-4887-a2b2-528b23e301a6) Extract C Why Germany keeps to budget rules despite a slowdown in growth Germany’s economic boom is over, as it has entered recession. During the last ten years of economic growth well over 4 million jobs were created. The fear of recession has revived a debate in Germany: should the government spend more to stimulate growth? It is written into the German constitution that the fiscal 5 deficit cannot be greater than 0.35% of GDP, once the effects of the economic cycle have been removed. Germany’s budget has been in surplus since 2014 and the government is always reluctant to increase spending which would create a deficit. In 2018, aided by booming employment and low interest costs on existing debt, the budget ran to a surplus 1.9% of GDP. 10 Germany’s main trading partners have long been angered by German fiscal policy. The French President criticised Germany’s budget and current account surpluses that “always occur at the expense of others”. Large parts of Germany’s infrastructure need significant investment. As the economy has slowed, a decision to run a balanced-budget policy has become harder to defend. In 15 wealthy regions of Germany, crumbling schools have been closed for fear of collapse, and information and mobile technology on a wide scale needs to be modernised. The World Economic Forum reported that accessibility of fibre optic broadband also “remains the privilege of the few”. However, private sector firms, such as major motor manufacturers, are still willing to invest in new technology and the profitability of some of these 20 firms, in the long run, benefits as a result. The state development bank puts Germany’s investment shortfall at €138 billion (£120 billion). Arguments for a much more expansionary fiscal policy have failed to influence government policy. Big government programmes, such as a recent package to reduce Germany’s carbon emissions, are only implemented when they satisfy fiscal rules. 25 (Source adapted from: The Economist Nov 14th 2019 and https://www.ft.com/content/3cec4908-d164-11e9-8367-807ebd53ab77 7th September 2019 and https://www.ft.com/content/198f072e-4e42-11ea-95a0-43d18ec715f5 and https://www.ft.com/content/d89d9404-c586-11e9-a8e9-296ca66511c9 and https://www.ft.com/content/8f87c03c-93dc-11e8-b67b-b8205561c3fe) Extract D Germany drops to number 7 in the Global Competitiveness Index Despite being the largest economy in the European Union, Germany’s competitiveness is declining, according to the World Economic Forum (WEF). Germany dropped four places in the WEF’s Global Competitiveness Index, coming in as the seventh-most competitive economy. Out of the 103 indicators used in the report, Germany received lower scores in 5 53 areas in 2019. (Source: https://www.dw.com/en/germany-falls-in-global-competitiveness- ranking/a-50745071 8 October 2019)
(d) Evaluate the microeconomic and macroeconomic factors which are likely to determine the rate of economic growth in Germany relative to other developed economies. (25)
November 2021 · Paper 3 · Q2(e) 25 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=8, AO4=9 25-mark essay Either/or fiscal and monetary policypublic finances and taxation
Data and extracts for question 2The German economy Figure 1: German government budget balance, percentage of GDP, 2010 to 2019 1.9 2 1.5 1.2 1.2 0.9 0.6 0 0 –0.1 –1 % of GDP –2 –4 –4.2 –6 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 (Source adapted from: The Economist Nov 14th 2019) Figure 2: German national debt, percentage of GDP, 2010 to 2019 85 80 75 70 % of GDP 65 60 55 0 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 (Source adapted from: The Economist Nov 14th 2019) Figure 3: Annual percentage change in real GDP, Germany and average of developed economies, 2005 to 2021 (forecasted data for 2020 and 2021) 4 2 0 % –2 –4 –6 2005 2010 2015 2020 Germany Average of developed economies (Source adapted from: IMF and German Federal Statistical Office) Figure 4: Unemployment rate in Germany, percentage of labour force, 2005 to 2020 (2020 figure is forecasted) 12.5 11 . 7 % 10 . 8 % 10.0 9 % 8 . 1 % 7 . 7 % 7 . 8 % 7.5 7 . 1 % 6 . 8 % 6 . 9 % 6 . 7 % 6 . 4 % 6 . 1 % 6 . 1 % % 5 . 7 % 5 . 2 % 5 % 5.0 2.5 0 (Source adapted from: bundesagentur für arbeit.de and https://www.ft.com/ content/5486b247-c73e-4887-a2b2-528b23e301a6) Extract C Why Germany keeps to budget rules despite a slowdown in growth Germany’s economic boom is over, as it has entered recession. During the last ten years of economic growth well over 4 million jobs were created. The fear of recession has revived a debate in Germany: should the government spend more to stimulate growth? It is written into the German constitution that the fiscal 5 deficit cannot be greater than 0.35% of GDP, once the effects of the economic cycle have been removed. Germany’s budget has been in surplus since 2014 and the government is always reluctant to increase spending which would create a deficit. In 2018, aided by booming employment and low interest costs on existing debt, the budget ran to a surplus 1.9% of GDP. 10 Germany’s main trading partners have long been angered by German fiscal policy. The French President criticised Germany’s budget and current account surpluses that “always occur at the expense of others”. Large parts of Germany’s infrastructure need significant investment. As the economy has slowed, a decision to run a balanced-budget policy has become harder to defend. In 15 wealthy regions of Germany, crumbling schools have been closed for fear of collapse, and information and mobile technology on a wide scale needs to be modernised. The World Economic Forum reported that accessibility of fibre optic broadband also “remains the privilege of the few”. However, private sector firms, such as major motor manufacturers, are still willing to invest in new technology and the profitability of some of these 20 firms, in the long run, benefits as a result. The state development bank puts Germany’s investment shortfall at €138 billion (£120 billion). Arguments for a much more expansionary fiscal policy have failed to influence government policy. Big government programmes, such as a recent package to reduce Germany’s carbon emissions, are only implemented when they satisfy fiscal rules. 25 (Source adapted from: The Economist Nov 14th 2019 and https://www.ft.com/content/3cec4908-d164-11e9-8367-807ebd53ab77 7th September 2019 and https://www.ft.com/content/198f072e-4e42-11ea-95a0-43d18ec715f5 and https://www.ft.com/content/d89d9404-c586-11e9-a8e9-296ca66511c9 and https://www.ft.com/content/8f87c03c-93dc-11e8-b67b-b8205561c3fe) Extract D Germany drops to number 7 in the Global Competitiveness Index Despite being the largest economy in the European Union, Germany’s competitiveness is declining, according to the World Economic Forum (WEF). Germany dropped four places in the WEF’s Global Competitiveness Index, coming in as the seventh-most competitive economy. Out of the 103 indicators used in the report, Germany received lower scores in 5 53 areas in 2019. (Source: https://www.dw.com/en/germany-falls-in-global-competitiveness- ranking/a-50745071 8 October 2019)
(e) Evaluate the microeconomic and macroeconomic impacts of ‘a much more expansionary fiscal policy’ (Extract C line 23) on the German economy. (25)
October 2020 · AS Paper 1 · Q6(f) 20 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=6, AO4=6 20-mark essay Either/or economic systemsprice mechanism and surplus
Data and extracts for question 6The market for higher education in the UK Figure 1: Average graduate earnings, according to subject studied, compared to average non-graduate earnings (per cent) 2018 selected subjects. Economics Medicine Architecture Business Top 5 Law Bottom 5 Psychology Philosophy English Agriculture Creative arts –20% 0% 20% 40% (Source: adapted from https://www.ifs.org.uk/publications/13731 The impact of undergraduate degrees on early-career earnings, Research report, November 2018) Figure 2: Student loans outstanding at the end of financial years 2013 to 2018 in England 120 000 100 000 80 000 60 000 102 357 87 629 74 960 40 000 63 776 53 668 45 418 20 000 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Financial year (Source: adapted from https://www.slc.co.uk/official-statistics/ student-loans-debt-and-repayment/england.aspx) Figure 3: Number of applications to UCAS according to median income of area lowest household highest household income below £23 000 income above £35 400 90 000 80 000 70 000 60 000 50 000 40 000 30 000 20 000 10 000 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 (Source: adapted from https://www.ucas.com/corporate/data-and-analysis/ucas-undergraduate- releases/2018-cycle-applicant-figures-january-deadline) Extract A Rethinking tuition fees The value of a degree is significant. The latest data shows that the median university graduate income was £10 000 more than the average non-graduate income in 2018. This ‘graduate premium’ means graduates will contribute significantly to the economy. In addition, the government will benefit greatly from additional tax revenues. 5 However, funding higher education continues to be a major issue. English universities charge some of the world’s highest fees. Interest rates on student loans are now 6.3%. There are a large number of courses where graduates are likely to earn less than non-graduates, despite an average of £50 000 of debt. The Department for Education estimates that 45% of the value of loans will not be 10 repaid. Outstanding student loans in England totalled more than £100 billion in 2018. By 2023 total outstanding student loans are forecast to rise to £120 billion. One option for revising student fees could be to charge higher fees for courses that are more expensive to teach or that have a better chance of higher earnings. That would make Science or Mathematics degrees more expensive to study than English or 15 Philosophy. At most universities the level of fees is likely to be the same flat rate of £9 250 per year. However, science-based courses need more expensive equipment and courses such as medicine require more teaching time and personal instruction. Tuition fees were introduced in 1998 at £1 000 per year. They are currently £9 250. 20 Economists estimate that the price elasticity of demand for higher education is about –0.5. Charging £9 250 a year for an undergraduate degree makes England very expensive by international standards. Scotland has no fees for Scottish students, and fees in Wales and Northern Ireland are significantly lower. Much of Europe has low or no fees and Germany, which used to charge fees, has abolished them, replacing them with a graduate tax. 25 The only country with comparable fees is the United States. Top private colleges can charge more than the equivalent of £30 000 per year while state colleges can charge local students less than fees in England. Despite this, student numbers at English universities have continued to increase from 450 000 in 1998 to over 700 000 in 2018. Students from all backgrounds are more likely to 30 go to university than ever before. However, applicants from low-income areas are much less likely to go to university than applicants from high-income areas. The Universities and Colleges Admissions Service (UCAS) found that in the most deprived 10% of postal areas about 20% of young people went to university in 2018, compared with 50% in the highest income areas. Research 35 by University College London revealed that even when candidates from low-income areas had the same exam results, they were much less likely to apply to university than candidates from high-income areas. (Source: adapted from https://www.theguardian.com/education/2018/dec/16/change-in-student-loan- accounting-could-add-10bn-to-national-debt) Extract B Low-income university students twice as likely to drop out than high-income ones The number of students from low-income areas who drop out of university before finishing their degree is at its highest in five years, indicating a considerable waste of scarce educational resources. This news comes at the same time as a drive to recruit students from poorer backgrounds, with universities spending a total of £725 million on 5 access initiatives in the past academic year alone. A number of top universities have started to lower their A level grade offers to students from low-income areas, in an attempt to encourage them to apply. However, there is a danger with ‘enticing’ disadvantaged students through lower grade offers, if universities are not going to provide ongoing support for them once they begin their courses. 10 The latest figures show that 9% of disadvantaged undergraduates do not continue in higher education beyond their first year. In comparison, the average drop-out rate among students from the high-income backgrounds was less than 5%. The gap continues to widen. A report, published by the Office for Fair Access, concluded that: ‘The significance of 15 this for students is huge. Higher education can be a transformational experience that opens doors to rewarding careers and social mobility, but this is only the case if students achieve successful outcomes.’ (Source: adapted from https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06/28/number-poor-students-dropping- university-highest-level-five/)
(f) Evaluate the possible advantages of a free market approach to providing services such as education. (20)
October 2020 · AS Paper 1 · Q6(g) 20 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=6, AO4=6 20-mark essay Either/or externalitiesgovernment intervention in markets
Data and extracts for question 6The market for higher education in the UK Figure 1: Average graduate earnings, according to subject studied, compared to average non-graduate earnings (per cent) 2018 selected subjects. Economics Medicine Architecture Business Top 5 Law Bottom 5 Psychology Philosophy English Agriculture Creative arts –20% 0% 20% 40% (Source: adapted from https://www.ifs.org.uk/publications/13731 The impact of undergraduate degrees on early-career earnings, Research report, November 2018) Figure 2: Student loans outstanding at the end of financial years 2013 to 2018 in England 120 000 100 000 80 000 60 000 102 357 87 629 74 960 40 000 63 776 53 668 45 418 20 000 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Financial year (Source: adapted from https://www.slc.co.uk/official-statistics/ student-loans-debt-and-repayment/england.aspx) Figure 3: Number of applications to UCAS according to median income of area lowest household highest household income below £23 000 income above £35 400 90 000 80 000 70 000 60 000 50 000 40 000 30 000 20 000 10 000 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 (Source: adapted from https://www.ucas.com/corporate/data-and-analysis/ucas-undergraduate- releases/2018-cycle-applicant-figures-january-deadline) Extract A Rethinking tuition fees The value of a degree is significant. The latest data shows that the median university graduate income was £10 000 more than the average non-graduate income in 2018. This ‘graduate premium’ means graduates will contribute significantly to the economy. In addition, the government will benefit greatly from additional tax revenues. 5 However, funding higher education continues to be a major issue. English universities charge some of the world’s highest fees. Interest rates on student loans are now 6.3%. There are a large number of courses where graduates are likely to earn less than non-graduates, despite an average of £50 000 of debt. The Department for Education estimates that 45% of the value of loans will not be 10 repaid. Outstanding student loans in England totalled more than £100 billion in 2018. By 2023 total outstanding student loans are forecast to rise to £120 billion. One option for revising student fees could be to charge higher fees for courses that are more expensive to teach or that have a better chance of higher earnings. That would make Science or Mathematics degrees more expensive to study than English or 15 Philosophy. At most universities the level of fees is likely to be the same flat rate of £9 250 per year. However, science-based courses need more expensive equipment and courses such as medicine require more teaching time and personal instruction. Tuition fees were introduced in 1998 at £1 000 per year. They are currently £9 250. 20 Economists estimate that the price elasticity of demand for higher education is about –0.5. Charging £9 250 a year for an undergraduate degree makes England very expensive by international standards. Scotland has no fees for Scottish students, and fees in Wales and Northern Ireland are significantly lower. Much of Europe has low or no fees and Germany, which used to charge fees, has abolished them, replacing them with a graduate tax. 25 The only country with comparable fees is the United States. Top private colleges can charge more than the equivalent of £30 000 per year while state colleges can charge local students less than fees in England. Despite this, student numbers at English universities have continued to increase from 450 000 in 1998 to over 700 000 in 2018. Students from all backgrounds are more likely to 30 go to university than ever before. However, applicants from low-income areas are much less likely to go to university than applicants from high-income areas. The Universities and Colleges Admissions Service (UCAS) found that in the most deprived 10% of postal areas about 20% of young people went to university in 2018, compared with 50% in the highest income areas. Research 35 by University College London revealed that even when candidates from low-income areas had the same exam results, they were much less likely to apply to university than candidates from high-income areas. (Source: adapted from https://www.theguardian.com/education/2018/dec/16/change-in-student-loan- accounting-could-add-10bn-to-national-debt) Extract B Low-income university students twice as likely to drop out than high-income ones The number of students from low-income areas who drop out of university before finishing their degree is at its highest in five years, indicating a considerable waste of scarce educational resources. This news comes at the same time as a drive to recruit students from poorer backgrounds, with universities spending a total of £725 million on 5 access initiatives in the past academic year alone. A number of top universities have started to lower their A level grade offers to students from low-income areas, in an attempt to encourage them to apply. However, there is a danger with ‘enticing’ disadvantaged students through lower grade offers, if universities are not going to provide ongoing support for them once they begin their courses. 10 The latest figures show that 9% of disadvantaged undergraduates do not continue in higher education beyond their first year. In comparison, the average drop-out rate among students from the high-income backgrounds was less than 5%. The gap continues to widen. A report, published by the Office for Fair Access, concluded that: ‘The significance of 15 this for students is huge. Higher education can be a transformational experience that opens doors to rewarding careers and social mobility, but this is only the case if students achieve successful outcomes.’ (Source: adapted from https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06/28/number-poor-students-dropping- university-highest-level-five/)
(g) Evaluate whether government intervention is able to correct market failure in education. (20)
October 2020 · AS Paper 2 · Q6(f) 20 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=6, AO4=6 20-mark essay Either/or supply side policies
Data and extracts for question 6UK government budget and household consumption Figure 1: UK government spending and tax revenue as % of GDP, 1980–2018 50 45 40 35 30 25 0 1980 2018 1990 2000 2010 Government spending Government tax revenue (Source: adapted from Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), http://cdn.obr.uk/EFO- MaRch_2018.pdf © Crown copyright 2018) Figure 2: UK real household consumption, quarterly, £ billions, 1997 to 2018 (Source: adapted from ONS, www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/satelliteaccounts/ bulletins/consumertrends/apriltojune2018) Extract A UK household consumption Despite the slow growth in real household disposable incomes, consumer spending rose in 2017. Annual spending per person increased by £589, when compared with 2016. This may have reflected UK households’ delay in adjusting to the increase in inflation that was associated with the fall in the exchange rate of the British pound. The increase 5 in consumption has also been driven by low interest rates. In 2017 UK house prices increased by an average of 5.1%. UK consumers have financed most of their spending by borrowing on credit cards in order to maintain their living standards. In 2017 borrowing on credit cards rose by 9.6%, the second-highest level since before the financial crisis. This has increased the Bank of 10 England’s concerns about the sustainability of borrowing, given the slow growth in real incomes. The Bank has also indicated that the base interest rate was likely to rise faster than previously expected. More expensive credit could therefore constrain the ability of households to spend. (Source: adapted from ‘Consumer Trends UK’, ONS, https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/ nationalaccounts/ satelliteaccounts/bulletins/consumertrends/octobertodecember2017 and © Crown copyright 2018) Extract B Reduction of the UK’s budget deficit Since 2010 many economists have believed that the biggest problem facing the government was the rising budget deficit. In late 2017, the UK’s Chancellor of the Exchequer announced that the government would continue with its plans to decrease its budget deficit. To address this issue, the government further reduced welfare payments 5 and introduced extra spending cuts in the public sector. The UK government had estimated that the fall in UK productivity since the financial crisis was only temporary. However, it has now accepted that this fall in the level of productivity is a long-term issue. Subsequently, the UK’s forecast long-term trend rate of growth was reduced. Slower growth means lower tax receipts, higher spending and a 10 bigger budget deficit. Some economists have suggested that the government should not pursue additional reductions in the budget deficit. They have also claimed that the responsibility of the government is not to balance the budget but to balance the economy by moving it to full employment. 15 (Source: adapted from ‘Philip Hammond must ditch deficit reduction and invest. But will he?’, The Guardian, https:// www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/nov/19/philip-hammond-must-ditch-deficit- reduction-and-invest-but-will-he’)
(f) Evaluate supply-side policies that could be used to increase the UK’s rate of economic growth. (20)
October 2020 · AS Paper 2 · Q6(g) 20 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=6, AO4=6 20-mark essay Either/or fiscal and monetary policymacroeconomic objectives
Data and extracts for question 6UK government budget and household consumption Figure 1: UK government spending and tax revenue as % of GDP, 1980–2018 50 45 40 35 30 25 0 1980 2018 1990 2000 2010 Government spending Government tax revenue (Source: adapted from Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), http://cdn.obr.uk/EFO- MaRch_2018.pdf © Crown copyright 2018) Figure 2: UK real household consumption, quarterly, £ billions, 1997 to 2018 (Source: adapted from ONS, www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/satelliteaccounts/ bulletins/consumertrends/apriltojune2018) Extract A UK household consumption Despite the slow growth in real household disposable incomes, consumer spending rose in 2017. Annual spending per person increased by £589, when compared with 2016. This may have reflected UK households’ delay in adjusting to the increase in inflation that was associated with the fall in the exchange rate of the British pound. The increase 5 in consumption has also been driven by low interest rates. In 2017 UK house prices increased by an average of 5.1%. UK consumers have financed most of their spending by borrowing on credit cards in order to maintain their living standards. In 2017 borrowing on credit cards rose by 9.6%, the second-highest level since before the financial crisis. This has increased the Bank of 10 England’s concerns about the sustainability of borrowing, given the slow growth in real incomes. The Bank has also indicated that the base interest rate was likely to rise faster than previously expected. More expensive credit could therefore constrain the ability of households to spend. (Source: adapted from ‘Consumer Trends UK’, ONS, https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/ nationalaccounts/ satelliteaccounts/bulletins/consumertrends/octobertodecember2017 and © Crown copyright 2018) Extract B Reduction of the UK’s budget deficit Since 2010 many economists have believed that the biggest problem facing the government was the rising budget deficit. In late 2017, the UK’s Chancellor of the Exchequer announced that the government would continue with its plans to decrease its budget deficit. To address this issue, the government further reduced welfare payments 5 and introduced extra spending cuts in the public sector. The UK government had estimated that the fall in UK productivity since the financial crisis was only temporary. However, it has now accepted that this fall in the level of productivity is a long-term issue. Subsequently, the UK’s forecast long-term trend rate of growth was reduced. Slower growth means lower tax receipts, higher spending and a 10 bigger budget deficit. Some economists have suggested that the government should not pursue additional reductions in the budget deficit. They have also claimed that the responsibility of the government is not to balance the budget but to balance the economy by moving it to full employment. 15 (Source: adapted from ‘Philip Hammond must ditch deficit reduction and invest. But will he?’, The Guardian, https:// www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/nov/19/philip-hammond-must-ditch-deficit- reduction-and-invest-but-will-he’)
(g) Evaluate the likely macroeconomic effects of the UK government pursuing a policy of reducing its budget deficit. (20)
October 2020 · Paper 1 · Q7 25 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=8, AO4=9 25-mark essay Either/or price elasticity of demandexternalities
7 The International Energy Agency has predicted that oil use by cars will peak in 2025 because of the increasing number of drivers switching to electric vehicles. (Source adapted from: https://www.thetimes.co.uk) Evaluate the likely microeconomic consequences of consumers shifting from vehicles powered by fuel obtained from oil to electric‑powered vehicles.
October 2020 · Paper 1 · Q8 25 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=8, AO4=9 25-mark essay Either/or monopsony and contestability
8 ‘Amazon.com, the giant online retailer, has too much power.’ It uses its market power to put a squeeze on publishers, in effect driving down the prices it pays for books. If a publisher refuses, Amazon may take action by ‘delaying their delivery, raising their prices, and steering customers to other publishers’. (Source adapted from: https://www.nytimes.com) Evaluate the likely costs of a monopsony operating in a market such as book retailing.
October 2020 · Paper 2 · Q7 25 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=8, AO4=9 25-mark essay Either/or public finances and taxationfiscal and monetary policy
7 In 2018, the United States Government cut the corporation tax rate (tax on company profits) from 35% to 21%. Income tax rates for US citizens were also reduced: for example, the top rate of income tax was cut from 39.6% to 37%. (Source adapted from: https://www.nytimes.com/) Evaluate the likely impact of cutting tax rates as a policy to increase economic growth.
October 2020 · Paper 2 · Q8 25 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=8, AO4=9 25-mark essay Either/or poverty and inequality
8 In terms of income distribution and wealth distribution Brazil is one of the most unequal countries in the world. Its income Gini coefficient is 0.449 and it is ranked number 2 in the world for its wealth inequality. Evaluate possible economic causes of income and wealth inequalities within a country such as Brazil. (Source: https://www.gfmag.com/)
October 2020 · Paper 3 · Q1(d) 25 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=8, AO4=9 25-mark essay Either/or fiscal and monetary policyrevenues costs and profits
Data and extracts for question 1Turkey – an emerging economy Figure 1: Turkey’s central bank lending rate, percent, 2013–2018 25 20 15 % 10 5 0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Figure 2: Selected emerging economy exchange rates, percentage change against the US dollar: January 2018 compared to January 2016. Russian rouble South African rand Polish zloty Hong Kong dollar Chinese renminbi Indian rupee Turkish lira Argentine peso -60 -40 -20 0 20 Percentage changes (Source adapted from: FT.com) Extract A Can Turkey’s central bank avoid another rate rise? At an annual rate of 25%, Turkey’s inflation is alarming. However, it may have peaked. This may be a turning point for the economically struggling country, whose currency (the Turkish lira) has lost nearly a third of its value against the US dollar in 2018. The central bank may be able to avoid tightening monetary policy further, as a severe economic 5 adjustment is already well under way. Turkey is highly indebted in foreign currency. The Turkish government takes measures against excessive appreciation or depreciation of the Turkish lira to reduce financial stability risks. The financial market faces difficulties in trying to restore foreign investors’ confidence. Consumer prices increased by 2.7% in October 2018, a much lower rate than the 6.3% 10 recorded in September 2018. The lira has stabilised, having risen 16% since the central bank raised interest rates by 6.25 percentage points. However, the government wants lower borrowing costs to fuel credit growth and economic expansion. Timothy Ash at a London investment bank says at this point it’s “illogical” to raise interest rates again in Turkey. That’s because Turkey’s economy is already experiencing a severe slowdown. 15 In the long term Turkey’s economic growth is expected to be above that of other emerging markets such as Brazil, Russia and China. Turkey’s private sector is resilient. Between 2018–50 we expect Turkey to grow by an annual average of 3.1%. Brazil is expected to grow by an annual average of 2.1%, Russia by 1.6% and China by 2.8%. GDP growth will nevertheless be well below that recorded in 2004–07 and 2010–15. Average 20 growth in GDP per head will be substantially lower, mainly reflecting the expected rise in the total population. (Source adapted from: https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2018/11/06/1541508141000/Can‑Turkey‑s-central‑bank- avoid‑another‑rate‑hike‑/. 6 Nov 2018 Colby Smith and one sentence The president wants lower borrowing costs to fuel credit growth and economic expansion from https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/aug/07/turkey‑urged‑to‑announce-emergency-interest‑rate‑hike Larry Elliott 7/8/18 and http://country.eiu.com/article.aspx?articleid=157174199&Country=Turkey&topic=Economy&subtopic= Long-term+outlook&subsubtopic=Summary) Extract B Turkey aims to bin the plastic bag You get a free plastic bag whenever you go to a shop, even if it is just to buy a loaf of bread or a chocolate bar. In Turkey, plastic bags are everywhere, with millions being thrown away, and their use is causing a growing environmental problem. In Istanbul, the country’s biggest city with about 12 million people, around 10 000 tonnes 5 of waste are being collected every day. Plastic bags and other plastic waste make up 950 tonnes, or almost 10%, of the total waste. The Turkish government said it was looking at ways to discourage the consumption of single‑use plastic bags. One possible step currently under review is a ban of the black bags that are said to contain carcinogens. Another is that the state may raise taxes 10 on plastic products, which could lead to supermarkets charging consumers for the bags. In Corlu, a town north‑west of Istanbul, a local environmental group distributed 20 000 canvas bags to shoppers in one month. In some parts of Turkey, plastic bags are completely banned, with heavy fines for both firms and consumers who use them. (Source adapted from: tseibert@thenational.ae https://www.thenational.ae/world/europe/turkey‑aims‑to‑bin‑the‑plastic‑bag‑1.530059 accessed 11/11/18) Extract C Istanbul’s third airport set to be the busiest in the world Istanbul’s third airport is being constructed over an area of 76.5 million square metres, to the north of Istanbul. When complete, the new airport will have six runways and have an annual passenger capacity of up to 200 million people, making it potentially the world’s busiest airport. “This airport is going to be the most important hub between Asia and 5 Europe,” said one business leader. The airport design includes high vaulted ceilings and spacious, modern and efficient design – and its tulip‑shaped air traffic control tower won the 2016 International Architecture Award. It uses mobile applications and artificial intelligence for customers, is energy efficient and has a high‑tech security system. The site employs 36 000 people and 10 is estimated to cost the equivalent of £10 billion. However, the rush to meet the deadline set by the Turkish government is a major cause of accidents on the construction site, according to the construction workers’ union. (Source adapted from: https://www.lonelyplanet.com/news/2018/08/08/istanbuls‑huge‑new‑airport/ and https://www.voanews.com/a/istanbul‑to‑unveil‑new‑airport‑seeks‑to‑be‑world‑s‑biggest/4632308.html)
(d) Evaluate the likely microeconomic and macroeconomic effects of a rise in interest rates in Turkey. (25)
October 2020 · Paper 3 · Q1(e) 25 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=8, AO4=9 25-mark essay Either/or supply side policiesexternalities
Data and extracts for question 1Turkey – an emerging economy Figure 1: Turkey’s central bank lending rate, percent, 2013–2018 25 20 15 % 10 5 0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Figure 2: Selected emerging economy exchange rates, percentage change against the US dollar: January 2018 compared to January 2016. Russian rouble South African rand Polish zloty Hong Kong dollar Chinese renminbi Indian rupee Turkish lira Argentine peso -60 -40 -20 0 20 Percentage changes (Source adapted from: FT.com) Extract A Can Turkey’s central bank avoid another rate rise? At an annual rate of 25%, Turkey’s inflation is alarming. However, it may have peaked. This may be a turning point for the economically struggling country, whose currency (the Turkish lira) has lost nearly a third of its value against the US dollar in 2018. The central bank may be able to avoid tightening monetary policy further, as a severe economic 5 adjustment is already well under way. Turkey is highly indebted in foreign currency. The Turkish government takes measures against excessive appreciation or depreciation of the Turkish lira to reduce financial stability risks. The financial market faces difficulties in trying to restore foreign investors’ confidence. Consumer prices increased by 2.7% in October 2018, a much lower rate than the 6.3% 10 recorded in September 2018. The lira has stabilised, having risen 16% since the central bank raised interest rates by 6.25 percentage points. However, the government wants lower borrowing costs to fuel credit growth and economic expansion. Timothy Ash at a London investment bank says at this point it’s “illogical” to raise interest rates again in Turkey. That’s because Turkey’s economy is already experiencing a severe slowdown. 15 In the long term Turkey’s economic growth is expected to be above that of other emerging markets such as Brazil, Russia and China. Turkey’s private sector is resilient. Between 2018–50 we expect Turkey to grow by an annual average of 3.1%. Brazil is expected to grow by an annual average of 2.1%, Russia by 1.6% and China by 2.8%. GDP growth will nevertheless be well below that recorded in 2004–07 and 2010–15. Average 20 growth in GDP per head will be substantially lower, mainly reflecting the expected rise in the total population. (Source adapted from: https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2018/11/06/1541508141000/Can‑Turkey‑s-central‑bank- avoid‑another‑rate‑hike‑/. 6 Nov 2018 Colby Smith and one sentence The president wants lower borrowing costs to fuel credit growth and economic expansion from https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/aug/07/turkey‑urged‑to‑announce-emergency-interest‑rate‑hike Larry Elliott 7/8/18 and http://country.eiu.com/article.aspx?articleid=157174199&Country=Turkey&topic=Economy&subtopic= Long-term+outlook&subsubtopic=Summary) Extract B Turkey aims to bin the plastic bag You get a free plastic bag whenever you go to a shop, even if it is just to buy a loaf of bread or a chocolate bar. In Turkey, plastic bags are everywhere, with millions being thrown away, and their use is causing a growing environmental problem. In Istanbul, the country’s biggest city with about 12 million people, around 10 000 tonnes 5 of waste are being collected every day. Plastic bags and other plastic waste make up 950 tonnes, or almost 10%, of the total waste. The Turkish government said it was looking at ways to discourage the consumption of single‑use plastic bags. One possible step currently under review is a ban of the black bags that are said to contain carcinogens. Another is that the state may raise taxes 10 on plastic products, which could lead to supermarkets charging consumers for the bags. In Corlu, a town north‑west of Istanbul, a local environmental group distributed 20 000 canvas bags to shoppers in one month. In some parts of Turkey, plastic bags are completely banned, with heavy fines for both firms and consumers who use them. (Source adapted from: tseibert@thenational.ae https://www.thenational.ae/world/europe/turkey‑aims‑to‑bin‑the‑plastic‑bag‑1.530059 accessed 11/11/18) Extract C Istanbul’s third airport set to be the busiest in the world Istanbul’s third airport is being constructed over an area of 76.5 million square metres, to the north of Istanbul. When complete, the new airport will have six runways and have an annual passenger capacity of up to 200 million people, making it potentially the world’s busiest airport. “This airport is going to be the most important hub between Asia and 5 Europe,” said one business leader. The airport design includes high vaulted ceilings and spacious, modern and efficient design – and its tulip‑shaped air traffic control tower won the 2016 International Architecture Award. It uses mobile applications and artificial intelligence for customers, is energy efficient and has a high‑tech security system. The site employs 36 000 people and 10 is estimated to cost the equivalent of £10 billion. However, the rush to meet the deadline set by the Turkish government is a major cause of accidents on the construction site, according to the construction workers’ union. (Source adapted from: https://www.lonelyplanet.com/news/2018/08/08/istanbuls‑huge‑new‑airport/ and https://www.voanews.com/a/istanbul‑to‑unveil‑new‑airport‑seeks‑to‑be‑world‑s‑biggest/4632308.html)
(e) Evaluate the microeconomic and macroeconomic impact of large infrastructure projects such as the building of a third airport in Istanbul. (25)
October 2020 · Paper 3 · Q2(d) 25 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=8, AO4=9 25-mark essay Either/or international competitivenesssupply side policies
Data and extracts for question 2The UK economy Figure 3: GDP per hour worked, nominal values at PPPs, percentage above or below UK level, 2018 Japan Italy US France Germany -10 0 10 20 30 40 Percentages (Source adapted from: ONS.gov.uk) Figure 4: UK index of output per hour worked, base year 2016 = 100 130 120 110 100 Index 90 80 70 60 50 2000 2005 2010 2015 2018 Key Productivity if pre-crisis trend had continued Actual UK productivity (Source adapted from: ONS.gov.uk) Figure 5: Proportion of adults with low literacy and/or numeracy skills, by age, selected countries Aged 16-24 Aged 55-65 Italy US England Spain N. Ireland France Canada Germany Japan S Korea 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 (Source adapted from: OECD.org) (Figures 3, 4 and 5 Source: FT.com 2016 data published https://www.ft.com/content/6ada0002‑9a57‑11e8‑9702‑5946bae86e6d 2018) Extract D The end of the High Street? Homebase, the UK’s second‑largest do‑it‑yourself (DIY) retailer, made £20–40 million a year profit up to 2016. The Australian conglomerate Wesfarmers bought Homebase for £340 million in 2016, and began to rebrand 24 stores under its own name. It scaled back on curtain, cushion and other homeware sales in favour of power tools and building materials. 5 In 2018 Wesfarmers sold the DIY chain for £1, in the face of “extremely challenging” market conditions and excess store space. The chain was bought by restructuring specialist Hilco, which had also rescued the music chain HMV in 2013, and the stores have gone back to using the Homebase name. Over 70% of Homebase stores are currently losing money and the new owner wants to exit loss‑making stores and agree to rent reductions, as sales 10 fell 10% in 2018. Homebase has gone back to popular products and brands dropped by its previous owner Wesfarmers. The closures will add to the mounting job losses on Britain’s high streets. About 25 000 jobs have gone in the first seven months of 2018, according to analysis by an economics thinktank. A further 8 300 jobs are under threat at suppliers, with the multiplier effect 15 meaning that GDP is £1.5 billion less than projected. Several Marks & Spencer clothing stores closed their doors for the last time as the high‑street chain pushes ahead with a transformation plan. It plans to close 100 stores by 2022. Toys R Us, Poundworld and Maplin have shut down completely, while New Look, Mothercare and Carpetright have plans to close hundreds of stores as losses rise sharply. 20 Increasing rents and higher business rates have occurred at the same time as falling consumer confidence. Meanwhile, House of Fraser employees and pensioners are nervously awaiting more details about their future. The £90 million rescue deal by Sports Direct, the sportswear chain controlled by Mike Ashley, will protect 16 000 jobs for the time being. (Source adapted from: https://www.ft.com/content/00d0bb9e‑a6ee‑11e8‑8ecf‑a7ae1beff35b 24 August 2018 and https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/aug/13/homebase‑close‑80‑stores‑high‑street‑job‑losses‑mount Patrick Collinson 13 Aug 2018)
(d) Evaluate possible microeconomic and macroeconomic policies which could be used to improve UK competitiveness. (25)
October 2020 · Paper 3 · Q2(e) 25 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=8, AO4=9 25-mark essay Either/or aggregate supplylabour market
Data and extracts for question 2The UK economy Figure 3: GDP per hour worked, nominal values at PPPs, percentage above or below UK level, 2018 Japan Italy US France Germany -10 0 10 20 30 40 Percentages (Source adapted from: ONS.gov.uk) Figure 4: UK index of output per hour worked, base year 2016 = 100 130 120 110 100 Index 90 80 70 60 50 2000 2005 2010 2015 2018 Key Productivity if pre-crisis trend had continued Actual UK productivity (Source adapted from: ONS.gov.uk) Figure 5: Proportion of adults with low literacy and/or numeracy skills, by age, selected countries Aged 16-24 Aged 55-65 Italy US England Spain N. Ireland France Canada Germany Japan S Korea 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 (Source adapted from: OECD.org) (Figures 3, 4 and 5 Source: FT.com 2016 data published https://www.ft.com/content/6ada0002‑9a57‑11e8‑9702‑5946bae86e6d 2018) Extract D The end of the High Street? Homebase, the UK’s second‑largest do‑it‑yourself (DIY) retailer, made £20–40 million a year profit up to 2016. The Australian conglomerate Wesfarmers bought Homebase for £340 million in 2016, and began to rebrand 24 stores under its own name. It scaled back on curtain, cushion and other homeware sales in favour of power tools and building materials. 5 In 2018 Wesfarmers sold the DIY chain for £1, in the face of “extremely challenging” market conditions and excess store space. The chain was bought by restructuring specialist Hilco, which had also rescued the music chain HMV in 2013, and the stores have gone back to using the Homebase name. Over 70% of Homebase stores are currently losing money and the new owner wants to exit loss‑making stores and agree to rent reductions, as sales 10 fell 10% in 2018. Homebase has gone back to popular products and brands dropped by its previous owner Wesfarmers. The closures will add to the mounting job losses on Britain’s high streets. About 25 000 jobs have gone in the first seven months of 2018, according to analysis by an economics thinktank. A further 8 300 jobs are under threat at suppliers, with the multiplier effect 15 meaning that GDP is £1.5 billion less than projected. Several Marks & Spencer clothing stores closed their doors for the last time as the high‑street chain pushes ahead with a transformation plan. It plans to close 100 stores by 2022. Toys R Us, Poundworld and Maplin have shut down completely, while New Look, Mothercare and Carpetright have plans to close hundreds of stores as losses rise sharply. 20 Increasing rents and higher business rates have occurred at the same time as falling consumer confidence. Meanwhile, House of Fraser employees and pensioners are nervously awaiting more details about their future. The £90 million rescue deal by Sports Direct, the sportswear chain controlled by Mike Ashley, will protect 16 000 jobs for the time being. (Source adapted from: https://www.ft.com/content/00d0bb9e‑a6ee‑11e8‑8ecf‑a7ae1beff35b 24 August 2018 and https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/aug/13/homebase‑close‑80‑stores‑high‑street‑job‑losses‑mount Patrick Collinson 13 Aug 2018)
(e) Evaluate the microeconomic and macroeconomic effects of a decline in the literacy and numeracy skills of a country’s young workers. (25)
June 2019 · AS Paper 1 · Q6(f) 20 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=6, AO4=6 20-mark essay Either/or government intervention in marketssupply and demand
Data and extracts for question 6Health provision Figure 1: National Health Service (NHS) in England: Government spending and projected funding gap, £ billions, 2015 to 2020 140 Government spending required to meet forecast demand 130 120 £ billions 110 100 Government spending on the NHS 90 0 2015 2016 2018 2019 2017 2020 (Source: https://www.economist.com/news/britain/21706563-nhs-mess- reformers-believe-new-models-health-care-many-pioneered) Figure 2: Percentage of NHS patients in England waiting over 18 weeks for non-emergency treatment 12% 10% 10.1% Jan 2017 8% 5.7% Jan 2013 6% 4% 2% 0% Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan 2017 (Source: https://www.statista.com/chart/8813/more-and- more-people-made-to-wait-by-the-nhs/) Extract A Hospitals already full National Health Service (NHS) managers’ warned that bed occupancy rates are approaching 99% in some parts of the country, compared with recommended levels of 85%. In 2017 the number of patients waiting for non-urgent treatment passed the four million mark, the highest figure for almost a decade. 5 The chief executive of the NHS suggested that waiting list targets for routine operations such as hip and knee replacements would have to be sacrificed in order to protect other services, including accident and emergency (A&E) and cancer care. However, the government has insisted waiting time targets must still be met. Recently the Chancellor awarded the NHS £2.8 billion over three years, including £1.6 billion 10 in 2018 - less than the £4 billion which NHS officials had asked for to keep up with an ageing population and new medical technologies. NHS managers said there was now very little spare capacity in the system, warning of shortages of paramedics, doctors, A&E consultants and nurses. (Source: adapted from http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/12/07/hospitals- already-full-bursting-pressures-mount-warn-nhs-chiefs/) Extract B How health care is funded Most countries have a mixed economy of health provision typically funded from taxation, patient fees and private health insurance. The NHS was launched in the UK in 1948 to ensure direct state provision by the government of health care ‘free at the point of use’. The NHS is mainly funded from 5 general taxation. However, some NHS patients pay for some of their medical care, such as prescriptions to buy medicine. In the ongoing debate about how best to fund the NHS, some people have proposed introducing a £12 charge for visiting a General Practitioner (GP) doctor. Proponents argue that such a charge would deter overuse of GP services by those who do not have 10 genuine health needs. It would also raise additional money for the NHS and create incentives which will stimulate innovation and more choice. Estimates suggested that a £12 charge on the 450 million visits a year to GPs could have raised enough to cover hospitals’ overspend in 2016. Based on exemptions for prescriptions, 90% of patients will not be charged including the elderly, children and low 15 income groups. There would also be administrative costs of collecting the charge and verifying exemptions. These arrangements would significantly reduce the amount a charge would generate, assuming no one paying would be dissuaded from visiting their GP. The proportion of people in the UK taking out private health insurance (PHI) to pay for private health care has increased to 10.6%, despite significant increases in the 20 prices of treatment in private hospitals. Some economists argue that the government should provide subsidies to encourage people to take out private health insurance. This would reduce the burden on the NHS by taking some people out of the state system. Furthermore it is argued that private health care increases choice for users, encourages competition and drives up standards of care. 25 A typical PHI policy for a healthy 35-year-old costs about £650 a year but this rises steeply to £2 300 for those aged 70, when claims are far more likely. The level of contribution is based on their risk of requiring health care. PHI also tends to incur high management and administrative costs due to the resources required to assess risk and claims. Also there is the possibility of market failure given asymmetric information. 30 (Source: adapted from https://www.kingsfund.org.uk/ publications/how-health-care-is-funded) Extract C Public parks are a public good Public parks are places which people can use for free to exercise or to relax. Parkrun Limited organises free weekly runs in local parks attracting hundreds of joggers per park to enjoy healthy exercise. The government is proposing to ban local authorities charging Parkrun for the use of public parks to fund the maintenance of public parks. The 5 government considers that it is appropriate for the public to pay a reasonable sum for the private use of a facility such as a tennis court or a football pitch which may be used exclusively. However, the government does not consider it appropriate for a local authority to charge a volunteer community group ‘seeking to provide a free weekly event’ for the use of a public park. Parkrun share the park with other park users. Although a running 10 course may be marked out there is no restriction on other people using the park. (Source: adapted from © Crown Copyright Running Free – Government consultation on preserving the free use of public parks, April 2017, https://www.gov.uk/ government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/608372/ Parkrun_ConDoc.pdf and http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/14/ councils-banned-charging-runners-take-part-regular-saturday/)
(f) Evaluate possible ways the government could intervene to reduce the excess demand for state-funded health care. (20)
June 2019 · AS Paper 1 · Q6(g) 20 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=6, AO4=6 20-mark essay Either/or economic systemsexternalities
Data and extracts for question 6Health provision Figure 1: National Health Service (NHS) in England: Government spending and projected funding gap, £ billions, 2015 to 2020 140 Government spending required to meet forecast demand 130 120 £ billions 110 100 Government spending on the NHS 90 0 2015 2016 2018 2019 2017 2020 (Source: https://www.economist.com/news/britain/21706563-nhs-mess- reformers-believe-new-models-health-care-many-pioneered) Figure 2: Percentage of NHS patients in England waiting over 18 weeks for non-emergency treatment 12% 10% 10.1% Jan 2017 8% 5.7% Jan 2013 6% 4% 2% 0% Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan 2017 (Source: https://www.statista.com/chart/8813/more-and- more-people-made-to-wait-by-the-nhs/) Extract A Hospitals already full National Health Service (NHS) managers’ warned that bed occupancy rates are approaching 99% in some parts of the country, compared with recommended levels of 85%. In 2017 the number of patients waiting for non-urgent treatment passed the four million mark, the highest figure for almost a decade. 5 The chief executive of the NHS suggested that waiting list targets for routine operations such as hip and knee replacements would have to be sacrificed in order to protect other services, including accident and emergency (A&E) and cancer care. However, the government has insisted waiting time targets must still be met. Recently the Chancellor awarded the NHS £2.8 billion over three years, including £1.6 billion 10 in 2018 - less than the £4 billion which NHS officials had asked for to keep up with an ageing population and new medical technologies. NHS managers said there was now very little spare capacity in the system, warning of shortages of paramedics, doctors, A&E consultants and nurses. (Source: adapted from http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/12/07/hospitals- already-full-bursting-pressures-mount-warn-nhs-chiefs/) Extract B How health care is funded Most countries have a mixed economy of health provision typically funded from taxation, patient fees and private health insurance. The NHS was launched in the UK in 1948 to ensure direct state provision by the government of health care ‘free at the point of use’. The NHS is mainly funded from 5 general taxation. However, some NHS patients pay for some of their medical care, such as prescriptions to buy medicine. In the ongoing debate about how best to fund the NHS, some people have proposed introducing a £12 charge for visiting a General Practitioner (GP) doctor. Proponents argue that such a charge would deter overuse of GP services by those who do not have 10 genuine health needs. It would also raise additional money for the NHS and create incentives which will stimulate innovation and more choice. Estimates suggested that a £12 charge on the 450 million visits a year to GPs could have raised enough to cover hospitals’ overspend in 2016. Based on exemptions for prescriptions, 90% of patients will not be charged including the elderly, children and low 15 income groups. There would also be administrative costs of collecting the charge and verifying exemptions. These arrangements would significantly reduce the amount a charge would generate, assuming no one paying would be dissuaded from visiting their GP. The proportion of people in the UK taking out private health insurance (PHI) to pay for private health care has increased to 10.6%, despite significant increases in the 20 prices of treatment in private hospitals. Some economists argue that the government should provide subsidies to encourage people to take out private health insurance. This would reduce the burden on the NHS by taking some people out of the state system. Furthermore it is argued that private health care increases choice for users, encourages competition and drives up standards of care. 25 A typical PHI policy for a healthy 35-year-old costs about £650 a year but this rises steeply to £2 300 for those aged 70, when claims are far more likely. The level of contribution is based on their risk of requiring health care. PHI also tends to incur high management and administrative costs due to the resources required to assess risk and claims. Also there is the possibility of market failure given asymmetric information. 30 (Source: adapted from https://www.kingsfund.org.uk/ publications/how-health-care-is-funded) Extract C Public parks are a public good Public parks are places which people can use for free to exercise or to relax. Parkrun Limited organises free weekly runs in local parks attracting hundreds of joggers per park to enjoy healthy exercise. The government is proposing to ban local authorities charging Parkrun for the use of public parks to fund the maintenance of public parks. The 5 government considers that it is appropriate for the public to pay a reasonable sum for the private use of a facility such as a tennis court or a football pitch which may be used exclusively. However, the government does not consider it appropriate for a local authority to charge a volunteer community group ‘seeking to provide a free weekly event’ for the use of a public park. Parkrun share the park with other park users. Although a running 10 course may be marked out there is no restriction on other people using the park. (Source: adapted from © Crown Copyright Running Free – Government consultation on preserving the free use of public parks, April 2017, https://www.gov.uk/ government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/608372/ Parkrun_ConDoc.pdf and http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/14/ councils-banned-charging-runners-take-part-regular-saturday/)
(g) Evaluate the possible disadvantages of a free market approach to providing health care. (20)
June 2019 · AS Paper 2 · Q6(f) 20 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=6, AO4=6 20-mark essay Either/or fiscal and monetary policyinflation
Data and extracts for question 6UK inflation and economic growth Figure 1: UK inflation rate as measured by annual percentage changes in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), January 2014 to January 2018 3.5 3.0 % 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 (Source: www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Pages/inflationreport/2017/aug.aspx) Figure 2: Selected changes to the CPI basket of goods and services, 2017 IN OUT Non-dairy milk Apple cider Jigsaw puzzles Menthol cigarettes Child scooters Child swings Cycling helmets Basic mobile phones (Source: www.theguardian.com/business/2017/mar/14/uk-inflation- ons-basket-goods-gin-cycling-helmets) Figure 3: UK exports, £ billions per month, January 2014 to January 2018 52 50 £ billions 48 46 44 42 40 0 (Source: Trading Economics, ONS - https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/exports) Figure 4: Annual percentage change in real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), 2014-2017 2014 2015 2016 2017 United Kingdom 3.1 2.2 1.8 2.0 Developing countries (average) 4.7 4.2 4.1 4.5 (Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook 2017) Extract A Rising inflation After January 2017, the inflation rate, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), in the UK has exceeded the Bank of England’s 2% target. Sharp increases in food prices as a result of the fall in the exchange rate of the pound have contributed to rising inflation. Between January and September 2017, food prices have increased by 3.5 percentage 5 points. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has identified that the rapid increase in food prices affected people on low fixed incomes the most. It leaves them with very little money to spend on relatively more expensive items. Moreover, the Bank of England has observed a rise in the size of personal debt relative to income. In order to maintain their standard of 10 living, many consumers on low fixed incomes are using their credit cards and taking out short-term loans to fund their spending. Inflation rose to over 3% at the end of 2017 leading to the Monetary Policy Committee increasing the base rate of interest by 0.25 percentage points to 0.5% in November 2017. Wage growth has been lagging behind price rises and this is expected to continue. 15 Basic wage increases are expected to be only around 1%. This has heaped considerable pressure on households. The ONS has updated the shopping basket that is used in the measurement of UK inflation, to reflect the lifestyle of households in the country. Technological advancements, changes in consumer tastes and a move towards health, fitness and 20 gluten-free products have made it essential to revise the 2017 basket. (Source: adapted from ‘UK inflation tipped to rise again with wages forecast to stagnate’, The Guardian, https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/aug/13/ uk-inflation-tipped-to-rise-again-with-wages-forecast-to-stagnate#img-1) Extract B Economic growth and living standards Economic growth is expected to accelerate again as foreign demand for UK exports increases due to the global economic recovery. According to some economists, consumer spending is no longer the engine of growth for the UK. The increase in exports, which is largely due to the fall in the exchange rate of the pound, is expected to be the most 5 significant driver of the UK’s economic growth. Some economists have proposed that the quality of economic growth needs to be measured and not just the quantity. This will allow governments to understand how GDP growth affects the living standards of its citizens. They want governments to publish data on the quality of life alongside GDP data as economic growth varies across the country 10 with jobs and wages distributed unevenly. Economic growth figures also hide differences that are not considered in GDP calculations. In 2017, it was estimated that the relative size of the informal economy of developing countries was nearly five times greater than that of the UK. (Source: adapted from ‘Growth to accelerate as UK economy bounces back’, The Telegraph, http://www.telegraph.co.uk /business/2017/08/01/ growth-accelerate-uk-economy-bounces-back/; ‘GDP is not enough: economists and businesses demand new measure of inclusive growth’, The Telegraph, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/03/07/gdp-not- enough-economists-businesses-demand-new-measure-inclusive/)
(f) Evaluate the use of interest rate changes as a means of controlling UK inflation. (20)
June 2019 · AS Paper 2 · Q6(g) 20 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=6, AO4=6 20-mark essay Either/or Hard macroeconomic objectives
Data and extracts for question 6UK inflation and economic growth Figure 1: UK inflation rate as measured by annual percentage changes in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), January 2014 to January 2018 3.5 3.0 % 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 (Source: www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Pages/inflationreport/2017/aug.aspx) Figure 2: Selected changes to the CPI basket of goods and services, 2017 IN OUT Non-dairy milk Apple cider Jigsaw puzzles Menthol cigarettes Child scooters Child swings Cycling helmets Basic mobile phones (Source: www.theguardian.com/business/2017/mar/14/uk-inflation- ons-basket-goods-gin-cycling-helmets) Figure 3: UK exports, £ billions per month, January 2014 to January 2018 52 50 £ billions 48 46 44 42 40 0 (Source: Trading Economics, ONS - https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/exports) Figure 4: Annual percentage change in real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), 2014-2017 2014 2015 2016 2017 United Kingdom 3.1 2.2 1.8 2.0 Developing countries (average) 4.7 4.2 4.1 4.5 (Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook 2017) Extract A Rising inflation After January 2017, the inflation rate, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), in the UK has exceeded the Bank of England’s 2% target. Sharp increases in food prices as a result of the fall in the exchange rate of the pound have contributed to rising inflation. Between January and September 2017, food prices have increased by 3.5 percentage 5 points. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has identified that the rapid increase in food prices affected people on low fixed incomes the most. It leaves them with very little money to spend on relatively more expensive items. Moreover, the Bank of England has observed a rise in the size of personal debt relative to income. In order to maintain their standard of 10 living, many consumers on low fixed incomes are using their credit cards and taking out short-term loans to fund their spending. Inflation rose to over 3% at the end of 2017 leading to the Monetary Policy Committee increasing the base rate of interest by 0.25 percentage points to 0.5% in November 2017. Wage growth has been lagging behind price rises and this is expected to continue. 15 Basic wage increases are expected to be only around 1%. This has heaped considerable pressure on households. The ONS has updated the shopping basket that is used in the measurement of UK inflation, to reflect the lifestyle of households in the country. Technological advancements, changes in consumer tastes and a move towards health, fitness and 20 gluten-free products have made it essential to revise the 2017 basket. (Source: adapted from ‘UK inflation tipped to rise again with wages forecast to stagnate’, The Guardian, https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/aug/13/ uk-inflation-tipped-to-rise-again-with-wages-forecast-to-stagnate#img-1) Extract B Economic growth and living standards Economic growth is expected to accelerate again as foreign demand for UK exports increases due to the global economic recovery. According to some economists, consumer spending is no longer the engine of growth for the UK. The increase in exports, which is largely due to the fall in the exchange rate of the pound, is expected to be the most 5 significant driver of the UK’s economic growth. Some economists have proposed that the quality of economic growth needs to be measured and not just the quantity. This will allow governments to understand how GDP growth affects the living standards of its citizens. They want governments to publish data on the quality of life alongside GDP data as economic growth varies across the country 10 with jobs and wages distributed unevenly. Economic growth figures also hide differences that are not considered in GDP calculations. In 2017, it was estimated that the relative size of the informal economy of developing countries was nearly five times greater than that of the UK. (Source: adapted from ‘Growth to accelerate as UK economy bounces back’, The Telegraph, http://www.telegraph.co.uk /business/2017/08/01/ growth-accelerate-uk-economy-bounces-back/; ‘GDP is not enough: economists and businesses demand new measure of inclusive growth’, The Telegraph, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/03/07/gdp-not- enough-economists-businesses-demand-new-measure-inclusive/)
(g) Evaluate the potential conflicts between the objective of economic growth and two other UK macroeconomic objectives. (20)
June 2019 · Paper 1 · Q7 25 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=8, AO4=9 25-mark essay Either/or labour market
7 In July 2017 it was announced that only a third of the BBC’s 96 top earning presenters were women and that its seven highest-paid presenters were all men. According to the High Pay Centre, in 2018, UK chief executives can earn 120 times more than the average full-time worker earning £28 758. With reference to an industry of your choice, evaluate why wage differences exist within the UK labour market.
June 2019 · Paper 1 · Q8 25 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=8, AO4=9 25-mark essay Either/or oligopoly
8 In October 2017 Scania, the Volkswagen-owned truck maker, was fined €880 million (£771 million) by the European Commission for colluding with five other truck manufacturers over a 14-year period. The firms had agreed to coordinate prices after experiencing additional costs of meeting emission regulations. With reference to an industry of your choice, evaluate why some firms engage in collusive behaviour.
June 2019 · Paper 2 · Q7 25 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=8, AO4=9 25-mark essay Either/or trading blocs and protectionismglobalisation and trade
7 Three of Africa’s main trading blocs have agreed to form the Tripartite Free Trade Agreement (TFTA). This will create one of the world’s largest free trade areas, stretching across 26 countries with a combined GDP of around £1 trillion. (Source: https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-africa-trade/mega-african-trade-bloc- paves-way-for-continental-commerce-idUKKBN0OR28M20150611) Evaluate the effects of the growth of trading blocs such as the TFTA on global trading patterns.
June 2019 · Paper 2 · Q8 25 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=8, AO4=9 25-mark essay Either/or public finances and taxation
8 Japan’s budget deficit for 2017/18 is expected to be 4.6% of GDP. Its national debt is forecast to increase to above 250% of GDP by 2019. Evaluate the impact of a large fiscal deficit and national debt on a country’s economy.
June 2019 · Paper 3 · Q1(d) 25 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=8, AO4=9 25-mark essay Either/or government intervention in marketsfiscal and monetary policy
Data and extracts for question 1Markets for food and drinks high in fat, salt or sugar (HFSS) Figure 1: UK market share of potato crisps, 2017 Market share Market share Price Firm Brand Size of firm of product (£) Walkers All Walkers 55.3% of which: 35 g 28.1% 0.45 Regular Standard Regular Max 50 g 7.4% 0.63 Sensations 40 g 2.0% 0.59 Doritos 40 g 4.7% 0.45 Other 13.1% KP KP 50 g 22.7% 0.52 Tayto Golden Wonder 4.2% <40g 3.1% 0.38 40g+ 1.1% 0.72 Other Other 17.8% (Source: adapted from https://academic.oup.com/restud/article/3108825/ The-Effects-of-Banning-Advertising-in-Junk-Food 6 April 2017) Extract A The effects of a total ban on advertising of HFSS foods Food and drinks which are high in fat, salt or sugar (HFSS) tend to be sold in highly concentrated markets. Tough new rules banning advertisements for HFSS products, such as those for confectionery, fizzy drinks and potato crisps, come into effect in July 2017 as a means to reduce consumption. The rules apply to media targeted at under-16s and will 5 mean a major reduction in the number of advertisements children see for HFSS products in posters near schools, in films targeted at children, on catch-up television and in social media if it is directed at children. There are three main factors that will determine the effectiveness of the intervention: first, whether advertising acts to expand the market share or steal rivals’ market share. 10 Secondly, how firms in the market adapt their behaviour in response to the ban. Thirdly, what substitute products do consumers turn to if they opted out of the targeted market. Results from a recent survey in the UK suggest that the total quantity of crisps sold would fall by around 15% in the presence of an advertising ban, or by 10% if firms respond with price cuts, since the ban acts to make the market more competitive and firms respond to 15 the ban by, on average, lowering their prices. The survey showed that following a ban, consumers are more likely to switch to another junk food than to a healthy food, which (in addition to the pricing response of firms) acts to partially offset any health gains from the policy. (Source: adapted from The Effects of Banning Advertising in Junk Food Markets, Dubois, Pierre; Griffith, Rachel, Review of Economic Studies Copyright © 2017, Oxford University Press https://academic.oup.com/ restud/article/3108825/The-Effects-of-Banning-Advertising-in-Junk-Food 6 April 2017 and https://www.asa.org.uk/news/tougher-new-food-and- drink-rules-come-into-effect-in-children-s-media.html 30 June 2017) Extract B Taxing HFSS foods and subsidising healthy eating widens inequality Since low-income groups spend a higher proportion of their income on food and tend to eat less healthily, they are the main targets of taxes on products that are high in fat, salt or sugar (HFSS). Subsidies on healthy food are seen as an alternative policy approach to encourage healthy eating. While data on the impact of such policies are scarce, a recent 5 study on the distributional impacts of HFSS taxes and healthy food subsidies found that these actually widened health and fiscal inequalities. The policies tend to be regressive and favour higher-income consumers. Taxes on unhealthy food increase prices which have a greater impact on low income groups rather than higher income groups. Lower income groups prefer to buy HFSS food. 10 Subsidies encouraged all income groups to buy more fruit and vegetables. However, those on higher incomes proved more responsive and the average share of budget spent on healthy food actually increased for the higher income groups who were more likely to buy the subsidised healthy food and then spend the savings they had enjoyed on yet more healthy food. The diets of the higher income groups before the subsidy tended 15 to be healthier. The choices of the higher income groups are more responsive to price changes. By contrast, lower income groups, if they responded to lower prices, often used the money saved to buy unhealthy items or something else entirely. The long-term benefits of a healthier diet are harder to grasp for consumers when information gaps exist. Often the immediate boost of a tasty treat is more appealing. Taxes and subsidies 20 do not change that. Other strategies are needed to promote healthy eating, especially education. (Source: adapted from Economist 5 October 2017 https://www.economist. com/news/finance-and-economics/21730033-study-suggests- lower-income-families-end-up-paying-more-their-food-taxing-fat and https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3031005 The Economic Journal September 2017 Vol 127 Issue 604) Extract C Tax on fatty foods in Denmark is an economic disaster Denmark introduced a specific tax on saturated fat in October 2011. Recognised as a world-leading public health policy, it was abandoned just 15 months later having been both an economic and political disaster. Indirect taxes of this sort are invariably regressive, disproportionately affecting the 5 elderly and the poor. The specific tax led to prices rising on average 15% for highest-fat products, yielding a total decrease of 5% in the intake of saturated fat from products such as minced beef and cream. 80% of Danish consumers did not change their shopping habits at all. The behavioural change was economically damaging as consumers switched to cheaper brands and crossed the border to Sweden and Germany to do their shopping. 10 Danish tax revenue fell as a result. (Source: adapted from https://iea.org.uk/in-the-media/press-release/ evidence-shows-a-fat-tax-would-hit-poorest-the-hardest 25 May 2013 and https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/public-health-nutrition/article/ effects-of-the-danish-saturated-fat-tax-on-the-demand-for-meat-and-dairy- products/984CF03634C819D50E66C7B5DC5209DA/core-reader)
(d) Evaluate the microeconomic and macroeconomic effects of increased government spending on education to promote healthy eating in the UK. (25)
June 2019 · Paper 3 · Q1(e) 25 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=8, AO4=9 25-mark essay Either/or indirect taxes and subsidiesgovernment intervention in marketspublic finances and taxation
Data and extracts for question 1Markets for food and drinks high in fat, salt or sugar (HFSS) Figure 1: UK market share of potato crisps, 2017 Market share Market share Price Firm Brand Size of firm of product (£) Walkers All Walkers 55.3% of which: 35 g 28.1% 0.45 Regular Standard Regular Max 50 g 7.4% 0.63 Sensations 40 g 2.0% 0.59 Doritos 40 g 4.7% 0.45 Other 13.1% KP KP 50 g 22.7% 0.52 Tayto Golden Wonder 4.2% <40g 3.1% 0.38 40g+ 1.1% 0.72 Other Other 17.8% (Source: adapted from https://academic.oup.com/restud/article/3108825/ The-Effects-of-Banning-Advertising-in-Junk-Food 6 April 2017) Extract A The effects of a total ban on advertising of HFSS foods Food and drinks which are high in fat, salt or sugar (HFSS) tend to be sold in highly concentrated markets. Tough new rules banning advertisements for HFSS products, such as those for confectionery, fizzy drinks and potato crisps, come into effect in July 2017 as a means to reduce consumption. The rules apply to media targeted at under-16s and will 5 mean a major reduction in the number of advertisements children see for HFSS products in posters near schools, in films targeted at children, on catch-up television and in social media if it is directed at children. There are three main factors that will determine the effectiveness of the intervention: first, whether advertising acts to expand the market share or steal rivals’ market share. 10 Secondly, how firms in the market adapt their behaviour in response to the ban. Thirdly, what substitute products do consumers turn to if they opted out of the targeted market. Results from a recent survey in the UK suggest that the total quantity of crisps sold would fall by around 15% in the presence of an advertising ban, or by 10% if firms respond with price cuts, since the ban acts to make the market more competitive and firms respond to 15 the ban by, on average, lowering their prices. The survey showed that following a ban, consumers are more likely to switch to another junk food than to a healthy food, which (in addition to the pricing response of firms) acts to partially offset any health gains from the policy. (Source: adapted from The Effects of Banning Advertising in Junk Food Markets, Dubois, Pierre; Griffith, Rachel, Review of Economic Studies Copyright © 2017, Oxford University Press https://academic.oup.com/ restud/article/3108825/The-Effects-of-Banning-Advertising-in-Junk-Food 6 April 2017 and https://www.asa.org.uk/news/tougher-new-food-and- drink-rules-come-into-effect-in-children-s-media.html 30 June 2017) Extract B Taxing HFSS foods and subsidising healthy eating widens inequality Since low-income groups spend a higher proportion of their income on food and tend to eat less healthily, they are the main targets of taxes on products that are high in fat, salt or sugar (HFSS). Subsidies on healthy food are seen as an alternative policy approach to encourage healthy eating. While data on the impact of such policies are scarce, a recent 5 study on the distributional impacts of HFSS taxes and healthy food subsidies found that these actually widened health and fiscal inequalities. The policies tend to be regressive and favour higher-income consumers. Taxes on unhealthy food increase prices which have a greater impact on low income groups rather than higher income groups. Lower income groups prefer to buy HFSS food. 10 Subsidies encouraged all income groups to buy more fruit and vegetables. However, those on higher incomes proved more responsive and the average share of budget spent on healthy food actually increased for the higher income groups who were more likely to buy the subsidised healthy food and then spend the savings they had enjoyed on yet more healthy food. The diets of the higher income groups before the subsidy tended 15 to be healthier. The choices of the higher income groups are more responsive to price changes. By contrast, lower income groups, if they responded to lower prices, often used the money saved to buy unhealthy items or something else entirely. The long-term benefits of a healthier diet are harder to grasp for consumers when information gaps exist. Often the immediate boost of a tasty treat is more appealing. Taxes and subsidies 20 do not change that. Other strategies are needed to promote healthy eating, especially education. (Source: adapted from Economist 5 October 2017 https://www.economist. com/news/finance-and-economics/21730033-study-suggests- lower-income-families-end-up-paying-more-their-food-taxing-fat and https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3031005 The Economic Journal September 2017 Vol 127 Issue 604) Extract C Tax on fatty foods in Denmark is an economic disaster Denmark introduced a specific tax on saturated fat in October 2011. Recognised as a world-leading public health policy, it was abandoned just 15 months later having been both an economic and political disaster. Indirect taxes of this sort are invariably regressive, disproportionately affecting the 5 elderly and the poor. The specific tax led to prices rising on average 15% for highest-fat products, yielding a total decrease of 5% in the intake of saturated fat from products such as minced beef and cream. 80% of Danish consumers did not change their shopping habits at all. The behavioural change was economically damaging as consumers switched to cheaper brands and crossed the border to Sweden and Germany to do their shopping. 10 Danish tax revenue fell as a result. (Source: adapted from https://iea.org.uk/in-the-media/press-release/ evidence-shows-a-fat-tax-would-hit-poorest-the-hardest 25 May 2013 and https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/public-health-nutrition/article/ effects-of-the-danish-saturated-fat-tax-on-the-demand-for-meat-and-dairy- products/984CF03634C819D50E66C7B5DC5209DA/core-reader)
(e) Evaluate the likely microeconomic and macroeconomic effects of imposing a tax on HFSS foods. (25)
June 2019 · Paper 3 · Q2(d) 25 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=8, AO4=9 25-mark essay Either/or emerging and developing economies
Data and extracts for question 2Mozambique Figure 2: Interest rates (bank rate of the central bank) and inflation rates of selected African countries, 2017 Selected country Central bank Inflation rate rate of interest (CPI measure) Congo (D.R.) 14% 13.8% Ghana 21% 9.1% Kenya 10% 10.1% Malawi 18% 21.4% Mozambique 21.75% 18.0% Nigeria 14% 21.1% (Source: official government websites, and other news sources, July 2017) Extract D Rising debt levels in Africa Increases in national debt have brought several African governments towards a debt-servicing crisis when the repayment of debt and interest become unsustainable. Between 2010 and 2015, many sub-Saharan countries raised debt totalling more than £20 billion. Back then, with commodity prices soaring and foreign loans available at very 5 low interest rates, everyone agreed that borrowing was the way to grow an economy with expansionary fiscal policy. Since 2015, some African governments – beneficiaries of big debt write-offs at the start of the century – have taken to private debt markets too eagerly, leaving them with heavy repayment schedules at a time of lower commodity prices. 10 Until recently, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has played down African debt concerns, pointing to better management of public resources and greater transparency. But it was shaken by Mozambique’s default on more than £2 billion of secret loans used to purchase a non-existent tuna-fishing fleet, raising fears of hidden debt in other African countries with similar levels of corruption. The median level of debt in sub-Saharan Africa 15 had risen sharply from 34% of gross domestic product in 2013 to 48% in 2017. Although that is low by international standards, analysts said debt burdens were heavier than they appeared because of most African countries’ low tax base. “The real thing to look for is debt to revenue, or debt-service as a percentage of government spending,” said John Ashbourne, Africa Economist at Capital Economics. In several countries, he said, debt 20 payments were above 20% of government revenue, with an opportunity cost in terms of government spending. (Source: adapted from African debt worries intensify as levels near tipping point by David Pilling © Financial Times 2017 https://www.ft.com/ content/939808dc-b4d8-11e7-a398-73d59db9e399) Extract E Mozambique’s economic stability is being put to the test The economy of Mozambique, which gained independence from Portugal in 1975, has continued to under-perform. Large-scale emigration, especially of skilled workers, economic dependence on South Africa, a severe drought, a prolonged civil war and political tensions have hindered the country’s development. More than half of 5 Mozambique’s 26 million people continue to live below the poverty line. GDP growth declined to 3.6% in 2016 due to fiscal tightening and a slowdown in foreign direct investment. A weak manufacturing sector employs just 3.2% of the population, and is made up of small enterprises (90%), many of which were set up with the aid of microfinance. Traditional export earnings dropped due to depressed global demand. 10 In addition a wide-scale drought seriously affected agricultural production. Foreign currency inflows have weakened – as large-scale gas projects were put on hold, and 14 external lenders suspended direct budget support, as a lesson to be learned from the tuna-fleet scandal. The state budget deficit was 10.7% of GDP in 2017. High interest rates have reduced aggregate demand, and import costs added to inflation following further 15 depreciation of Mozambique’s currency, the metical, to a new low of 100 meticals to £1. Mozambique needs urgently to improve its investment environment and confidence in its institutions. The World Economic Forum’s global competitiveness ranking placed Mozambique 136 out of 137 countries. Longer term, Mozambique’s economic prospects are promising. There has been 20 progress in talks on restoring international confidence in the government’s running of the economy, leading to a lasting and sustainable agreement between rival political groups. The development of gas fields off Mozambique’s coast discovered in 2011 is set to transform the economy, coming into production in the 2020s. A rise in coal and electricity exports should help growth to increase. But in the short term, it remains 25 uncertain whether Mozambique can deliver badly needed economic stability. (Source: adapted from http://www.africaneconomicoutlook.org/en/country-notes/ mozambiqua and https://www.chathamhouse.org/expert/comment/ mozambique-s-stability-being-put-test 6 October 2017 Dr Alex Vines OBE) Extract F Microfinance in Mozambique Microfinance in Mozambique started in the late 1980s through projects initiated by international relief organisations. The sector has expanded to include many private banks and non-government organisations (NGOs), see Figure 3. This has resulted in wider use (over 100 000 borrowers) and many new business start-ups which could not have gained 5 finance from any other source. Evidence suggests that there is unfulfilled demand for microfinance and a large potential for expansion. (Source: adapted from http://www.mftransparency.org/microfinance-pricing/mozambique/) Figure 3: The cost of microfinance loans in Mozambique, 2015 Each symbol represents loans 200% to a number of borrowers (up to 2 000) by one institution. Institution Type Private banks 150% NGO 100% Mean annual percentage rate of interest 50% 0% 40 000 0 20 000 60 000 Loan size (meticals) (Source: http://www.mftransparency.org/microfinance-pricing/mozambique/)
(d) Evaluate the microeconomic and macroeconomic factors, apart from access to credit and banking, influencing growth and development in Mozambique. (25)
June 2019 · Paper 3 · Q2(e) 25 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=8, AO4=9 25-mark essay Either/or Hard inflation
Data and extracts for question 2Mozambique Figure 2: Interest rates (bank rate of the central bank) and inflation rates of selected African countries, 2017 Selected country Central bank Inflation rate rate of interest (CPI measure) Congo (D.R.) 14% 13.8% Ghana 21% 9.1% Kenya 10% 10.1% Malawi 18% 21.4% Mozambique 21.75% 18.0% Nigeria 14% 21.1% (Source: official government websites, and other news sources, July 2017) Extract D Rising debt levels in Africa Increases in national debt have brought several African governments towards a debt-servicing crisis when the repayment of debt and interest become unsustainable. Between 2010 and 2015, many sub-Saharan countries raised debt totalling more than £20 billion. Back then, with commodity prices soaring and foreign loans available at very 5 low interest rates, everyone agreed that borrowing was the way to grow an economy with expansionary fiscal policy. Since 2015, some African governments – beneficiaries of big debt write-offs at the start of the century – have taken to private debt markets too eagerly, leaving them with heavy repayment schedules at a time of lower commodity prices. 10 Until recently, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has played down African debt concerns, pointing to better management of public resources and greater transparency. But it was shaken by Mozambique’s default on more than £2 billion of secret loans used to purchase a non-existent tuna-fishing fleet, raising fears of hidden debt in other African countries with similar levels of corruption. The median level of debt in sub-Saharan Africa 15 had risen sharply from 34% of gross domestic product in 2013 to 48% in 2017. Although that is low by international standards, analysts said debt burdens were heavier than they appeared because of most African countries’ low tax base. “The real thing to look for is debt to revenue, or debt-service as a percentage of government spending,” said John Ashbourne, Africa Economist at Capital Economics. In several countries, he said, debt 20 payments were above 20% of government revenue, with an opportunity cost in terms of government spending. (Source: adapted from African debt worries intensify as levels near tipping point by David Pilling © Financial Times 2017 https://www.ft.com/ content/939808dc-b4d8-11e7-a398-73d59db9e399) Extract E Mozambique’s economic stability is being put to the test The economy of Mozambique, which gained independence from Portugal in 1975, has continued to under-perform. Large-scale emigration, especially of skilled workers, economic dependence on South Africa, a severe drought, a prolonged civil war and political tensions have hindered the country’s development. More than half of 5 Mozambique’s 26 million people continue to live below the poverty line. GDP growth declined to 3.6% in 2016 due to fiscal tightening and a slowdown in foreign direct investment. A weak manufacturing sector employs just 3.2% of the population, and is made up of small enterprises (90%), many of which were set up with the aid of microfinance. Traditional export earnings dropped due to depressed global demand. 10 In addition a wide-scale drought seriously affected agricultural production. Foreign currency inflows have weakened – as large-scale gas projects were put on hold, and 14 external lenders suspended direct budget support, as a lesson to be learned from the tuna-fleet scandal. The state budget deficit was 10.7% of GDP in 2017. High interest rates have reduced aggregate demand, and import costs added to inflation following further 15 depreciation of Mozambique’s currency, the metical, to a new low of 100 meticals to £1. Mozambique needs urgently to improve its investment environment and confidence in its institutions. The World Economic Forum’s global competitiveness ranking placed Mozambique 136 out of 137 countries. Longer term, Mozambique’s economic prospects are promising. There has been 20 progress in talks on restoring international confidence in the government’s running of the economy, leading to a lasting and sustainable agreement between rival political groups. The development of gas fields off Mozambique’s coast discovered in 2011 is set to transform the economy, coming into production in the 2020s. A rise in coal and electricity exports should help growth to increase. But in the short term, it remains 25 uncertain whether Mozambique can deliver badly needed economic stability. (Source: adapted from http://www.africaneconomicoutlook.org/en/country-notes/ mozambiqua and https://www.chathamhouse.org/expert/comment/ mozambique-s-stability-being-put-test 6 October 2017 Dr Alex Vines OBE) Extract F Microfinance in Mozambique Microfinance in Mozambique started in the late 1980s through projects initiated by international relief organisations. The sector has expanded to include many private banks and non-government organisations (NGOs), see Figure 3. This has resulted in wider use (over 100 000 borrowers) and many new business start-ups which could not have gained 5 finance from any other source. Evidence suggests that there is unfulfilled demand for microfinance and a large potential for expansion. (Source: adapted from http://www.mftransparency.org/microfinance-pricing/mozambique/) Figure 3: The cost of microfinance loans in Mozambique, 2015 Each symbol represents loans 200% to a number of borrowers (up to 2 000) by one institution. Institution Type Private banks 150% NGO 100% Mean annual percentage rate of interest 50% 0% 40 000 0 20 000 60 000 Loan size (meticals) (Source: http://www.mftransparency.org/microfinance-pricing/mozambique/)
(e) Evaluate the likely microeconomic and macroeconomic effects of relatively high inflation rates in many African countries. (25)
June 2018 · AS Paper 1 · Q6(f) 20 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=6, AO4=6 20-mark essay Either/or Hard externalities
Data and extracts for question 6Energy markets Figure 1: Annual surplus or shortage of uranium, measured in millions of kilograms 25 Kg millions 15 5 0 -5 -15 -25 Figures from 2016 are forecast (Source: adapted from http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/11/20/uranium- the-unloved-metal-whose-price-is-poised-to-go-radioactiv/) Extract A Uranium: the unloved metal Uranium is a fuel source for nuclear energy production. The price of uranium has fallen to a 13-year low. Uranium is a relatively common metal but locating it in the right concentrations can be difficult. Australia has the biggest known resource of uranium, followed by Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan’s production has increased significantly since 2007, 5 accounting for a large proportion of the surplus of this metal. Given the large stockpiles of uranium some firms have ceased production. The biggest impact on the uranium market has been the devastating accident at the nuclear power station in Fukushima, Japan, in 2011. The accident caused a leak of radiation. The accident reduced confidence in the entire nuclear industry, as high doses 10 of radiation leaks increase the risk of cancer. In addition the high cost of safely storing radioactive waste has delayed the building of new nuclear power stations. Japan initially closed all of its 50 nuclear power stations which reduced the demand for uranium. But it has since concluded that nuclear power must be part of its mix of energy suppliers. Despite this setback in 2016 work started on a new uranium mine in Spain to meet 15 the expected rise in demand for the metal. Uranium is a controlled material, so mining companies have to comply with many regulations before opening a new mine. When it opens in 2018, this will be the only uranium mine in Europe, producing 2.2 million kilos a year. It has been in development for more than a decade. Most developed countries, with the notable exception of Germany, have concluded that 20 nuclear power is an essential part of their energy supply. The US and UK are committed to building new nuclear power stations, the latter providing a £30 billion subsidy to build a new nuclear plant at Hinkley Point. China is also building a further 60 nuclear power stations. Supporters of nuclear power say it provides a reliable source of energy at a time when 25 the world’s population is increasing, unlike solar power and wind power which both vary with the weather. In addition they argue that no country can significantly reduce carbon emissions, which are causing climate change, without nuclear. France and the UK have committed themselves to shut down all coal-fired power stations by 2025. So demand for uranium over the next two decades seems guaranteed. 30 (Source: adapted from Uranium: the unloved metal whose price is poised to go radioactive, Jon Yeomans, The Telegraph, 20 November 2016 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/11/20/uranium-the- unloved-metal-whose-price-is-poised-to-go-radioactiv/) Extract B Irrational consumers pay the price The UK Government has announced that it might introduce maximum price controls on energy used by households. The UK’s largest energy suppliers are braced for what could be the industry’s most significant government intervention following a decade of rising energy bills and low 5 numbers of consumers switching between energy providers. The Prime Minister promised to intervene because the energy market is “manifestly not working” for consumers. Energy prices have risen by 158% in the last 15 years, and four million households, especially those on low incomes, are still on the most expensive energy rates. 10 Some energy analysts have warned the Government against taking a highly interventionist approach that could undermine the energy market and leave customers paying higher prices in the future. (Source: adapted from http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/03/22/ governments-pledge-cut-energy-prices-risks-leaving-consumers/) Extract C The economics of climate change Rising carbon dioxide emissions result from the increase in the use of coal, gas and oil in transport and for energy production. In addition, deforestation, food production and processing methods make the problem worse. These carbon emissions are causing a rise in global average temperatures, known as climate change. Climate change could cause 5 hundreds of millions of people to suffer hunger, water shortages and coastal flooding. Three elements of policy are required for an effective global response to reduce carbon emissions. The first is the pricing of carbon, implemented through tax, trading pollution permits or regulation. The second policy is to support innovation and the deployment of low-carbon technologies. And the third is action to remove barriers to energy efficiency, 10 and to inform, educate and persuade individuals about what they can do to respond to climate change. (Source: adapted from www.sternreview.org.uk/)
(f) Using the concept of external costs, evaluate whether nuclear power is under-provided or over-provided in the energy market. Use an appropriate diagram in your answer. (20)
June 2018 · AS Paper 1 · Q6(g) 20 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=6, AO4=6 20-mark essay Either/or government intervention in markets
Data and extracts for question 6Energy markets Figure 1: Annual surplus or shortage of uranium, measured in millions of kilograms 25 Kg millions 15 5 0 -5 -15 -25 Figures from 2016 are forecast (Source: adapted from http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/11/20/uranium- the-unloved-metal-whose-price-is-poised-to-go-radioactiv/) Extract A Uranium: the unloved metal Uranium is a fuel source for nuclear energy production. The price of uranium has fallen to a 13-year low. Uranium is a relatively common metal but locating it in the right concentrations can be difficult. Australia has the biggest known resource of uranium, followed by Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan’s production has increased significantly since 2007, 5 accounting for a large proportion of the surplus of this metal. Given the large stockpiles of uranium some firms have ceased production. The biggest impact on the uranium market has been the devastating accident at the nuclear power station in Fukushima, Japan, in 2011. The accident caused a leak of radiation. The accident reduced confidence in the entire nuclear industry, as high doses 10 of radiation leaks increase the risk of cancer. In addition the high cost of safely storing radioactive waste has delayed the building of new nuclear power stations. Japan initially closed all of its 50 nuclear power stations which reduced the demand for uranium. But it has since concluded that nuclear power must be part of its mix of energy suppliers. Despite this setback in 2016 work started on a new uranium mine in Spain to meet 15 the expected rise in demand for the metal. Uranium is a controlled material, so mining companies have to comply with many regulations before opening a new mine. When it opens in 2018, this will be the only uranium mine in Europe, producing 2.2 million kilos a year. It has been in development for more than a decade. Most developed countries, with the notable exception of Germany, have concluded that 20 nuclear power is an essential part of their energy supply. The US and UK are committed to building new nuclear power stations, the latter providing a £30 billion subsidy to build a new nuclear plant at Hinkley Point. China is also building a further 60 nuclear power stations. Supporters of nuclear power say it provides a reliable source of energy at a time when 25 the world’s population is increasing, unlike solar power and wind power which both vary with the weather. In addition they argue that no country can significantly reduce carbon emissions, which are causing climate change, without nuclear. France and the UK have committed themselves to shut down all coal-fired power stations by 2025. So demand for uranium over the next two decades seems guaranteed. 30 (Source: adapted from Uranium: the unloved metal whose price is poised to go radioactive, Jon Yeomans, The Telegraph, 20 November 2016 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/11/20/uranium-the- unloved-metal-whose-price-is-poised-to-go-radioactiv/) Extract B Irrational consumers pay the price The UK Government has announced that it might introduce maximum price controls on energy used by households. The UK’s largest energy suppliers are braced for what could be the industry’s most significant government intervention following a decade of rising energy bills and low 5 numbers of consumers switching between energy providers. The Prime Minister promised to intervene because the energy market is “manifestly not working” for consumers. Energy prices have risen by 158% in the last 15 years, and four million households, especially those on low incomes, are still on the most expensive energy rates. 10 Some energy analysts have warned the Government against taking a highly interventionist approach that could undermine the energy market and leave customers paying higher prices in the future. (Source: adapted from http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/03/22/ governments-pledge-cut-energy-prices-risks-leaving-consumers/) Extract C The economics of climate change Rising carbon dioxide emissions result from the increase in the use of coal, gas and oil in transport and for energy production. In addition, deforestation, food production and processing methods make the problem worse. These carbon emissions are causing a rise in global average temperatures, known as climate change. Climate change could cause 5 hundreds of millions of people to suffer hunger, water shortages and coastal flooding. Three elements of policy are required for an effective global response to reduce carbon emissions. The first is the pricing of carbon, implemented through tax, trading pollution permits or regulation. The second policy is to support innovation and the deployment of low-carbon technologies. And the third is action to remove barriers to energy efficiency, 10 and to inform, educate and persuade individuals about what they can do to respond to climate change. (Source: adapted from www.sternreview.org.uk/)
(g) Evaluate ways in which government intervention could be used to reduce carbon emissions. Use at least one appropriate diagram in your answer. (20)
June 2018 · AS Paper 2 · Q6(f) 20 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=6, AO4=6 20-mark essay Either/or supply side policiesfiscal and monetary policy
Data and extracts for question 6The UK economy Figure 1: Unemployment – International Labour Organisation (ILO) and the claimant count, millions, 2010-2016 3 2.5 2 Millions 1.5 1 0.5 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 ILO Claimant count (Source: ONS Datasets, https://www.ons.gov.uk/) Figure 2: Household savings*, 2010-2015 12 % 10 8 6 4 2 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2010 * Savings as a percentage of household disposable income (Source: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/personal-savings) Figure 3: UK average house prices, 2005–2016 220 200 180 160 140 0 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 (Source: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/house-prices/ the-state-of-the-uk-housing-market-in-five-charts/) Extract A Soaring house prices House prices are still rising rapidly. The average UK house price was £214 000 in June 2016, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). This is £24 000 more than it was at its peak in September 2007, just before the economic downturn. First-time buyers have experienced the largest rise in house prices. 5 Even the loss of consumer confidence over Britain’s vote to leave the EU did not stop house prices from rising – annual growth increased from 5.2% in July 2016 to 5.6% in August 2016. House price growth was the strongest in London, with annual average prices rising by 9.6%. However, in Wales average house prices actually fell by 0.5% during the same period. In its first post-Brexit referendum forecast, estate agency Countrywide 10 said that house prices will fall by 1% across the UK in 2017, before rising by 2% in 2018. Real household income in the UK fell by 10.4% in the years following the financial crisis. This increased the difference between real income and house prices. In 1997, a house cost little more than twice the average income. By early 2015, the average price of a house was five times the average annual income. 15 The rate of home ownership for 25 to 34-year-olds has fallen to 35.8% over the last twenty-five years as houses became less affordable. First-time buyers have to wait longer to save up for a house deposit. Conversely, home ownership has risen to 78.6% among those aged 65 to 74. (Source: adapted from ‘The state of the UK housing market in five charts’, The Telegraph, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/house-prices/ the-state-of-the-uk-housing-market-in-five-charts/; ‘UK house price growth slows as demand cools after Brexit vote’, The Guardian, https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/sep/30/uk-house- price-growth-slows-demand-cools-brexit-vote-nationwide) Extract B UK migration trends in the year ending June 2016 Inward migration levels are among the highest ever recorded with an estimated 650 000 people moving to the UK. This is an increase of around 11 000 from the previous year. Employment remains the most common reason for long-term migration (312 000) to the UK, with around 182 000 of these coming with a definite job and 130 000 looking for 5 work. Long-term migration to the UK for study was estimated to be 163 000. In addition, 80 000 long-term migrants arrived in the UK to accompany their families. There were 41 280 refugees applying for asylum, including dependants, of which 10 547 people were granted asylum. Asylum applicants cannot usually accept offers of employment while 10 their case is being processed. (Source: adapted from ‘Migration Statistics Quarterly Report: December 2016’, ONS, https:// www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/ internationalmigration/bulletins/migrationstatisticsquarterlyreport/dec2016)
(f) Evaluate government policies, apart from migration policies, that could be used to increase the employment rate in the UK. (20)
June 2018 · AS Paper 2 · Q6(g) 20 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=6, AO4=6 20-mark essay Either/or Hard inflationmacroeconomic objectives
Data and extracts for question 6The UK economy Figure 1: Unemployment – International Labour Organisation (ILO) and the claimant count, millions, 2010-2016 3 2.5 2 Millions 1.5 1 0.5 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 ILO Claimant count (Source: ONS Datasets, https://www.ons.gov.uk/) Figure 2: Household savings*, 2010-2015 12 % 10 8 6 4 2 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2010 * Savings as a percentage of household disposable income (Source: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/personal-savings) Figure 3: UK average house prices, 2005–2016 220 200 180 160 140 0 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 (Source: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/house-prices/ the-state-of-the-uk-housing-market-in-five-charts/) Extract A Soaring house prices House prices are still rising rapidly. The average UK house price was £214 000 in June 2016, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). This is £24 000 more than it was at its peak in September 2007, just before the economic downturn. First-time buyers have experienced the largest rise in house prices. 5 Even the loss of consumer confidence over Britain’s vote to leave the EU did not stop house prices from rising – annual growth increased from 5.2% in July 2016 to 5.6% in August 2016. House price growth was the strongest in London, with annual average prices rising by 9.6%. However, in Wales average house prices actually fell by 0.5% during the same period. In its first post-Brexit referendum forecast, estate agency Countrywide 10 said that house prices will fall by 1% across the UK in 2017, before rising by 2% in 2018. Real household income in the UK fell by 10.4% in the years following the financial crisis. This increased the difference between real income and house prices. In 1997, a house cost little more than twice the average income. By early 2015, the average price of a house was five times the average annual income. 15 The rate of home ownership for 25 to 34-year-olds has fallen to 35.8% over the last twenty-five years as houses became less affordable. First-time buyers have to wait longer to save up for a house deposit. Conversely, home ownership has risen to 78.6% among those aged 65 to 74. (Source: adapted from ‘The state of the UK housing market in five charts’, The Telegraph, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/house-prices/ the-state-of-the-uk-housing-market-in-five-charts/; ‘UK house price growth slows as demand cools after Brexit vote’, The Guardian, https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/sep/30/uk-house- price-growth-slows-demand-cools-brexit-vote-nationwide) Extract B UK migration trends in the year ending June 2016 Inward migration levels are among the highest ever recorded with an estimated 650 000 people moving to the UK. This is an increase of around 11 000 from the previous year. Employment remains the most common reason for long-term migration (312 000) to the UK, with around 182 000 of these coming with a definite job and 130 000 looking for 5 work. Long-term migration to the UK for study was estimated to be 163 000. In addition, 80 000 long-term migrants arrived in the UK to accompany their families. There were 41 280 refugees applying for asylum, including dependants, of which 10 547 people were granted asylum. Asylum applicants cannot usually accept offers of employment while 10 their case is being processed. (Source: adapted from ‘Migration Statistics Quarterly Report: December 2016’, ONS, https:// www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/ internationalmigration/bulletins/migrationstatisticsquarterlyreport/dec2016)
(g) Evaluate the likely impact of high inflation on the UK government’s macroeconomic objectives. (20)
June 2018 · Paper 1 · Q7 25 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=8, AO4=9 25-mark essay Either/or externalities
7 In September 2016 the government approved the building of an £18 billion nuclear power station, Hinkley Point C, which will supply 7% of UK electricity for up to 60 years. The power station is funded by Chinese and French investment. Evaluate the likely private costs and external costs involved in such major power station construction projects. Use an appropriate externalities diagram in your answer.
June 2018 · Paper 1 · Q8 25 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=8, AO4=9 25-mark essay Either/or monopoly
8 In July 2016 Apple’s share of the UK market for smartphones was 38%. Evaluate whether such a high market share for one company is in the consumer interest. Use appropriate diagrammatic analysis in your answer.
June 2018 · Paper 2 · Q7 25 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=8, AO4=9 25-mark essay Either/or national income and the multiplieraggregate supply
7 In 2016 the UK Chancellor of the Exchequer announced that the government would spend an extra £23 billion on innovation and infrastructure over the following five years. Evaluate the likely economic effects of this planned increase in government expenditure.
June 2018 · Paper 2 · Q8 25 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=8, AO4=9 25-mark essay Either/or exchange rates
8 The British pound fell by over 10% to a 30-year low against the US dollar after the UK voted to leave the European Union. To what extent will this depreciation impact on future economic growth in the UK?
June 2018 · Paper 3 · Q1(d) 25 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=8, AO4=9 25-mark essay Either/or business growth and objectivesglobalisation and trade
Data and extracts for question 1Branded coffee shops Figure 1: Market share of UK branded coffee shops, 2015, percentages Others Costa Coffee 29% 31% Pret a Manger 5% Morrisons Starbucks 6% 13% Tesco Caffè Nero 7% 9% (Source: http://metro.co.uk/2015/12/14/the-uks-most-popular- coffee-shop-has-been-revealed-5564569/) Figure 2: Number of Starbucks coffee shops worldwide, 2003–2016 Number of coffee shops 30 000 25 085 25 000 23 043 21 366 19 767 20 000 18 066 17 003 16 63516 858 16 680 15 011 15 000 12 440 8 569 10 241 10 000 7 225 5 000 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 (Source: https://www.statista.com/statistics/266465/ number-of-starbucks-stores-worldwide/) Figure 3: Price comparison in selected London coffee retailers, February 2017 Coffee style Starbucks Costa Coffee Caffè Nero Greggs McDonald’s Espresso Double £2.00 £2.00 £1.70 £1.65 £0.99 Latte Medium £2.60 £2.50 £2.50 £1.80 £1.79 Latte Large £2.80 £2.70 £2.80 £2.10 £2.09 (Source: data collected from coffee shops in Holborn, London on 25 February 2017) Extract A Starbucks in Britain – a loss-making business? Coffee shops are among the most profitable parts of the food and drink industry, and few are doing quite as well as Starbucks, a US-based transnational company. Starbucks may be complaining of adverse global market conditions but that did not stop the world’s biggest coffee chain from reporting record annual profits in 2016. It made a profit of 5 almost US$4.2 billion for the year, up 16% on 2015. That was mainly the result of a strong performance in its biggest market, America, where revenue rose 11%. The fastest growth was in the China and Asia Pacific region, with revenue up 23%. Howard Schultz, the CEO of Starbucks, said its Chinese coffee shops were the most efficient and profitable. While Starbucks still makes most of its profit in the US, Mr Schultz has said expansion in China 10 will secure its future for “decades to come” and announced plans to more than double the number of shops in China to 5 000 by 2021. However its British subsidiary, at first glance, appears to be doing less well. It has announced its first ever profit in Britain in 2015 – of just £1 million – despite opening its first coffee shop in the UK in 1998. It now has 849 UK outlets. The main reason why 15 Starbucks has reported persistent losses in the UK is not due to a lack of demand for its coffee, but to minimise its tax bill. It is claimed that some of Starbucks’ revenue earned in the UK is transferred to its Dutch subsidiary, which is charged lower rates of tax. Starbucks is not finding life as easy in Britain as in the USA. It faces competition from home-grown chains such as Costa and Caffè Nero. Accusations of tax avoidance have also 20 damaged Starbucks’ sales to the benefit of its competitors. A survey found that a third less people rated Starbucks as their preferred coffee shop than they did before the tax- avoidance allegations were first published. These issues have forced Starbucks to change its strategy. It has slowed down its expansion plans in the UK and has closed 67 underperforming coffee shops over the past 25 year. It has also tried to repair its reputation by transferring its European headquarters from Amsterdam to London. (Sources: adapted from The Economist 14 February 2015 http://www.economist.com/ news/business-and-finance/21643271-tax and Starbucks company report 2016 and http://s21.q4cdn.com/369030626/files/doc_financials/ 2015/Starbucks-Fiscal-2015_Financial-Highlights.pdf) Extract B Tax on disposable coffee cups? Two and a half billion disposable cups are thrown away every year in the UK, that is, seven million every day. Only one in 400 is recycled. The UK Environment Minister has suggested that a coffee cup tax could work in a similar manner to the plastic bag charge. The 5 pence a bag charge has led to an 85% reduction in the number of bags 5 being given out since October 2015. It is estimated that introducing a tax on disposable coffee cups would cut usage by two billion every year. One environment spokesperson, Kate Parminter, said: “We’ve seen how dramatically a small charge has affected public behaviour when it comes to the plastic bags and it is clearly time to extend it to coffee cups. Most people purchase a tea or coffee and throw away the cup without even 10 thinking about it, but a charge would increase our awareness of the environmental impact.” In response, another MP welcomed her comments but said he did not believe a tax was the solution. He said: “My initial reaction is charging 5p or 10p for the cup will not work. It will not encourage people to take their own cups in if a coffee goes up from £2.60 to 15 £2.65. I suspect a more technological answer is what we need – either the composition of the disposable cups being changed so they’re more easily recyclable, or changing the technology in the recycling.” Disposable coffee cups contain a plastic coating inside the cups which prevent them from becoming soggy, making them difficult to recycle. There are just two specialist 20 facilities in the UK that have the required equipment to separate plastic from paper for recycling. Almost no recycled paper is used in the production of disposable cups, meaning that some 43 000 trees must be cut down annually to keep up with the demand. CO emissions of around 83 000 tonnes are generated every year for their production. 25 (Sources: adapted from http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/disposable-coffee- cups-could-be-taxed-like-plastic-bags-environment-minister-says-a6938126.html 05/09/16 and https://www.cchdaily.co.uk/lib-dems-call-5p-plastic-bag-tax-coffee-cups) Extract C German city of Freiburg takes action on cutting the use of disposable coffee cups The ‘Freiburg cup’, made from dishwasher-proof plastic, can be reused hundreds of times. Cups are issued with a one-euro deposit, and can be returned to any of the participating coffee shops in the German city. The cups, which are provided to coffee shops by local councils, are washed in the cafés and bakeries that have signed up to the scheme before 5 being reused. 56 coffee retailers have signed up, and 10 000 cups are being used. One of the main obstacles facing a wider-reaching scheme, however, is the number of café chains in Germany that are unwilling to use unbranded multi-use cups, particularly Starbucks and McDonald’s. Starbucks already offers a discounted coffee for customers with a multi-use cup, but only if it is bearing the unmistakable Starbucks logo. 10 (Source: adapted from http://www.dw.com/en/germanys-love-for-coffee-to-go- leaves-environmental-groups-demanding-action/a-36689719)
(d) Evaluate the microeconomic and macroeconomic factors that may influence Starbucks’ decision whether to expand in a particular country. (25)
June 2018 · Paper 3 · Q1(e) 25 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=8, AO4=9 25-mark essay Either/or supply and demandnational income and the multiplier
Data and extracts for question 1Branded coffee shops Figure 1: Market share of UK branded coffee shops, 2015, percentages Others Costa Coffee 29% 31% Pret a Manger 5% Morrisons Starbucks 6% 13% Tesco Caffè Nero 7% 9% (Source: http://metro.co.uk/2015/12/14/the-uks-most-popular- coffee-shop-has-been-revealed-5564569/) Figure 2: Number of Starbucks coffee shops worldwide, 2003–2016 Number of coffee shops 30 000 25 085 25 000 23 043 21 366 19 767 20 000 18 066 17 003 16 63516 858 16 680 15 011 15 000 12 440 8 569 10 241 10 000 7 225 5 000 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 (Source: https://www.statista.com/statistics/266465/ number-of-starbucks-stores-worldwide/) Figure 3: Price comparison in selected London coffee retailers, February 2017 Coffee style Starbucks Costa Coffee Caffè Nero Greggs McDonald’s Espresso Double £2.00 £2.00 £1.70 £1.65 £0.99 Latte Medium £2.60 £2.50 £2.50 £1.80 £1.79 Latte Large £2.80 £2.70 £2.80 £2.10 £2.09 (Source: data collected from coffee shops in Holborn, London on 25 February 2017) Extract A Starbucks in Britain – a loss-making business? Coffee shops are among the most profitable parts of the food and drink industry, and few are doing quite as well as Starbucks, a US-based transnational company. Starbucks may be complaining of adverse global market conditions but that did not stop the world’s biggest coffee chain from reporting record annual profits in 2016. It made a profit of 5 almost US$4.2 billion for the year, up 16% on 2015. That was mainly the result of a strong performance in its biggest market, America, where revenue rose 11%. The fastest growth was in the China and Asia Pacific region, with revenue up 23%. Howard Schultz, the CEO of Starbucks, said its Chinese coffee shops were the most efficient and profitable. While Starbucks still makes most of its profit in the US, Mr Schultz has said expansion in China 10 will secure its future for “decades to come” and announced plans to more than double the number of shops in China to 5 000 by 2021. However its British subsidiary, at first glance, appears to be doing less well. It has announced its first ever profit in Britain in 2015 – of just £1 million – despite opening its first coffee shop in the UK in 1998. It now has 849 UK outlets. The main reason why 15 Starbucks has reported persistent losses in the UK is not due to a lack of demand for its coffee, but to minimise its tax bill. It is claimed that some of Starbucks’ revenue earned in the UK is transferred to its Dutch subsidiary, which is charged lower rates of tax. Starbucks is not finding life as easy in Britain as in the USA. It faces competition from home-grown chains such as Costa and Caffè Nero. Accusations of tax avoidance have also 20 damaged Starbucks’ sales to the benefit of its competitors. A survey found that a third less people rated Starbucks as their preferred coffee shop than they did before the tax- avoidance allegations were first published. These issues have forced Starbucks to change its strategy. It has slowed down its expansion plans in the UK and has closed 67 underperforming coffee shops over the past 25 year. It has also tried to repair its reputation by transferring its European headquarters from Amsterdam to London. (Sources: adapted from The Economist 14 February 2015 http://www.economist.com/ news/business-and-finance/21643271-tax and Starbucks company report 2016 and http://s21.q4cdn.com/369030626/files/doc_financials/ 2015/Starbucks-Fiscal-2015_Financial-Highlights.pdf) Extract B Tax on disposable coffee cups? Two and a half billion disposable cups are thrown away every year in the UK, that is, seven million every day. Only one in 400 is recycled. The UK Environment Minister has suggested that a coffee cup tax could work in a similar manner to the plastic bag charge. The 5 pence a bag charge has led to an 85% reduction in the number of bags 5 being given out since October 2015. It is estimated that introducing a tax on disposable coffee cups would cut usage by two billion every year. One environment spokesperson, Kate Parminter, said: “We’ve seen how dramatically a small charge has affected public behaviour when it comes to the plastic bags and it is clearly time to extend it to coffee cups. Most people purchase a tea or coffee and throw away the cup without even 10 thinking about it, but a charge would increase our awareness of the environmental impact.” In response, another MP welcomed her comments but said he did not believe a tax was the solution. He said: “My initial reaction is charging 5p or 10p for the cup will not work. It will not encourage people to take their own cups in if a coffee goes up from £2.60 to 15 £2.65. I suspect a more technological answer is what we need – either the composition of the disposable cups being changed so they’re more easily recyclable, or changing the technology in the recycling.” Disposable coffee cups contain a plastic coating inside the cups which prevent them from becoming soggy, making them difficult to recycle. There are just two specialist 20 facilities in the UK that have the required equipment to separate plastic from paper for recycling. Almost no recycled paper is used in the production of disposable cups, meaning that some 43 000 trees must be cut down annually to keep up with the demand. CO emissions of around 83 000 tonnes are generated every year for their production. 25 (Sources: adapted from http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/disposable-coffee- cups-could-be-taxed-like-plastic-bags-environment-minister-says-a6938126.html 05/09/16 and https://www.cchdaily.co.uk/lib-dems-call-5p-plastic-bag-tax-coffee-cups) Extract C German city of Freiburg takes action on cutting the use of disposable coffee cups The ‘Freiburg cup’, made from dishwasher-proof plastic, can be reused hundreds of times. Cups are issued with a one-euro deposit, and can be returned to any of the participating coffee shops in the German city. The cups, which are provided to coffee shops by local councils, are washed in the cafés and bakeries that have signed up to the scheme before 5 being reused. 56 coffee retailers have signed up, and 10 000 cups are being used. One of the main obstacles facing a wider-reaching scheme, however, is the number of café chains in Germany that are unwilling to use unbranded multi-use cups, particularly Starbucks and McDonald’s. Starbucks already offers a discounted coffee for customers with a multi-use cup, but only if it is bearing the unmistakable Starbucks logo. 10 (Source: adapted from http://www.dw.com/en/germanys-love-for-coffee-to-go- leaves-environmental-groups-demanding-action/a-36689719)
(e) With reference to the information provided and your own knowledge, evaluate the microeconomic and macroeconomic effects of increased UK demand for coffee at branded coffee shops. (25)
June 2018 · Paper 3 · Q2(d) 25 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=8, AO4=9 25-mark essay Either/or emerging and developing economiesprice elasticity of demand
Data and extracts for question 2Indonesia Figure 4: World coal prices, 2006–2016, US dollars per tonne 250 200 150 $ per tonne 100 50 0 2006 08 10 12 14 16 (Source: http://www.economist.com/news/world-week/21697025-business-week) Figure 5: Indonesia’s real GDP, annual percentage change 10 5 + % 0 change – in GDP 5 10 15 2006 08 10 12 14 16 (Source: http://www.economist.com/news/world-week/21697025-business-week) Extract D Indonesia’s economic outlook The Indonesian economy is expected to grow by an average of 4.8% a year between 2017 and 2021. Joko Widodo, president of Indonesia since 2014, is increasingly confident in his role and now has enough political support to pass some of his desired supply-side reforms. His government has been aggressively trying to improve the business and investment 5 environment by easing regulations and offering tax incentives, for example to firms investing in special economic zones. Indonesia receives US$2.3 billion a year in overseas development aid, which is mainly spent on education and healthcare. There is also ongoing aid from international institutions and non-government organisations paying for restructuring after the 2004 10 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami, which led to the loss of over 170 000 lives and much damage to economic livelihood. Aid agencies have supported the Indonesian government in providing healthcare free at the point of access for 88 million of the poorest people, free schooling for 12 years for each child, and tertiary education for students accepted into university. There is a scheme to provide each of Indonesia’s 15 15.5 million poorest households with a cash transfer of 200 000 rupiah (US$14.37) a month. The World Bank has approved US$800 million in infrastructure loans to Indonesia, with another US$950 million as conditional loans. The Asian Development Bank has committed itself to lending US$2 billion. In December Japan’s development agency lent Indonesia US$535 million to construct two power stations. 20 (Sources: adapted from http://country.eiu.com/Indonesia and http://www.economist.com/ news/special-report/21693404-after-decades-underinvestment- infrastructure-spending-picking-up-last) Extract E Indonesia’s economic policies as commodity prices collapse Indonesia is the world’s fourth largest exporter of coal and the raw material accounts for 11% of its exports. Its other main exports are crude oil, palm oil, rubber and tin. Its main commodity exports tripled in value between 2000 and 2010, and as exports boomed, so did the economy. But the value of commodity exports has fallen by more than half from 5 its peak. Coal now sells for just US$50 per tonne, against US$125 in 2011. In the decade to 2014, Indonesia’s real GDP grew by an annual average of 6%, but the collapse in commodity prices has slowed the economy. In 2015 growth was 4.8%, the slowest rate since 2009. But compared with many other commodity exporters, Indonesia is getting off lightly. 10 The value of the rupiah, Indonesia’s currency, against the US dollar has fallen by 30% since 2013, but has since stabilised. Other emerging market currencies have depreciated even more steeply over that period. Despite the weak exchange rate, Indonesia’s inflation rate has mostly remained within the central bank’s target range of 3-5%. The main impact of the rupiah’s fall has been to curb imports, helping limit Indonesia’s current account 15 deficit to around 2% of GDP despite weaker export earnings. A cautious fiscal policy during the boom years has allowed for a modest fiscal expansion to offset the effects of weak exports and investment. The national debt is just 26% of GDP. Mr Widodo knows that Indonesia cannot raise its long-term growth rate if the economy remains reliant on coal. It needs a broader range of manufacturing and service industries. 20 If new enterprise is to flourish, Indonesia must support local entrepreneurship. The labour market is inflexible. To start a business takes an average of 47 days, compared with four in Malaysia and two in Singapore. The President’s supply-side policies are improving the business climate. The average number of days needed to approve a new power plant has declined from 900 to 200. The government recently revised its “negative investment 25 list” of sectors in which foreign ownership is banned or restricted, fully opening up the rubber, film and restaurant sectors, among others. In 2015 he launched a series of measures to try to reduce government failure, including easing some regulations, streamlining licensing procedures for firms on industrial estates and providing tax incentives to invest in special economic zones. 30 The government has used savings from cutting fuel subsidies, worth over 4% of GDP, to fund extra capital spending. But the budget deficit still widened to 2.8% of GDP, very close to the legal limit of 3%. If public expenditure is to increase further, the government will need to raise more revenue. That will not be easy. Most workers and employers pay little or no tax. Only 27 million of Indonesia’s 255 million people are registered taxpayers, 35 and in 2014 just 900 000 of them paid what they owed, leaving it with a tax revenue to GDP ratio of around 10%. Big companies say that they are being squeezed harder by the tax authorities because they are an easier target. Infrastructure spending will help bring foreign investment and good jobs to Indonesia as well as encouraging exports. Indonesia’s infrastructure problem can be summed up 40 as too few roads and congested ports. In the short term, infrastructure spending puts people to work and boosts demand for raw materials. In the longer term this spending offers the chance to make up for decades of neglect and underinvestment. Indonesia has plans for 65 dams, 16 of which are already under construction. In 2015 work started on the Keureuto Dam, designed to boost agricultural productivity in Aceh. Recently fields 45 were flooded for the massive Jatigede Dam in West Java, after 20 years of delays. Once complete, the dam will irrigate 90 000 hectares of rice paddy, increasing efficiency by giving farmers two harvests a year instead of one. (Sources: adapted from http://www.economist.com/news/special-report/21693405- secure-growth-it-needs-indonesia-must-resist-its-protectionist-urges-roll- out and http://www.economist.com/news/special-report/21693404-after- decades-underinvestment-infrastructure-spending-picking-up-last)
(d) With reference to the information provided and your own knowledge, evaluate the microeconomic and macroeconomic effects on Indonesia of the volatility of prices of commodities such as coal. (25)
June 2018 · Paper 3 · Q2(e) 25 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=8, AO4=9 25-mark essay Either/or supply side policiescompetition policy and regulation
Data and extracts for question 2Indonesia Figure 4: World coal prices, 2006–2016, US dollars per tonne 250 200 150 $ per tonne 100 50 0 2006 08 10 12 14 16 (Source: http://www.economist.com/news/world-week/21697025-business-week) Figure 5: Indonesia’s real GDP, annual percentage change 10 5 + % 0 change – in GDP 5 10 15 2006 08 10 12 14 16 (Source: http://www.economist.com/news/world-week/21697025-business-week) Extract D Indonesia’s economic outlook The Indonesian economy is expected to grow by an average of 4.8% a year between 2017 and 2021. Joko Widodo, president of Indonesia since 2014, is increasingly confident in his role and now has enough political support to pass some of his desired supply-side reforms. His government has been aggressively trying to improve the business and investment 5 environment by easing regulations and offering tax incentives, for example to firms investing in special economic zones. Indonesia receives US$2.3 billion a year in overseas development aid, which is mainly spent on education and healthcare. There is also ongoing aid from international institutions and non-government organisations paying for restructuring after the 2004 10 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami, which led to the loss of over 170 000 lives and much damage to economic livelihood. Aid agencies have supported the Indonesian government in providing healthcare free at the point of access for 88 million of the poorest people, free schooling for 12 years for each child, and tertiary education for students accepted into university. There is a scheme to provide each of Indonesia’s 15 15.5 million poorest households with a cash transfer of 200 000 rupiah (US$14.37) a month. The World Bank has approved US$800 million in infrastructure loans to Indonesia, with another US$950 million as conditional loans. The Asian Development Bank has committed itself to lending US$2 billion. In December Japan’s development agency lent Indonesia US$535 million to construct two power stations. 20 (Sources: adapted from http://country.eiu.com/Indonesia and http://www.economist.com/ news/special-report/21693404-after-decades-underinvestment- infrastructure-spending-picking-up-last) Extract E Indonesia’s economic policies as commodity prices collapse Indonesia is the world’s fourth largest exporter of coal and the raw material accounts for 11% of its exports. Its other main exports are crude oil, palm oil, rubber and tin. Its main commodity exports tripled in value between 2000 and 2010, and as exports boomed, so did the economy. But the value of commodity exports has fallen by more than half from 5 its peak. Coal now sells for just US$50 per tonne, against US$125 in 2011. In the decade to 2014, Indonesia’s real GDP grew by an annual average of 6%, but the collapse in commodity prices has slowed the economy. In 2015 growth was 4.8%, the slowest rate since 2009. But compared with many other commodity exporters, Indonesia is getting off lightly. 10 The value of the rupiah, Indonesia’s currency, against the US dollar has fallen by 30% since 2013, but has since stabilised. Other emerging market currencies have depreciated even more steeply over that period. Despite the weak exchange rate, Indonesia’s inflation rate has mostly remained within the central bank’s target range of 3-5%. The main impact of the rupiah’s fall has been to curb imports, helping limit Indonesia’s current account 15 deficit to around 2% of GDP despite weaker export earnings. A cautious fiscal policy during the boom years has allowed for a modest fiscal expansion to offset the effects of weak exports and investment. The national debt is just 26% of GDP. Mr Widodo knows that Indonesia cannot raise its long-term growth rate if the economy remains reliant on coal. It needs a broader range of manufacturing and service industries. 20 If new enterprise is to flourish, Indonesia must support local entrepreneurship. The labour market is inflexible. To start a business takes an average of 47 days, compared with four in Malaysia and two in Singapore. The President’s supply-side policies are improving the business climate. The average number of days needed to approve a new power plant has declined from 900 to 200. The government recently revised its “negative investment 25 list” of sectors in which foreign ownership is banned or restricted, fully opening up the rubber, film and restaurant sectors, among others. In 2015 he launched a series of measures to try to reduce government failure, including easing some regulations, streamlining licensing procedures for firms on industrial estates and providing tax incentives to invest in special economic zones. 30 The government has used savings from cutting fuel subsidies, worth over 4% of GDP, to fund extra capital spending. But the budget deficit still widened to 2.8% of GDP, very close to the legal limit of 3%. If public expenditure is to increase further, the government will need to raise more revenue. That will not be easy. Most workers and employers pay little or no tax. Only 27 million of Indonesia’s 255 million people are registered taxpayers, 35 and in 2014 just 900 000 of them paid what they owed, leaving it with a tax revenue to GDP ratio of around 10%. Big companies say that they are being squeezed harder by the tax authorities because they are an easier target. Infrastructure spending will help bring foreign investment and good jobs to Indonesia as well as encouraging exports. Indonesia’s infrastructure problem can be summed up 40 as too few roads and congested ports. In the short term, infrastructure spending puts people to work and boosts demand for raw materials. In the longer term this spending offers the chance to make up for decades of neglect and underinvestment. Indonesia has plans for 65 dams, 16 of which are already under construction. In 2015 work started on the Keureuto Dam, designed to boost agricultural productivity in Aceh. Recently fields 45 were flooded for the massive Jatigede Dam in West Java, after 20 years of delays. Once complete, the dam will irrigate 90 000 hectares of rice paddy, increasing efficiency by giving farmers two harvests a year instead of one. (Sources: adapted from http://www.economist.com/news/special-report/21693405- secure-growth-it-needs-indonesia-must-resist-its-protectionist-urges-roll- out and http://www.economist.com/news/special-report/21693404-after- decades-underinvestment-infrastructure-spending-picking-up-last)
(e) Evaluate the likely microeconomic and macroeconomic effects of the supply-side policies recently introduced in Indonesia. (25)
June 2017 · AS Paper 1 · Q6(f) 20 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=6, AO4=6 20-mark essay Either/or price mechanism and surpluseconomic systems
Data and extracts for question 6The market for cigarettes Figure 1: Price elasticity of demand - a comparison between tobacco and e-cigarettes Price of packet of 20 Price of tobacco cigarettes e-cigarette kit £7.70–£9.50 £9.99–£19.99 Average price per Single cigarette equivalent tobacco cigarette price of an e-cigarette 48p 7p Price elasticity of demand Price elasticity of demand for tobacco cigarettes for e-cigarettes –0.35 –1.9 (Source: adapted from https://www.blucigs.co.uk/united-kingdom/kits/all-kits) Extract A Government intervention on tobacco There was a time when smoking was fashionable. Television and magazine advertisements glorified smoking. Everyone from your dad to your doctor smoked in all places – cars, restaurants and even hospitals. Tobacco is still the single biggest cause of cancer in the world and the leading cause of preventable deaths. Nearly 80% of the 1 billion smokers worldwide live in low- and 5 middle-income countries. Bans on tobacco advertising, promotion and sponsorship can reduce tobacco consumption. Comprehensive smoking bans covering indoor workplaces, public places and public transport have been introduced in 48 countries. Tobacco taxes are the most cost-effective way to reduce tobacco use, especially among 10 the young and people in low-income groups. A tax increase that raises tobacco prices by 10% decreases tobacco consumption by 4% in high-income countries and 5% in low- and middle-income countries. However, some 8 million people are expected to die each year by 2030 – because they have smoked tobacco or have been exposed to passive smoking. The use of alternative 15 products such as electronic cigarettes (e-cigarettes) are gaining in popularity but information about their effects is uncertain. Little research has yet been done about the long-term health effects of e-cigarettes and the nicotine dispensed by e-cigarettes is highly addictive. The illegal tobacco market still counts for 1 in every 10 cigarettes consumed globally. In addition, tobacco companies still spend tens of billions of dollars 20 each year on advertising and promoting tobacco products and sponsoring events. They continuously challenge the regulatory measures governments are taking. (Source: adapted from http://www.who.int/topics/tobacco/en/ and http://www.who.int/ mediacentre/commentaries/reducing-tobacco-use/en/) Extract B Free market approach Are free markets incompatible with good health? If the solution to every problem involves banning advertising, raising prices and restricting availability, you might easily conclude that the free market is the disease and government regulation is the cure. From this perspective, the providers of food, alcohol and tobacco are determined to push the most unhealthy products on the public at the lowest prices. 5 Contrary to this viewpoint, the profit motive is not unhealthy. Businesses have an obvious incentive to keep their customers alive and customers have a strong incentive to seek out healthier options. Any company that can make a scientifically sound health claim gains a competitive advantage over its rivals. Health sells. In contrast, government regulation can lead to negative health outcomes. Markets can correct themselves long before 10 government failures are even acknowledged. Over a million Britons, almost all of whom are smokers or ex-smokers, use e-cigarettes, as a less hazardous product than cigarettes and yet e-cigarettes face increased regulations and in many countries they are banned. It is neither consistent nor ethical to prevent smokers from switching to much safer alternatives. Efforts to regulate e-cigarettes are a far greater threat to public health than 15 the products themselves. We argue that the interests of consumers are nearly always better advanced by the provision of accurate information and free choice than by prohibitions and regulations. The government policy of small but steady tax rises on tobacco and ever-larger warning labels is becoming less effective and leads to unintended consequences. 20 (Source: adapted from http://www.iea.org.uk/blog/free-market-solutions-in-health- should-be-allowed-to-flourish, Christopher Snowdon, 11th July 2013)
(f) Evaluate the possible advantages of a free market approach to cigarette consumption. (20)
June 2017 · AS Paper 1 · Q6(g) 20 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=6, AO4=6 20-mark essay Either/or government intervention in marketsgovernment failure
Data and extracts for question 6The market for cigarettes Figure 1: Price elasticity of demand - a comparison between tobacco and e-cigarettes Price of packet of 20 Price of tobacco cigarettes e-cigarette kit £7.70–£9.50 £9.99–£19.99 Average price per Single cigarette equivalent tobacco cigarette price of an e-cigarette 48p 7p Price elasticity of demand Price elasticity of demand for tobacco cigarettes for e-cigarettes –0.35 –1.9 (Source: adapted from https://www.blucigs.co.uk/united-kingdom/kits/all-kits) Extract A Government intervention on tobacco There was a time when smoking was fashionable. Television and magazine advertisements glorified smoking. Everyone from your dad to your doctor smoked in all places – cars, restaurants and even hospitals. Tobacco is still the single biggest cause of cancer in the world and the leading cause of preventable deaths. Nearly 80% of the 1 billion smokers worldwide live in low- and 5 middle-income countries. Bans on tobacco advertising, promotion and sponsorship can reduce tobacco consumption. Comprehensive smoking bans covering indoor workplaces, public places and public transport have been introduced in 48 countries. Tobacco taxes are the most cost-effective way to reduce tobacco use, especially among 10 the young and people in low-income groups. A tax increase that raises tobacco prices by 10% decreases tobacco consumption by 4% in high-income countries and 5% in low- and middle-income countries. However, some 8 million people are expected to die each year by 2030 – because they have smoked tobacco or have been exposed to passive smoking. The use of alternative 15 products such as electronic cigarettes (e-cigarettes) are gaining in popularity but information about their effects is uncertain. Little research has yet been done about the long-term health effects of e-cigarettes and the nicotine dispensed by e-cigarettes is highly addictive. The illegal tobacco market still counts for 1 in every 10 cigarettes consumed globally. In addition, tobacco companies still spend tens of billions of dollars 20 each year on advertising and promoting tobacco products and sponsoring events. They continuously challenge the regulatory measures governments are taking. (Source: adapted from http://www.who.int/topics/tobacco/en/ and http://www.who.int/ mediacentre/commentaries/reducing-tobacco-use/en/) Extract B Free market approach Are free markets incompatible with good health? If the solution to every problem involves banning advertising, raising prices and restricting availability, you might easily conclude that the free market is the disease and government regulation is the cure. From this perspective, the providers of food, alcohol and tobacco are determined to push the most unhealthy products on the public at the lowest prices. 5 Contrary to this viewpoint, the profit motive is not unhealthy. Businesses have an obvious incentive to keep their customers alive and customers have a strong incentive to seek out healthier options. Any company that can make a scientifically sound health claim gains a competitive advantage over its rivals. Health sells. In contrast, government regulation can lead to negative health outcomes. Markets can correct themselves long before 10 government failures are even acknowledged. Over a million Britons, almost all of whom are smokers or ex-smokers, use e-cigarettes, as a less hazardous product than cigarettes and yet e-cigarettes face increased regulations and in many countries they are banned. It is neither consistent nor ethical to prevent smokers from switching to much safer alternatives. Efforts to regulate e-cigarettes are a far greater threat to public health than 15 the products themselves. We argue that the interests of consumers are nearly always better advanced by the provision of accurate information and free choice than by prohibitions and regulations. The government policy of small but steady tax rises on tobacco and ever-larger warning labels is becoming less effective and leads to unintended consequences. 20 (Source: adapted from http://www.iea.org.uk/blog/free-market-solutions-in-health- should-be-allowed-to-flourish, Christopher Snowdon, 11th July 2013)
(g) Evaluate the impact of government intervention in the cigarette market. (20)
June 2017 · AS Paper 2 · Q6(f) 20 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=6, AO4=6 20-mark essay Either/or economic growth and the trade cycle
Data and extracts for question 6UK economic recovery Figure 1: Components of aggregate demand in selected countries 2014 Government Exports - Country Consumption Investment spending Imports UK 66% 14% 21% –2% Germany 57% 17% 19% 6% France 57% 20% 25% –2% China 34% 49% 14% 3% NB: Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding calculations. (Source: World Bank 2014) Figure 2: Nominal GDP per capita at Purchasing Power Parities (PPPs) (the base year 2000=100) 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 France Germany United Kingdom (Source: https://www.imf.org) Extract A The UK economy – a strange recovery At the Autumn Statement in November 2015, the Chancellor of the Exchequer had good reason to cheer his economic record. The UK economy appeared to have returned towards its long-term trend in the rate of economic growth. GDP growth has remained strong, with output rising at the highest rate in the G7 group of seven major industrialised countries. Unemployment continued to drop and business 5 investment grew by 5%. However, a number of concerns remain, particularly in relation to the UK’s current account deficit, which reached a record high of 6% of GDP in the third quarter of 2014. This was primarily a result of a sharp decline in the rate of return on UK investments overseas. Low export growth meant that the UK’s trade deficit persisted. 10 In 2012, the Chancellor had announced a target for the UK to export £1 trillion of goods and services by 2020, which would require an annual growth rate of 8%. However, the annual growth in UK exports had reached just 2.7%. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecast that UK exports will only reach £630 billion by 2020 – a third lower than the government’s target. 15 Exports in services continued to grow in 2015, but the UK’s goods industries were struggling. It was particularly concerning that data showed output in the UK’s construction and manufacturing industries falling. Indeed, the output of the manufacturing sector remained 6.3% below its pre-recession peak. Households, meanwhile, are set to become even more indebted over the coming years. 20 It is projected that the household gross debt to income ratio will rise by 26 percentage points between 2015 to 2020, returning to levels last seen before the Global Financial Crisis. The economy did not appear to be rebalancing away from consumer driven growth towards export-led growth, making another recession almost inevitable. Fundamental to this problem is the UK’s low productivity, which in 2015 remains 25 around 20 percentage points below the average for the rest of the G7. It is vital that the government tackles this problem, particularly in the sectors that are currently facing difficulties. This will require relaxing the planning system to promote more house-building, the removal of burdens on UK manufacturers such as carbon taxes, finally getting shale gas exploration going, and reforming apprenticeships to rapidly 30 improve skills in construction, manufacturing and technology. (Source: adapted from http://www.cityam.com/229481/chancellor-beware- uk-not-out-woods-yet, 25 November 2015 by Daniel Mahoney)
(f) Evaluate the benefits of economic growth to the UK given that ‘a number of concerns remain’ in the UK economy (Extract A, line 7). (20)
June 2017 · AS Paper 2 · Q6(g) 20 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=6, AO4=6 20-mark essay Either/or economic growth and the trade cycle
Data and extracts for question 6UK economic recovery Figure 1: Components of aggregate demand in selected countries 2014 Government Exports - Country Consumption Investment spending Imports UK 66% 14% 21% –2% Germany 57% 17% 19% 6% France 57% 20% 25% –2% China 34% 49% 14% 3% NB: Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding calculations. (Source: World Bank 2014) Figure 2: Nominal GDP per capita at Purchasing Power Parities (PPPs) (the base year 2000=100) 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 France Germany United Kingdom (Source: https://www.imf.org) Extract A The UK economy – a strange recovery At the Autumn Statement in November 2015, the Chancellor of the Exchequer had good reason to cheer his economic record. The UK economy appeared to have returned towards its long-term trend in the rate of economic growth. GDP growth has remained strong, with output rising at the highest rate in the G7 group of seven major industrialised countries. Unemployment continued to drop and business 5 investment grew by 5%. However, a number of concerns remain, particularly in relation to the UK’s current account deficit, which reached a record high of 6% of GDP in the third quarter of 2014. This was primarily a result of a sharp decline in the rate of return on UK investments overseas. Low export growth meant that the UK’s trade deficit persisted. 10 In 2012, the Chancellor had announced a target for the UK to export £1 trillion of goods and services by 2020, which would require an annual growth rate of 8%. However, the annual growth in UK exports had reached just 2.7%. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecast that UK exports will only reach £630 billion by 2020 – a third lower than the government’s target. 15 Exports in services continued to grow in 2015, but the UK’s goods industries were struggling. It was particularly concerning that data showed output in the UK’s construction and manufacturing industries falling. Indeed, the output of the manufacturing sector remained 6.3% below its pre-recession peak. Households, meanwhile, are set to become even more indebted over the coming years. 20 It is projected that the household gross debt to income ratio will rise by 26 percentage points between 2015 to 2020, returning to levels last seen before the Global Financial Crisis. The economy did not appear to be rebalancing away from consumer driven growth towards export-led growth, making another recession almost inevitable. Fundamental to this problem is the UK’s low productivity, which in 2015 remains 25 around 20 percentage points below the average for the rest of the G7. It is vital that the government tackles this problem, particularly in the sectors that are currently facing difficulties. This will require relaxing the planning system to promote more house-building, the removal of burdens on UK manufacturers such as carbon taxes, finally getting shale gas exploration going, and reforming apprenticeships to rapidly 30 improve skills in construction, manufacturing and technology. (Source: adapted from http://www.cityam.com/229481/chancellor-beware- uk-not-out-woods-yet, 25 November 2015 by Daniel Mahoney)
(g) Evaluate the view that another recession is ‘inevitable’ in the UK (Extract A, line 24). (20)
June 2017 · Paper 1 · Q7 25 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=8, AO4=9 25-mark essay Either/or indirect taxes and subsidiesgovernment intervention in markets
7 In 2015 a report by Public Health England recommended the imposition of a 20% tax on the sale of soft drinks that contain high levels of sugar. Evaluate the likely microeconomic effects of such a tax.
June 2017 · Paper 1 · Q8 25 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=8, AO4=9 25-mark essay Either/or business growth and objectives
8 ‘Revenue maximisation is a more realistic business objective than profit maximisation for many businesses.’ To what extent do you agree with this statement? Refer to an industry of your choice in your answer.
June 2017 · Paper 2 · Q7 25 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=8, AO4=9 25-mark essay Either/or trading blocs and protectionismglobalisation and trade
7 Since the global financial crisis of 2008 there have been over 5 700 increases in tariffs, quotas and administrative controls on international trade. Evaluate the likely effects of an increase in protectionism on the economy of a developing country of your choice.
June 2017 · Paper 2 · Q8 25 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=8, AO4=9 25-mark essay Either/or aggregate supplynational income and the multiplier
8 Global oil prices fell from a 2008 peak of $147 a barrel to $27 in 2016. Evaluate the likely macroeconomic consequences of a significant fall in global oil prices.
June 2017 · Paper 3 · Q1(d) 25 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=8, AO4=9 25-mark essay Either/or emerging and developing economiessupply side policies
Data and extracts for question 1Chile Figure 1: Copper prices, US dollars per tonne, 2007–2015 10000 US dollars per tonne 5000 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2014 2015 2013 (Source: adapted from http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/ ?commodity=copper&months=120) Figure 2: US dollar per 100 Chile pesos exchange rate, 2007–2015 0.24 0.22 Price of 100 Chile 0.20 pesos in 0.18 US dollars 0.16 0.14 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 (Source: https://www.google.co.uk/finance?q=CLPUSD&ei=OGEvVun-AouIU6awjugF) Figure 3: Chile: copper output and real GDP growth, 2007–2015 10 GDP 5 Annual 0 % change –5 Copper output –10 2013 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2014 2015 (Source: adapted from FT.com sources below) Extract A Chile’s economic outlook brightens Chile has been hit hard by a worldwide fall in commodity prices since 2011. Copper accounts for 20% of Chile’s GDP and 60% of its exports; one third of the world’s copper is produced by Chile. China purchased 40% of the world’s copper, so a slowdown in China combined with increased global over-supply has meant copper prices have 5 collapsed (see Figure 1). Chilean government income from copper exports had reached $11.5 billion a year before copper prices fell, but now tax revenues from this source have fallen drastically. Growing numbers of copper mines struggle to break even at current prices. Chile’s GDP is now growing, helped by a weak currency that has boosted export 10 industries outside the mining sector, such as its successful wine and salmon industries. There are strengths in tourism and high-tech products. Public services are good in Chile, and poverty rates have been falling fast. On top of this, a large and diversified financial sector with high domestic savings provides a useful safety net, given high levels of corporate debt and the government’s need to finance a fiscal deficit of 3% of GDP. 15 Chile’s economy is often regarded as the best run in the region. This is attributed to the credibility of its financial institutions, relatively low levels of national debt (about 15% of GDP) and its free-trade model, which is unrestricted by government interventionism that has distorted the economies of countries such as Argentina and Venezuela. “Chile is an example of how credible institutions can smooth the economic cycle and make 20 adjustments less traumatic,” said Mr Valdés, the minister of finance in Chile, pointing to its widely respected and independent central bank and a well-established fiscal rule that give officials the freedom to implement counter-cyclical policies. However, there are worries that without enough spare capacity in the economy, expansionary fiscal and monetary policies could end up increasing inflation rather than 25 economic growth. Meanwhile monetary policy is restricted by inflation that has reached 5%, well outside the central bank’s 2–4% target range, fuelled by a weaker exchange rate. Crucially, investment remains low because of uncertainty over the outcome of the Prime Minister’s reforms, which are aimed at reducing inequality. A recent rise in corporation tax from 20% to 25% and labour market reforms that strengthen the power of trade 30 unions may have a negative effect on business confidence. Despite a “mildly contractionary” budget, Valdés insisted that the government would continue with costly reforms. Increased taxes on those on higher incomes are considered by the government to be necessary to sustain economic development in Chile. “We do want to change society, while recognising all the good things that have been done in 35 the past 25 years,” said Mr Valdés, referring to an average growth rate of 5.3% over the past three decades, but under 2% in 2015. There is broad consensus that investment in education is the key to unlocking Chile’s growth potential. (Sources: adapted from http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/89926ce8-df96-11e4-a6c400144feab7de html#axzz3pCnzT3PC FT 20 April 2015 and http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d60ac2b2-7453- 11e5-a129-3fcc4f641d98.html?siteedition=uk#axzz3pCnzT3PC FT 19 October 2015 and http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d60ac2b2-7453-11e5-a129-3fcc4f641d98.html?siteedition= uk#axzz3pCnzT3PC FT 19 October 2015 all by Benedict Mander) Extract B Chile’s copper mining on a downward track There was a time when investing in Chilean mining meant guaranteed success. After 1990, when military rule was replaced by an elected government, market reforms and restored relations with the US and UK meant foreign companies were keen to exploit vast copper reserves. The existence of large copper reserves in a stable country with a 5 business-friendly government is rare, making Chile much more attractive to investors than countries such as Zambia. By mid-2015, however, the copper price hit a six-year low. Chilean mines are becoming less productive. After 20 years of heavy digging, the ore is lower grade, and much further down. The deeper pits take longer to mine, and use more fuel. Wages are high, and trade 10 unions are powerful. A mining truck driver earns $70 000 a year, $10 000 more than the US equivalent. Many mining projects that were planned are being postponed, and investors are looking to Peru; even the US copper mining industry is becoming more competitive. Energy supply is also a worry as Chile produces virtually no fossil fuels and relies on 15 imported coal and liquid natural gas to power its mines. Energy costs account for 18% of the cost of copper production. Water supply is also becoming a major problem. Farmers and communities accuse mining companies of causing water shortages to keep their operations running. A prolonged drought has not helped. Mining firms are turning to desalination plants 20 or using untreated seawater. However pumping water 200 kilometres from the Pacific Ocean to the copper mines is costly. Chile’s environmentalist movement has forced the government to tighten regulations. In 2001, it took 236 days to get an environmental impact assessment of a new mine approved. By 2013, this had increased to 506 days. 25 (Source: adapted from http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ea060ef4-6ae2-11e5-8171- ba1968cf791a.html#axzz3p20if45k Gideon Long September 27, 2015)
(d) With reference to the information provided and your own knowledge, evaluate the microeconomic and macroeconomic effects of policies that could be used to stimulate economic growth and development in Chile. (25)
June 2017 · Paper 3 · Q1(e) 25 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=8, AO4=9 25-mark essay Either/or aggregate demandnational income and the multiplier
Data and extracts for question 1Chile Figure 1: Copper prices, US dollars per tonne, 2007–2015 10000 US dollars per tonne 5000 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2014 2015 2013 (Source: adapted from http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/ ?commodity=copper&months=120) Figure 2: US dollar per 100 Chile pesos exchange rate, 2007–2015 0.24 0.22 Price of 100 Chile 0.20 pesos in 0.18 US dollars 0.16 0.14 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 (Source: https://www.google.co.uk/finance?q=CLPUSD&ei=OGEvVun-AouIU6awjugF) Figure 3: Chile: copper output and real GDP growth, 2007–2015 10 GDP 5 Annual 0 % change –5 Copper output –10 2013 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2014 2015 (Source: adapted from FT.com sources below) Extract A Chile’s economic outlook brightens Chile has been hit hard by a worldwide fall in commodity prices since 2011. Copper accounts for 20% of Chile’s GDP and 60% of its exports; one third of the world’s copper is produced by Chile. China purchased 40% of the world’s copper, so a slowdown in China combined with increased global over-supply has meant copper prices have 5 collapsed (see Figure 1). Chilean government income from copper exports had reached $11.5 billion a year before copper prices fell, but now tax revenues from this source have fallen drastically. Growing numbers of copper mines struggle to break even at current prices. Chile’s GDP is now growing, helped by a weak currency that has boosted export 10 industries outside the mining sector, such as its successful wine and salmon industries. There are strengths in tourism and high-tech products. Public services are good in Chile, and poverty rates have been falling fast. On top of this, a large and diversified financial sector with high domestic savings provides a useful safety net, given high levels of corporate debt and the government’s need to finance a fiscal deficit of 3% of GDP. 15 Chile’s economy is often regarded as the best run in the region. This is attributed to the credibility of its financial institutions, relatively low levels of national debt (about 15% of GDP) and its free-trade model, which is unrestricted by government interventionism that has distorted the economies of countries such as Argentina and Venezuela. “Chile is an example of how credible institutions can smooth the economic cycle and make 20 adjustments less traumatic,” said Mr Valdés, the minister of finance in Chile, pointing to its widely respected and independent central bank and a well-established fiscal rule that give officials the freedom to implement counter-cyclical policies. However, there are worries that without enough spare capacity in the economy, expansionary fiscal and monetary policies could end up increasing inflation rather than 25 economic growth. Meanwhile monetary policy is restricted by inflation that has reached 5%, well outside the central bank’s 2–4% target range, fuelled by a weaker exchange rate. Crucially, investment remains low because of uncertainty over the outcome of the Prime Minister’s reforms, which are aimed at reducing inequality. A recent rise in corporation tax from 20% to 25% and labour market reforms that strengthen the power of trade 30 unions may have a negative effect on business confidence. Despite a “mildly contractionary” budget, Valdés insisted that the government would continue with costly reforms. Increased taxes on those on higher incomes are considered by the government to be necessary to sustain economic development in Chile. “We do want to change society, while recognising all the good things that have been done in 35 the past 25 years,” said Mr Valdés, referring to an average growth rate of 5.3% over the past three decades, but under 2% in 2015. There is broad consensus that investment in education is the key to unlocking Chile’s growth potential. (Sources: adapted from http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/89926ce8-df96-11e4-a6c400144feab7de html#axzz3pCnzT3PC FT 20 April 2015 and http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d60ac2b2-7453- 11e5-a129-3fcc4f641d98.html?siteedition=uk#axzz3pCnzT3PC FT 19 October 2015 and http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d60ac2b2-7453-11e5-a129-3fcc4f641d98.html?siteedition= uk#axzz3pCnzT3PC FT 19 October 2015 all by Benedict Mander) Extract B Chile’s copper mining on a downward track There was a time when investing in Chilean mining meant guaranteed success. After 1990, when military rule was replaced by an elected government, market reforms and restored relations with the US and UK meant foreign companies were keen to exploit vast copper reserves. The existence of large copper reserves in a stable country with a 5 business-friendly government is rare, making Chile much more attractive to investors than countries such as Zambia. By mid-2015, however, the copper price hit a six-year low. Chilean mines are becoming less productive. After 20 years of heavy digging, the ore is lower grade, and much further down. The deeper pits take longer to mine, and use more fuel. Wages are high, and trade 10 unions are powerful. A mining truck driver earns $70 000 a year, $10 000 more than the US equivalent. Many mining projects that were planned are being postponed, and investors are looking to Peru; even the US copper mining industry is becoming more competitive. Energy supply is also a worry as Chile produces virtually no fossil fuels and relies on 15 imported coal and liquid natural gas to power its mines. Energy costs account for 18% of the cost of copper production. Water supply is also becoming a major problem. Farmers and communities accuse mining companies of causing water shortages to keep their operations running. A prolonged drought has not helped. Mining firms are turning to desalination plants 20 or using untreated seawater. However pumping water 200 kilometres from the Pacific Ocean to the copper mines is costly. Chile’s environmentalist movement has forced the government to tighten regulations. In 2001, it took 236 days to get an environmental impact assessment of a new mine approved. By 2013, this had increased to 506 days. 25 (Source: adapted from http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ea060ef4-6ae2-11e5-8171- ba1968cf791a.html#axzz3p20if45k Gideon Long September 27, 2015)
(e) With reference to the information provided and your own knowledge, evaluate the microeconomic and macroeconomic impact on Chile’s economy of changes in the level of investment. (25)
June 2017 · Paper 3 · Q2(d) 25 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=8, AO4=9 25-mark essay Either/or international competitiveness
Data and extracts for question 2The UK economy Figure 4: UK national debt as a percentage of GDP 90 Forecast 80 70 60 % of 50 GDP 40 30 20 10 0 (Source: http://budgetresponsibility.org.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/BriefGuide_020511.pdf) Figure 5: UK fiscal deficit, public sector net borrowing (PSNB) 80 Forecast 40 £ billion 0 –40 –80 –120 –160 (Source: http://budgetresponsibility.org.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/BriefGuide_020511.pdf) Figure 6: Labour productivity per head, selected countries UK Spain France Indices: 2008 Q1(base) = 100 120 115 110 105 100 Index 95 90 85 80 75 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 (Source: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/ quarterlybulletin/2014/qb14q201.pdf) Extract C The National Living Wage (NLW) The Government has announced that from 2016 it will introduce a Living Wage Premium that will apply on top of the National Minimum Wage (NMW) for employees aged 25 and over to deliver a National Living Wage (NLW) for those people. The main NMW will continue to be set for all employees aged 21 and over, so that those aged 21 to 24 will 5 continue to be subject only to that rate. The effective minimum wage for the 25+ age group will therefore be over 13% higher in 2020 than would otherwise have been the case, and result in a 0.3% increase in wage costs overall. Further impacts on real GDP are estimated to be higher productivity (+0.3%) but lower average hours worked (-0.2%) and higher unemployment. Overall real 10 GDP is forecast to fall by 0.1% as a result of the NLW. However these forecasts depend on estimates of the likely elasticity of demand for labour. Academic evidence suggests that changes to the NMW since 1999 have led to only limited effects on demand for labour in the UK. The types of work that will be affected are relatively labour intensive, which may limit the scope for firms to substitute towards 15 using capital. Firms may also be expected to shift demand in favour of the under-25s given that they will not be subject to the NLW, which all else being equal would lead to a smaller reduction in overall labour demand. Some of the reduction in employees could also be partially offset by a rise in self-employment. But increasing the NLW to a higher proportion of median earnings may lead to bigger effects than have been experienced in 20 the past. (Sources: adapted from http://cdn.budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/ July-2015-EFO-234224.pdf and http://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/) Extract D The productivity puzzle in the UK Since the onset of the 2007–2008 financial crisis, labour productivity growth in the UK has been exceptionally weak. Despite some modest improvements in 2013, whole-economy output per hour remains around 16% below the level implied by its pre-crisis trend. Even taking into account possible measurement issues and changes 5 in the size of the service sector, this shortfall is large and is often referred to as the ‘productivity puzzle’. Measures of productivity can be used to inform estimates of an economy’s ability to grow without generating excessive inflationary pressure, which makes understanding recent movements important for the conduct of monetary policy. During the initial phases 10 of the recession, companies appear to have acted flexibly by holding on to labour and lowering levels of capacity utilisation in response to weak demand conditions. But the protracted weakness in productivity and the strength in employment growth over the past two years suggest that other factors are likely to be having a more persistent impact on the level of productivity. These factors are reduced investment in both physical and 15 intangible capital, such as innovation and training, and failings in the labour market such as immobility of labour and under-employment of skilled workers. Some economists explain this by using the concept of an output gap. (Source: adapted from http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/ Documents/quarterlybulletin/2014/qb14q201.pdf)
(d) With reference to the information provided and your own knowledge, evaluate the likely microeconomic and macroeconomic influences on the UK’s international competitiveness. (25)
June 2017 · Paper 3 · Q2(e) 25 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=8, AO4=9 25-mark essay Either/or public finances and taxation
Data and extracts for question 2The UK economy Figure 4: UK national debt as a percentage of GDP 90 Forecast 80 70 60 % of 50 GDP 40 30 20 10 0 (Source: http://budgetresponsibility.org.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/BriefGuide_020511.pdf) Figure 5: UK fiscal deficit, public sector net borrowing (PSNB) 80 Forecast 40 £ billion 0 –40 –80 –120 –160 (Source: http://budgetresponsibility.org.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/BriefGuide_020511.pdf) Figure 6: Labour productivity per head, selected countries UK Spain France Indices: 2008 Q1(base) = 100 120 115 110 105 100 Index 95 90 85 80 75 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 (Source: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/ quarterlybulletin/2014/qb14q201.pdf) Extract C The National Living Wage (NLW) The Government has announced that from 2016 it will introduce a Living Wage Premium that will apply on top of the National Minimum Wage (NMW) for employees aged 25 and over to deliver a National Living Wage (NLW) for those people. The main NMW will continue to be set for all employees aged 21 and over, so that those aged 21 to 24 will 5 continue to be subject only to that rate. The effective minimum wage for the 25+ age group will therefore be over 13% higher in 2020 than would otherwise have been the case, and result in a 0.3% increase in wage costs overall. Further impacts on real GDP are estimated to be higher productivity (+0.3%) but lower average hours worked (-0.2%) and higher unemployment. Overall real 10 GDP is forecast to fall by 0.1% as a result of the NLW. However these forecasts depend on estimates of the likely elasticity of demand for labour. Academic evidence suggests that changes to the NMW since 1999 have led to only limited effects on demand for labour in the UK. The types of work that will be affected are relatively labour intensive, which may limit the scope for firms to substitute towards 15 using capital. Firms may also be expected to shift demand in favour of the under-25s given that they will not be subject to the NLW, which all else being equal would lead to a smaller reduction in overall labour demand. Some of the reduction in employees could also be partially offset by a rise in self-employment. But increasing the NLW to a higher proportion of median earnings may lead to bigger effects than have been experienced in 20 the past. (Sources: adapted from http://cdn.budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/ July-2015-EFO-234224.pdf and http://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/) Extract D The productivity puzzle in the UK Since the onset of the 2007–2008 financial crisis, labour productivity growth in the UK has been exceptionally weak. Despite some modest improvements in 2013, whole-economy output per hour remains around 16% below the level implied by its pre-crisis trend. Even taking into account possible measurement issues and changes 5 in the size of the service sector, this shortfall is large and is often referred to as the ‘productivity puzzle’. Measures of productivity can be used to inform estimates of an economy’s ability to grow without generating excessive inflationary pressure, which makes understanding recent movements important for the conduct of monetary policy. During the initial phases 10 of the recession, companies appear to have acted flexibly by holding on to labour and lowering levels of capacity utilisation in response to weak demand conditions. But the protracted weakness in productivity and the strength in employment growth over the past two years suggest that other factors are likely to be having a more persistent impact on the level of productivity. These factors are reduced investment in both physical and 15 intangible capital, such as innovation and training, and failings in the labour market such as immobility of labour and under-employment of skilled workers. Some economists explain this by using the concept of an output gap. (Source: adapted from http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/ Documents/quarterlybulletin/2014/qb14q201.pdf)
(e) With reference to the information provided and your own knowledge, evaluate the microeconomic and macroeconomic effects of a government policy of cutting public expenditure rather than raising taxes as a means of reducing a fiscal deficit. (25)
June 2016 · AS Paper 1 · Q6(f) 20 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=6, AO4=6 20-mark essay Either/or government intervention in marketsgovernment failure
Data and extracts for question 6The market for housing Figure 1 – Estimates of the price elasticity of supply of new housing, selected countries 2.5 2.0 1.5 Price elasticity of supply 1.0 0.5 0.0 (Source: adapted from Caldera Sánchez, A. and Å. Johansson (2011), “The Price Responsiveness of Housing Supply in OECD Countries”, Figure 3, OECD Economics Department Working Papers, No. 837, OECD Publishing. http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/5kgk9qhrnn33-en) Figure 2 – Index of UK house prices (1993 = 100) 400 375 350 325 300 275 250 225 200 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 2007 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 2012 2012 2013 2013 2014 2014 2015 (Source: http://www.nationwide.co.uk/about/house-price-index/download-data#~ ) Extract A Problems facing UK first time buyers Over a third of aspiring first time buyers in the UK have given up hope of ever being able to save for a deposit to buy a property, new research has found. A deposit is the minimum amount that must be paid upfront when buying a property, which is a proportion of the price of the property. The UK Government has a Help to Buy scheme designed to help people buy a home. The 5 government subsidises the mortgage (loan) needed to buy a property, so buyers require a smaller amount saved as a deposit. Under this scheme, first time buyers need as little as a 5% deposit to qualify for a mortgage. This is due to end in the first few months of 2017. The research from mortgage insurer Genworth says this will mean a return to 20% deposits, which would see the average time needed to save for a deposit rise from three 10 years to over 10 years. “Trying to buy your first home in the current climate is like chasing a runaway train. Even with good salaries that could comfortably support a mortgage, thousands of aspiring first time buyers can only save modest sums, especially those who are already paying rent. This deposit trap is why many feel they are left with the all or nothing choice of 15 borrowing from family or waving goodbye to ever owning a home,” said Simon Crone, a vice president at Genworth. “Help to Buy has significantly improved access to mortgages with deposits that are actually realistic to save. The numbers using the scheme may be modest, but it has made significant inroads in the short-term to boost access at the lower end of the property 20 market,” he pointed out. (Source: adapted from http://www.propertywire.com/news/europe/ uk-first-time-buyers-201409309641.html September 2014) Extract B Housing and flood defences A radical new approach to housing and a £2.3 billion of investment in flood defences were announced as part of the UK Government’s new National Infrastructure Plan 2014. One key proposal is for the government to plan, build and sell homes. An initial programme on a government-owned former airfield near Cambridge will see the development of 10 000 homes. This approach will fast track the development by 5 providing certainty and making new homes available more quickly. The government will make the initial investment but expects that later costs will be met through the sale of land and homes. It will also evaluate the feasibility and economic effects of rolling out this model on a wider scale, to support and accelerate housing supply. The plan also commits to £2.3 billion of capital investment to over 1400 flood defence 10 projects in a 6-year programme of investment. As a result, over 300 000 homes will be better protected and over £30 billion of economic damages prevented. Major projects that will benefit include £42 million for the Oxford Flood Alleviation Scheme, £80 million for the Humber Estuary and over £17 million for Tonbridge, Yalding and the surrounding communities. 15 (Source: adapted from https://www.gov.uk/government/news/ambitious-plans-for-housing-flood-defence- and-roads-set-out-in-national-infrastructure-plan-2014)
(f) Evaluate the likely microeconomic effects of government intervention in the UK housing market. (20)
June 2016 · AS Paper 1 · Q6(g) 20 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=6, AO4=6 20-mark essay Either/or public goods and information gapsgovernment intervention in markets
Data and extracts for question 6The market for housing Figure 1 – Estimates of the price elasticity of supply of new housing, selected countries 2.5 2.0 1.5 Price elasticity of supply 1.0 0.5 0.0 (Source: adapted from Caldera Sánchez, A. and Å. Johansson (2011), “The Price Responsiveness of Housing Supply in OECD Countries”, Figure 3, OECD Economics Department Working Papers, No. 837, OECD Publishing. http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/5kgk9qhrnn33-en) Figure 2 – Index of UK house prices (1993 = 100) 400 375 350 325 300 275 250 225 200 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 2007 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 2012 2012 2013 2013 2014 2014 2015 (Source: http://www.nationwide.co.uk/about/house-price-index/download-data#~ ) Extract A Problems facing UK first time buyers Over a third of aspiring first time buyers in the UK have given up hope of ever being able to save for a deposit to buy a property, new research has found. A deposit is the minimum amount that must be paid upfront when buying a property, which is a proportion of the price of the property. The UK Government has a Help to Buy scheme designed to help people buy a home. The 5 government subsidises the mortgage (loan) needed to buy a property, so buyers require a smaller amount saved as a deposit. Under this scheme, first time buyers need as little as a 5% deposit to qualify for a mortgage. This is due to end in the first few months of 2017. The research from mortgage insurer Genworth says this will mean a return to 20% deposits, which would see the average time needed to save for a deposit rise from three 10 years to over 10 years. “Trying to buy your first home in the current climate is like chasing a runaway train. Even with good salaries that could comfortably support a mortgage, thousands of aspiring first time buyers can only save modest sums, especially those who are already paying rent. This deposit trap is why many feel they are left with the all or nothing choice of 15 borrowing from family or waving goodbye to ever owning a home,” said Simon Crone, a vice president at Genworth. “Help to Buy has significantly improved access to mortgages with deposits that are actually realistic to save. The numbers using the scheme may be modest, but it has made significant inroads in the short-term to boost access at the lower end of the property 20 market,” he pointed out. (Source: adapted from http://www.propertywire.com/news/europe/ uk-first-time-buyers-201409309641.html September 2014) Extract B Housing and flood defences A radical new approach to housing and a £2.3 billion of investment in flood defences were announced as part of the UK Government’s new National Infrastructure Plan 2014. One key proposal is for the government to plan, build and sell homes. An initial programme on a government-owned former airfield near Cambridge will see the development of 10 000 homes. This approach will fast track the development by 5 providing certainty and making new homes available more quickly. The government will make the initial investment but expects that later costs will be met through the sale of land and homes. It will also evaluate the feasibility and economic effects of rolling out this model on a wider scale, to support and accelerate housing supply. The plan also commits to £2.3 billion of capital investment to over 1400 flood defence 10 projects in a 6-year programme of investment. As a result, over 300 000 homes will be better protected and over £30 billion of economic damages prevented. Major projects that will benefit include £42 million for the Oxford Flood Alleviation Scheme, £80 million for the Humber Estuary and over £17 million for Tonbridge, Yalding and the surrounding communities. 15 (Source: adapted from https://www.gov.uk/government/news/ambitious-plans-for-housing-flood-defence- and-roads-set-out-in-national-infrastructure-plan-2014)
(g) Evaluate the case for government provision of goods and services such as flood defence schemes or housing. (20)
June 2016 · AS Paper 2 · Q6(f) 20 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=6, AO4=6 20-mark essay Either/or fiscal and monetary policyinflation
Data and extracts for question 6UK incomes, inflation and monetary policy Figure 1 – UK average weekly household real income 700 680 660 640 £ 620 600 580 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 (Source: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/family-spending/family-spending/ 2014-edition/rft-a44-final-2013.xls) Figure 2 – UK inflation rate as measured by percentage changes in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) 6.0 5.0 4.0 % 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 (Source: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Pages/inflationreport/2015/feb.aspx) Extract A Britons should not fear rise in interest rates The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Bank of England is prepared to raise interest rates “in the near future” if inflation increases, one of its senior policymakers has warned. Kristin Forbes, a member of the MPC, said a rise in borrowing costs would also be necessary should household debt reach unhealthy levels. However, she stressed that this was not yet a cause for concern. 5 With the UK’s base rate of interest at 0.5% and inflation at a record low and expected to be negative, the MPC is currently under no pressure to raise interest rates, despite Britain’s economic recovery. UK inflation is being driven lower by the slump in global oil prices, which have roughly halved since summer 2014, and the Bank’s governor Mark Carney warned earlier this 10 month that a strong domestic economy would translate into higher UK inflation over the medium term. “The most likely next move in monetary policy is an increase in interest rates. The message is clear,” Carney said. Forbes said that “even the more lagged effects of the rise in the value of the pound will likely peak in the first part of this year and also gradually fade. Inflation will then most 15 likely bounce back. “Since interest rates take well over a year to be fully effective, they should be adjusted to respond to inflationary risks at that time horizon – when all of these effects have diminished – rather than respond to today’s inflation.” (Source: adapted from http://www.theguardian.com/money/2015/feb/24/ britons-should-not-fear-rise-in-interest-rates- when-they-come-says-boe-member) Extract B Deflation is bad news The problem with deflation is that once you have it you can’t get rid of it. Central banks know what to do about inflation but they do not have the policy tools to deal with deflation when interest rates are almost as low as they can go. Just look at Japan, which had deflation in nine separate years from 1999-2012, with two additional years at zero, averaging minus 0.3%. The highest in any single year was minus 1.3% in 2013. 5 In the European Union (EU) in 2008, at the start of the financial crisis, there were fears of deflation but at that time central banks had the ability to cut interest rates by nearly 5 percentage points. Those fears may now be coming true, with the EU experiencing deflation of 0.5% in 2015. This was driven primarily by declines in energy prices, but there was also deflation 10 in non-energy industrial goods and telecommunications. The collapse in the cost of shipping goods potentially suggests something deeper is going on and may lead to a more persistent form of deflation than Mark Carney has currently claimed. (Source: adapted from http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/david-blanchflower/ david-blanchflower-deflation-is-bad-news--and-britain-is-likely-to-be-next-to-get-it-10078832.html)
(f) Evaluate whether the MPC has been successful in controlling the UK’s inflation rate since 2011. (20)
June 2016 · AS Paper 2 · Q6(g) 20 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=6, AO4=6 20-mark essay Either/or fiscal and monetary policy
Data and extracts for question 6UK incomes, inflation and monetary policy Figure 1 – UK average weekly household real income 700 680 660 640 £ 620 600 580 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 (Source: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/family-spending/family-spending/ 2014-edition/rft-a44-final-2013.xls) Figure 2 – UK inflation rate as measured by percentage changes in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) 6.0 5.0 4.0 % 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 (Source: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Pages/inflationreport/2015/feb.aspx) Extract A Britons should not fear rise in interest rates The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Bank of England is prepared to raise interest rates “in the near future” if inflation increases, one of its senior policymakers has warned. Kristin Forbes, a member of the MPC, said a rise in borrowing costs would also be necessary should household debt reach unhealthy levels. However, she stressed that this was not yet a cause for concern. 5 With the UK’s base rate of interest at 0.5% and inflation at a record low and expected to be negative, the MPC is currently under no pressure to raise interest rates, despite Britain’s economic recovery. UK inflation is being driven lower by the slump in global oil prices, which have roughly halved since summer 2014, and the Bank’s governor Mark Carney warned earlier this 10 month that a strong domestic economy would translate into higher UK inflation over the medium term. “The most likely next move in monetary policy is an increase in interest rates. The message is clear,” Carney said. Forbes said that “even the more lagged effects of the rise in the value of the pound will likely peak in the first part of this year and also gradually fade. Inflation will then most 15 likely bounce back. “Since interest rates take well over a year to be fully effective, they should be adjusted to respond to inflationary risks at that time horizon – when all of these effects have diminished – rather than respond to today’s inflation.” (Source: adapted from http://www.theguardian.com/money/2015/feb/24/ britons-should-not-fear-rise-in-interest-rates- when-they-come-says-boe-member) Extract B Deflation is bad news The problem with deflation is that once you have it you can’t get rid of it. Central banks know what to do about inflation but they do not have the policy tools to deal with deflation when interest rates are almost as low as they can go. Just look at Japan, which had deflation in nine separate years from 1999-2012, with two additional years at zero, averaging minus 0.3%. The highest in any single year was minus 1.3% in 2013. 5 In the European Union (EU) in 2008, at the start of the financial crisis, there were fears of deflation but at that time central banks had the ability to cut interest rates by nearly 5 percentage points. Those fears may now be coming true, with the EU experiencing deflation of 0.5% in 2015. This was driven primarily by declines in energy prices, but there was also deflation 10 in non-energy industrial goods and telecommunications. The collapse in the cost of shipping goods potentially suggests something deeper is going on and may lead to a more persistent form of deflation than Mark Carney has currently claimed. (Source: adapted from http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/david-blanchflower/ david-blanchflower-deflation-is-bad-news--and-britain-is-likely-to-be-next-to-get-it-10078832.html)
(g) Evaluate demand-side policy responses to the Global Financial Crisis of 2008. (20)

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