Emerging and developing economies Theme 4

Where it is examined
A-level Paper 2 (and Paper 3)
Level
A level only
Specification
Section 4.3, 3 statements
Since 2016
30 question parts: 6 essays, 18 levels-marked responses, 1 multiple-choice items

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SeriesPaperQMarksTitle
June 2025Paper 2825In Sudan, public services such as healthcare are struggling to keep running. Power outages, blocking of internet access, and fuel shortages, will mean hospitals struggle to operate. Many of the hospitals in the capital city, Khartoum, have reported shortages of doctors, blood, transfusion equipment, medical supplies, and other skilled workers and commodities. (Source adapted from: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/ PIIS0140‑6736(23)00858‑9/fulltext) Evaluate the possible factors influencing the level of economic development in a developing country of your choice.
June 2025Paper 32(e)25Evaluate the microeconomic and macroeconomic effects of rapid increases in population in India.
June 2022Paper 32(e)25Evaluate the microeconomic and macroeconomic strategies that could be used to promote development in Kenya, or another developing country of your choice.
June 2019Paper 32(d)25Evaluate the microeconomic and macroeconomic factors, apart from access to credit and banking, influencing growth and development in Mozambique.
June 2018Paper 32(d)25With reference to the information provided and your own knowledge, evaluate the microeconomic and macroeconomic effects on Indonesia of the volatility of prices of commodities such as coal.
June 2017Paper 31(d)25With reference to the information provided and your own knowledge, evaluate the microeconomic and macroeconomic effects of policies that could be used to stimulate economic growth and development in Chile.

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June 2025 · Paper 2 · Q1(a) 1 mark Multiple choice
Data and extracts for question 11 Selected economic data on Morocco and Pakistan, 2021, constant values. Gross national income Gross domestic product Human development (GNI) per capita (GDP) per capita index (HDI) (2017 PPP US$) (US$) Morocco 0.683 7 303 3 290.6 Pakistan 0.544 4 624 1 473.9 (Source adapted from: https://hdr.undp.org)
(a) With reference to the table above, which one of the following is correct? (1) A Average incomes are lower in Morocco than in Pakistan B Economic development, as measured by the HDI, is higher in Morocco than in Pakistan C Life expectancy in Morocco is 68.3 years D Total output in Morocco is higher than in Pakistan
June 2025 · Paper 2 · Q8 25 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=8, AO4=9 25-mark essay Either/or
8 In Sudan, public services such as healthcare are struggling to keep running. Power outages, blocking of internet access, and fuel shortages, will mean hospitals struggle to operate. Many of the hospitals in the capital city, Khartoum, have reported shortages of doctors, blood, transfusion equipment, medical supplies, and other skilled workers and commodities. (Source adapted from: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/ PIIS0140‑6736(23)00858‑9/fulltext) Evaluate the possible factors influencing the level of economic development in a developing country of your choice.
June 2025 · Paper 3 · Q2(b) 8 marks AO1=2, AO2=2, AO3=2, AO4=2 8-mark response
Data and extracts for question 2Sources for use with SECTION B Read Figure 3 and the following Extracts (E to G) before answering Question 2. The economy of India Figure 3: Selected economic data for India, 2006–2021 Human GDP per capita % people living in Year Development (US$) absolute poverty Index (HDI) value 2006 820.0 0.611 55.1 2016 1 714.3 0.624 27.7 2021 2 238.1 0.633 16.4 (Source adapted from: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1272613/india-multidimensional- poverty-index/; https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/; UN Human Development Reports) Extract E 135 million Indians escape absolute poverty in recent years Absolute poverty in India, measured by the number of people living on under US$2.15 a day, has fallen dramatically over the last 15 years. The government’s dedicated focus on improving access to sanitation, nutrition, cooking oil, banking services, drinking water and electricity has led to significant advances in these 5 areas. The $2.3 million provision of subsidised cooking oil has positively transformed lives, with a 14.6 percentage points improvement in the access to cooking oil. (Source adapted from: https://pib.gov.in/) Extract F Buffer stocks in India The Indian government is required to maintain a buffer stock of 11 million tonnes of wheat and 10 million tonnes of rice. The grains are purchased from farmers at the minimum support price and stored in secure warehouses across the country. India, once troubled by famine, has more recently managed to remain self-sufficient in 5 most food categories except edible oils, and is the world’s largest rice exporter. Even during the global health crisis 2020-2022, when the government distributed free food to nearly 800 million people, buffer stocks ran down but not out. Farmers are encouraged to produce more without any consideration of sustainability. (Source adapted from: https://ig.ft.com/india-population/) Extract G Population growth in India “The greatest obstacle in the path of overall economic development is the alarming rate of population growth,” was one Indian government minister’s view in 1967. In the 1970s, the Indian government took radical measures to try to prevent population growth, with little success. 5 Then, in the 1980s and 1990s, India began opening up its economy to the private sector. Policymakers began viewing a growing young population in the form of the so-called demographic dividend – when a majority of a country’s population is of working age (15-64 years) – as an engine for further economic development. In May 2023 India took over from China as the country with the highest population reaching 1.4 billion. However, 10 it needs enough well-paying jobs designed to serve the modern, urban economy. (Source adapted from: https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2023/4/18/overtaking-chinas- population-will-india-gain-or-lose)
(b) Examine two advantages of using the Human Development Index (HDI) to measure the level of economic development in India. (8)
June 2025 · Paper 3 · Q2(c) 12 marks AO1=2, AO2=2, AO3=4, AO4=4 12-mark response
Data and extracts for question 2Sources for use with SECTION B Read Figure 3 and the following Extracts (E to G) before answering Question 2. The economy of India Figure 3: Selected economic data for India, 2006–2021 Human GDP per capita % people living in Year Development (US$) absolute poverty Index (HDI) value 2006 820.0 0.611 55.1 2016 1 714.3 0.624 27.7 2021 2 238.1 0.633 16.4 (Source adapted from: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1272613/india-multidimensional- poverty-index/; https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/; UN Human Development Reports) Extract E 135 million Indians escape absolute poverty in recent years Absolute poverty in India, measured by the number of people living on under US$2.15 a day, has fallen dramatically over the last 15 years. The government’s dedicated focus on improving access to sanitation, nutrition, cooking oil, banking services, drinking water and electricity has led to significant advances in these 5 areas. The $2.3 million provision of subsidised cooking oil has positively transformed lives, with a 14.6 percentage points improvement in the access to cooking oil. (Source adapted from: https://pib.gov.in/) Extract F Buffer stocks in India The Indian government is required to maintain a buffer stock of 11 million tonnes of wheat and 10 million tonnes of rice. The grains are purchased from farmers at the minimum support price and stored in secure warehouses across the country. India, once troubled by famine, has more recently managed to remain self-sufficient in 5 most food categories except edible oils, and is the world’s largest rice exporter. Even during the global health crisis 2020-2022, when the government distributed free food to nearly 800 million people, buffer stocks ran down but not out. Farmers are encouraged to produce more without any consideration of sustainability. (Source adapted from: https://ig.ft.com/india-population/) Extract G Population growth in India “The greatest obstacle in the path of overall economic development is the alarming rate of population growth,” was one Indian government minister’s view in 1967. In the 1970s, the Indian government took radical measures to try to prevent population growth, with little success. 5 Then, in the 1980s and 1990s, India began opening up its economy to the private sector. Policymakers began viewing a growing young population in the form of the so-called demographic dividend – when a majority of a country’s population is of working age (15-64 years) – as an engine for further economic development. In May 2023 India took over from China as the country with the highest population reaching 1.4 billion. However, 10 it needs enough well-paying jobs designed to serve the modern, urban economy. (Source adapted from: https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2023/4/18/overtaking-chinas- population-will-india-gain-or-lose)
(c) With reference to Extract F, discuss the problems that might be involved with the buffer stock system in India. (12)
June 2025 · Paper 3 · Q2(e) 25 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=8, AO4=9 25-mark essay Either/or
Data and extracts for question 2Sources for use with SECTION B Read Figure 3 and the following Extracts (E to G) before answering Question 2. The economy of India Figure 3: Selected economic data for India, 2006–2021 Human GDP per capita % people living in Year Development (US$) absolute poverty Index (HDI) value 2006 820.0 0.611 55.1 2016 1 714.3 0.624 27.7 2021 2 238.1 0.633 16.4 (Source adapted from: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1272613/india-multidimensional- poverty-index/; https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/; UN Human Development Reports) Extract E 135 million Indians escape absolute poverty in recent years Absolute poverty in India, measured by the number of people living on under US$2.15 a day, has fallen dramatically over the last 15 years. The government’s dedicated focus on improving access to sanitation, nutrition, cooking oil, banking services, drinking water and electricity has led to significant advances in these 5 areas. The $2.3 million provision of subsidised cooking oil has positively transformed lives, with a 14.6 percentage points improvement in the access to cooking oil. (Source adapted from: https://pib.gov.in/) Extract F Buffer stocks in India The Indian government is required to maintain a buffer stock of 11 million tonnes of wheat and 10 million tonnes of rice. The grains are purchased from farmers at the minimum support price and stored in secure warehouses across the country. India, once troubled by famine, has more recently managed to remain self-sufficient in 5 most food categories except edible oils, and is the world’s largest rice exporter. Even during the global health crisis 2020-2022, when the government distributed free food to nearly 800 million people, buffer stocks ran down but not out. Farmers are encouraged to produce more without any consideration of sustainability. (Source adapted from: https://ig.ft.com/india-population/) Extract G Population growth in India “The greatest obstacle in the path of overall economic development is the alarming rate of population growth,” was one Indian government minister’s view in 1967. In the 1970s, the Indian government took radical measures to try to prevent population growth, with little success. 5 Then, in the 1980s and 1990s, India began opening up its economy to the private sector. Policymakers began viewing a growing young population in the form of the so-called demographic dividend – when a majority of a country’s population is of working age (15-64 years) – as an engine for further economic development. In May 2023 India took over from China as the country with the highest population reaching 1.4 billion. However, 10 it needs enough well-paying jobs designed to serve the modern, urban economy. (Source adapted from: https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2023/4/18/overtaking-chinas- population-will-india-gain-or-lose)
(e) Evaluate the microeconomic and macroeconomic effects of rapid increases in population in India. (25)
June 2024 · Paper 3 · Q2(b) 8 marks AO1=2, AO2=2, AO3=2, AO4=2 8-mark response
Data and extracts for question 2Ghana – cocoa and chocolate production Figure 3: World’s largest cocoa growers and chocolate producers Cocoa growers Chocolate producers Ivory Coast 46% Germany 17% Ghana 18% Belgium 11% Indonesia 14% Italy 7.4% Nigeria 7% US 7.2% (Source: adapted from International Cocoa Association www.icco.org December 2021 and The Telegraph.co.uk accessed 24/2/22) Extract D From a managed to a floating exchange rate Ghana’s currency, the cedi, has depreciated significantly against major currencies, especially the US dollar (US$), since the adoption of the floating exchange rate system in 1992. From 1983 to 1992 it operated a managed exchange rate. Since the liberalisation of the foreign exchange market there have substantial swings and on average the cedi has 5 depreciated 98% against the US dollar. The cedi to US dollar rate has been very volatile recently, causing macroeconomic instability and limiting economic growth. (Source adapted from: https://www.theigc.org/project/on-the-causes-and-effect-of- exchange-rate-volatility-on-economic-growth-evidence-from-ghana/ and https://www.scirp.org/journal/paperinformation.aspx?paperid=95492) Extract E There is a lot of money in chocolate but the growers of cocoa see very little of it. In 2020 the chocolate retail industry was worth £78 billion, but Ghana – the world’s second largest cocoa producer – earned just over £1 billion. Cocoa farmers in Ghana now make roughly $1 a day (this often includes being subsidised by the Ghanaian government). This is a familiar pattern for many African countries where the economy 5 is still shaped by a colonial relationship in which they export commodities to be processed elsewhere. Ghana currently processes about 30% of its cocoa crop into chocolate, meaning that the exports can earn high prices. Despite plans for expanding the domestic chocolate industry there are still many obstacles in the way. The equipment to make chocolate is 10 very expensive and there is neither a local sugar nor dairy industry. Imported milk and sugar would increase the cost of production significantly, with the added problem that foreign currency would be needed. Producing chocolate requires consistent refrigeration, and the high cost of the equipment to achieve that is a major obstacle for entrepreneurs without substantial funds. There is an inconsistent supply of energy in rural parts of 15 Ghana. An alternative, making teas and wines using cocoa, can make 20 times more revenue than the raw beans, but they do not have the mass market appeal and high profits of chocolate. Access to funds is a big problem and one farmer, Nana Aduna, says that high interest rates on bank loans are an issue for start-up businesses and at the moment he cannot 20 afford to borrow money. “You cannot grow a business when you have to service interest rates of 18%–20% or even more,” he says. But the government has pledged to address these structural issues, using supply side policies. The Trade and Industry Minister announced that industrialisation is the focus of government policy. “It only makes sense that the most important commodity in 25 our country, which is cocoa… should become the target for a major programme of industrialisation,” he says. The ‘One District One Factory’ programme aims to kickstart industrialisation by providing the infrastructure for Ghana’s farms, by establishing processing plants in some of the big cocoa-growing areas. It has become easier for the private sector to invest in food 30 processing, and there is a big tax rebate available to processing companies that set up in the country’s enterprise zones – designated areas to encourage economic activity – in a bid to help them export. (Source: adapted from https://www.newsbreak.com/news/2201853748349/ghana-s- farmers-eye-sweet-success-from-chocolate and https://www.indepthnews.net/ index.php/the-world/africa/4495-ghana-starts-with-cocoa-to-end-neocolonial- trading-ties and https://www.brookings.edu/blog/africa-in-focus/2020/09/03/ pathways-to-structural-transformation-of-the-ghanaian-economy-and- some-roadblocks/ and https://www.ghanaweb.com/GhanaHomePage/ business/Speculators-driving-interbank-retail-FX-rates-gap-1468375) Extract F A new trade bloc for Africa The African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) has been signed by all 55 member states of the African Union, including Ghana, Nigeria, and South Africa. This brings together 1.2 billion people with a combined gross domestic product (GDP) of more than $2 trillion as of 2023. 5 The agreement commits countries to removing tariffs on 90% of goods, with other goods to be phased in later. The agreement also liberalises services and aims to tackle non-tariff barriers which reduce trade between African countries, such as long delays at the borders. (Source adapted from: https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2018/3/20/ african-continental-free-trade-area-what-you-need-to-know)
(b) With reference to the second paragraph of Extract E, examine two likely problems for the expansion of the chocolate industry in Ghana. (8)
June 2023 · Paper 2 · Q6(b) 8 marks AO1=2, AO2=2, AO3=2, AO4=2 8-mark response
Data and extracts for question 6Trade and development in Africa Figure 1: Intra- and extra-regional exports as a percentage of total exports, 2020 Europe Asia North America Africa Latin America/Caribbean 0 20 40 60 80 100 (%) Intra: within a region Extra: outside a region (Source: adapted from https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2022/03/26/ why-it-costs-so-much-to-move-goods-around-africa) Extract A: Why it costs so much to move goods around Africa Lorries carrying, among other things, cobalt from Congo, copper from Zambia and tea from Malawi queued for miles as they waited to cross the Limpopo river into South Africa. Many were there for days. Some drivers bribe their way to the front; 1 000 rand (£49) is the going rate. Others cannot afford to. 5 African politicians say they want to end such delays. The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) regional trade agreement, so far agreed by 41 of Africa’s 55 countries, could boost the region’s economies by making it easier to trade between themselves. In 2020 just 18% of exports were to other African countries (see Figure 1), lower than the equivalent in North America (30%), Asia (58%) or Europe (68%). More trade within the 10 region could lead to more jobs, higher wages and less poverty. The AfCFTA pledges to improve trade in two ways. The first is by reducing tariffs. This could boost intra‑African trade by 15% to 25%, says the IMF. The second is to reduce non‑tariff barriers which could cause a 50% rise in intra‑African trade. Poor infrastructure is a major barrier to trade. Africa’s land area is bigger than China, 15 India, the United States and much of Europe combined. Yet its railway network is not very much bigger than France’s and Germany’s put together. Many lines were built by colonial companies to link mines to ports, rather than countries to one another. Newer Chinese‑built railways across African borders are under‑used, either because they struggle to compete on price with road transport or because they lack additional services 20 such as storage yards. Ports are small and slow. Cargo waits for more than two weeks on average, compared to less than a week in Asia, Europe and Latin America. Handling costs are around 50% higher than in other parts of the world. Nearly 90% of transport of goods goes by road, of which there are not enough. Road 25 quality is poor. Just 800 000 km of the total of 2.8 million km in sub‑Saharan Africa are paved. The IMF estimates that if the quality of Africa’s infrastructure were brought up to the global average this would increase intra‑African trade by 7%. However, even bigger gains could be made by improving how trade flows. The key problem is a lack of information. 30 In much of the world large firms can buy space on trains or lorries as they need it. But in Africa, where markets for this do not exist, firms such as miners have to sign long‑term contracts with larger transport firms in which they agree to pay for capacity, whether they use it all or not. (Source: adapted from https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2022/03/26/ why-it-costs-so-much-to-move-goods-around-africa) Extract B: Economic reform in Angola When the new president, João Lourenço, took power in the southern African country of Angola in 2017, he pledged to reform the economy. This is a challenging task. The oil industry accounts for nearly all of Angola’s exports and two‑thirds of government revenues. The government is heavily involved in oil production along with significant 5 foreign direct investment from international firms such as Chevron and Total. Declining production and falling oil prices brought about a collapse in GDP and rapidly rising debts to China and the IMF. To reduce the cost of debt repayments, improve the country’s fiscal position, and support a steadily declining debt‑to‑GDP ratio, the government of Angola has opted for debt 10 relief. Together with a complete stop on debt repayments for the next three years, Angola will gain additional cash flow of $6.9 billion in 2020–22. This will help bring Angola’s total annual borrowing to a much more manageable level of around 8.7% of GDP. With improved finances the government will have more money to spend supporting the economy and providing vital public services to its citizens, over 17 million of whom still 15 live in absolute poverty. The IMF, which has since 2018 agreed to lend $4.5 billion to Angola, is also encouraged by the country’s fiscal policies. The finance minister, Vera Daves de Sousa, wants the state oil firm to sell shares to the public and for over one hundred state firms to be privatised. There have been delays – just 34 sales have taken place so far. But, she says, private firms 20 must be the ‘main driver’ of growth and the economy must diversify away from oil. Since 2019 Angola has ended government intervention in the foreign exchange market and moved towards a floating exchange rate. This led to a rapid depreciation in the kwanza (the Angolan currency) before stabilising after a few months. (Sources: adapted from https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2021/02/20/ joao-lourencos-reforms-in-angola-are-pleasing-the-imf, https://www.cabri-sbo.org/en/ blog/2021/country-spotlight-angolas-commitment-to-prudent-and-proactive-public-debt- management, and https://www.focus-economics.com/countries/angola/news/special/ kwanza-dives-to-all-time-low-as-central-bank-floats-the-currency)
(b) With reference to Extract A, examine two causes of the high cost of transporting goods between African countries. (8)
June 2023 · Paper 2 · Q6(c) 12 marks AO1=2, AO2=2, AO3=4, AO4=4 12-mark response
Data and extracts for question 6Trade and development in Africa Figure 1: Intra- and extra-regional exports as a percentage of total exports, 2020 Europe Asia North America Africa Latin America/Caribbean 0 20 40 60 80 100 (%) Intra: within a region Extra: outside a region (Source: adapted from https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2022/03/26/ why-it-costs-so-much-to-move-goods-around-africa) Extract A: Why it costs so much to move goods around Africa Lorries carrying, among other things, cobalt from Congo, copper from Zambia and tea from Malawi queued for miles as they waited to cross the Limpopo river into South Africa. Many were there for days. Some drivers bribe their way to the front; 1 000 rand (£49) is the going rate. Others cannot afford to. 5 African politicians say they want to end such delays. The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) regional trade agreement, so far agreed by 41 of Africa’s 55 countries, could boost the region’s economies by making it easier to trade between themselves. In 2020 just 18% of exports were to other African countries (see Figure 1), lower than the equivalent in North America (30%), Asia (58%) or Europe (68%). More trade within the 10 region could lead to more jobs, higher wages and less poverty. The AfCFTA pledges to improve trade in two ways. The first is by reducing tariffs. This could boost intra‑African trade by 15% to 25%, says the IMF. The second is to reduce non‑tariff barriers which could cause a 50% rise in intra‑African trade. Poor infrastructure is a major barrier to trade. Africa’s land area is bigger than China, 15 India, the United States and much of Europe combined. Yet its railway network is not very much bigger than France’s and Germany’s put together. Many lines were built by colonial companies to link mines to ports, rather than countries to one another. Newer Chinese‑built railways across African borders are under‑used, either because they struggle to compete on price with road transport or because they lack additional services 20 such as storage yards. Ports are small and slow. Cargo waits for more than two weeks on average, compared to less than a week in Asia, Europe and Latin America. Handling costs are around 50% higher than in other parts of the world. Nearly 90% of transport of goods goes by road, of which there are not enough. Road 25 quality is poor. Just 800 000 km of the total of 2.8 million km in sub‑Saharan Africa are paved. The IMF estimates that if the quality of Africa’s infrastructure were brought up to the global average this would increase intra‑African trade by 7%. However, even bigger gains could be made by improving how trade flows. The key problem is a lack of information. 30 In much of the world large firms can buy space on trains or lorries as they need it. But in Africa, where markets for this do not exist, firms such as miners have to sign long‑term contracts with larger transport firms in which they agree to pay for capacity, whether they use it all or not. (Source: adapted from https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2022/03/26/ why-it-costs-so-much-to-move-goods-around-africa) Extract B: Economic reform in Angola When the new president, João Lourenço, took power in the southern African country of Angola in 2017, he pledged to reform the economy. This is a challenging task. The oil industry accounts for nearly all of Angola’s exports and two‑thirds of government revenues. The government is heavily involved in oil production along with significant 5 foreign direct investment from international firms such as Chevron and Total. Declining production and falling oil prices brought about a collapse in GDP and rapidly rising debts to China and the IMF. To reduce the cost of debt repayments, improve the country’s fiscal position, and support a steadily declining debt‑to‑GDP ratio, the government of Angola has opted for debt 10 relief. Together with a complete stop on debt repayments for the next three years, Angola will gain additional cash flow of $6.9 billion in 2020–22. This will help bring Angola’s total annual borrowing to a much more manageable level of around 8.7% of GDP. With improved finances the government will have more money to spend supporting the economy and providing vital public services to its citizens, over 17 million of whom still 15 live in absolute poverty. The IMF, which has since 2018 agreed to lend $4.5 billion to Angola, is also encouraged by the country’s fiscal policies. The finance minister, Vera Daves de Sousa, wants the state oil firm to sell shares to the public and for over one hundred state firms to be privatised. There have been delays – just 34 sales have taken place so far. But, she says, private firms 20 must be the ‘main driver’ of growth and the economy must diversify away from oil. Since 2019 Angola has ended government intervention in the foreign exchange market and moved towards a floating exchange rate. This led to a rapid depreciation in the kwanza (the Angolan currency) before stabilising after a few months. (Sources: adapted from https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2021/02/20/ joao-lourencos-reforms-in-angola-are-pleasing-the-imf, https://www.cabri-sbo.org/en/ blog/2021/country-spotlight-angolas-commitment-to-prudent-and-proactive-public-debt- management, and https://www.focus-economics.com/countries/angola/news/special/ kwanza-dives-to-all-time-low-as-central-bank-floats-the-currency)
(c) Discuss the impact of improved transport links between African countries on economic growth rates. (12)
June 2023 · Paper 2 · Q6(d) 10 marks AO1=2, AO2=2, AO3=2, AO4=4 10-mark response
Data and extracts for question 6Trade and development in Africa Figure 1: Intra- and extra-regional exports as a percentage of total exports, 2020 Europe Asia North America Africa Latin America/Caribbean 0 20 40 60 80 100 (%) Intra: within a region Extra: outside a region (Source: adapted from https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2022/03/26/ why-it-costs-so-much-to-move-goods-around-africa) Extract A: Why it costs so much to move goods around Africa Lorries carrying, among other things, cobalt from Congo, copper from Zambia and tea from Malawi queued for miles as they waited to cross the Limpopo river into South Africa. Many were there for days. Some drivers bribe their way to the front; 1 000 rand (£49) is the going rate. Others cannot afford to. 5 African politicians say they want to end such delays. The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) regional trade agreement, so far agreed by 41 of Africa’s 55 countries, could boost the region’s economies by making it easier to trade between themselves. In 2020 just 18% of exports were to other African countries (see Figure 1), lower than the equivalent in North America (30%), Asia (58%) or Europe (68%). More trade within the 10 region could lead to more jobs, higher wages and less poverty. The AfCFTA pledges to improve trade in two ways. The first is by reducing tariffs. This could boost intra‑African trade by 15% to 25%, says the IMF. The second is to reduce non‑tariff barriers which could cause a 50% rise in intra‑African trade. Poor infrastructure is a major barrier to trade. Africa’s land area is bigger than China, 15 India, the United States and much of Europe combined. Yet its railway network is not very much bigger than France’s and Germany’s put together. Many lines were built by colonial companies to link mines to ports, rather than countries to one another. Newer Chinese‑built railways across African borders are under‑used, either because they struggle to compete on price with road transport or because they lack additional services 20 such as storage yards. Ports are small and slow. Cargo waits for more than two weeks on average, compared to less than a week in Asia, Europe and Latin America. Handling costs are around 50% higher than in other parts of the world. Nearly 90% of transport of goods goes by road, of which there are not enough. Road 25 quality is poor. Just 800 000 km of the total of 2.8 million km in sub‑Saharan Africa are paved. The IMF estimates that if the quality of Africa’s infrastructure were brought up to the global average this would increase intra‑African trade by 7%. However, even bigger gains could be made by improving how trade flows. The key problem is a lack of information. 30 In much of the world large firms can buy space on trains or lorries as they need it. But in Africa, where markets for this do not exist, firms such as miners have to sign long‑term contracts with larger transport firms in which they agree to pay for capacity, whether they use it all or not. (Source: adapted from https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2022/03/26/ why-it-costs-so-much-to-move-goods-around-africa) Extract B: Economic reform in Angola When the new president, João Lourenço, took power in the southern African country of Angola in 2017, he pledged to reform the economy. This is a challenging task. The oil industry accounts for nearly all of Angola’s exports and two‑thirds of government revenues. The government is heavily involved in oil production along with significant 5 foreign direct investment from international firms such as Chevron and Total. Declining production and falling oil prices brought about a collapse in GDP and rapidly rising debts to China and the IMF. To reduce the cost of debt repayments, improve the country’s fiscal position, and support a steadily declining debt‑to‑GDP ratio, the government of Angola has opted for debt 10 relief. Together with a complete stop on debt repayments for the next three years, Angola will gain additional cash flow of $6.9 billion in 2020–22. This will help bring Angola’s total annual borrowing to a much more manageable level of around 8.7% of GDP. With improved finances the government will have more money to spend supporting the economy and providing vital public services to its citizens, over 17 million of whom still 15 live in absolute poverty. The IMF, which has since 2018 agreed to lend $4.5 billion to Angola, is also encouraged by the country’s fiscal policies. The finance minister, Vera Daves de Sousa, wants the state oil firm to sell shares to the public and for over one hundred state firms to be privatised. There have been delays – just 34 sales have taken place so far. But, she says, private firms 20 must be the ‘main driver’ of growth and the economy must diversify away from oil. Since 2019 Angola has ended government intervention in the foreign exchange market and moved towards a floating exchange rate. This led to a rapid depreciation in the kwanza (the Angolan currency) before stabilising after a few months. (Sources: adapted from https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2021/02/20/ joao-lourencos-reforms-in-angola-are-pleasing-the-imf, https://www.cabri-sbo.org/en/ blog/2021/country-spotlight-angolas-commitment-to-prudent-and-proactive-public-debt- management, and https://www.focus-economics.com/countries/angola/news/special/ kwanza-dives-to-all-time-low-as-central-bank-floats-the-currency)
(d) Assess two likely benefits of debt relief to Angola. Refer to Extract B in your answer. (10)
June 2023 · Paper 2 · Q6(e) 15 marks AO1=3, AO2=3, AO3=3, AO4=6 15-mark response
Data and extracts for question 6Trade and development in Africa Figure 1: Intra- and extra-regional exports as a percentage of total exports, 2020 Europe Asia North America Africa Latin America/Caribbean 0 20 40 60 80 100 (%) Intra: within a region Extra: outside a region (Source: adapted from https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2022/03/26/ why-it-costs-so-much-to-move-goods-around-africa) Extract A: Why it costs so much to move goods around Africa Lorries carrying, among other things, cobalt from Congo, copper from Zambia and tea from Malawi queued for miles as they waited to cross the Limpopo river into South Africa. Many were there for days. Some drivers bribe their way to the front; 1 000 rand (£49) is the going rate. Others cannot afford to. 5 African politicians say they want to end such delays. The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) regional trade agreement, so far agreed by 41 of Africa’s 55 countries, could boost the region’s economies by making it easier to trade between themselves. In 2020 just 18% of exports were to other African countries (see Figure 1), lower than the equivalent in North America (30%), Asia (58%) or Europe (68%). More trade within the 10 region could lead to more jobs, higher wages and less poverty. The AfCFTA pledges to improve trade in two ways. The first is by reducing tariffs. This could boost intra‑African trade by 15% to 25%, says the IMF. The second is to reduce non‑tariff barriers which could cause a 50% rise in intra‑African trade. Poor infrastructure is a major barrier to trade. Africa’s land area is bigger than China, 15 India, the United States and much of Europe combined. Yet its railway network is not very much bigger than France’s and Germany’s put together. Many lines were built by colonial companies to link mines to ports, rather than countries to one another. Newer Chinese‑built railways across African borders are under‑used, either because they struggle to compete on price with road transport or because they lack additional services 20 such as storage yards. Ports are small and slow. Cargo waits for more than two weeks on average, compared to less than a week in Asia, Europe and Latin America. Handling costs are around 50% higher than in other parts of the world. Nearly 90% of transport of goods goes by road, of which there are not enough. Road 25 quality is poor. Just 800 000 km of the total of 2.8 million km in sub‑Saharan Africa are paved. The IMF estimates that if the quality of Africa’s infrastructure were brought up to the global average this would increase intra‑African trade by 7%. However, even bigger gains could be made by improving how trade flows. The key problem is a lack of information. 30 In much of the world large firms can buy space on trains or lorries as they need it. But in Africa, where markets for this do not exist, firms such as miners have to sign long‑term contracts with larger transport firms in which they agree to pay for capacity, whether they use it all or not. (Source: adapted from https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2022/03/26/ why-it-costs-so-much-to-move-goods-around-africa) Extract B: Economic reform in Angola When the new president, João Lourenço, took power in the southern African country of Angola in 2017, he pledged to reform the economy. This is a challenging task. The oil industry accounts for nearly all of Angola’s exports and two‑thirds of government revenues. The government is heavily involved in oil production along with significant 5 foreign direct investment from international firms such as Chevron and Total. Declining production and falling oil prices brought about a collapse in GDP and rapidly rising debts to China and the IMF. To reduce the cost of debt repayments, improve the country’s fiscal position, and support a steadily declining debt‑to‑GDP ratio, the government of Angola has opted for debt 10 relief. Together with a complete stop on debt repayments for the next three years, Angola will gain additional cash flow of $6.9 billion in 2020–22. This will help bring Angola’s total annual borrowing to a much more manageable level of around 8.7% of GDP. With improved finances the government will have more money to spend supporting the economy and providing vital public services to its citizens, over 17 million of whom still 15 live in absolute poverty. The IMF, which has since 2018 agreed to lend $4.5 billion to Angola, is also encouraged by the country’s fiscal policies. The finance minister, Vera Daves de Sousa, wants the state oil firm to sell shares to the public and for over one hundred state firms to be privatised. There have been delays – just 34 sales have taken place so far. But, she says, private firms 20 must be the ‘main driver’ of growth and the economy must diversify away from oil. Since 2019 Angola has ended government intervention in the foreign exchange market and moved towards a floating exchange rate. This led to a rapid depreciation in the kwanza (the Angolan currency) before stabilising after a few months. (Sources: adapted from https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2021/02/20/ joao-lourencos-reforms-in-angola-are-pleasing-the-imf, https://www.cabri-sbo.org/en/ blog/2021/country-spotlight-angolas-commitment-to-prudent-and-proactive-public-debt- management, and https://www.focus-economics.com/countries/angola/news/special/ kwanza-dives-to-all-time-low-as-central-bank-floats-the-currency)
(e) Discuss market-orientated strategies the Angolan government could use to improve development. (15)
June 2022 · Paper 3 · Q2(a) 5 marks AO1=2, AO2=2, AO3=1 Short answer Hard
Data and extracts for question 2Sub‑Saharan Africa – growth and development Figure 2: Kenya population, millions, 1960 to 2020 60 53.7 50 42.0 40 millions 32.0 30 23.7 20 16.4 11.3 8.1 10 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 (Source: adapted from Population, total ‑ Kenya | Data (worldbank.org)) Extract D Growth and development in Africa: 'Africa has a massive opportunity as a low‑cost provider of services' The outlook for Africa’s economies is not as simple as the Lewis model of growth and development implies: do more manufacturing or stay poor. Many countries are expanding into areas that economists are starting to call 'industries without smoking 5 chimneys'. Some, such as flower‑exports, may not be classified as manufactured goods in export statistics. But the process of producing flowers looks a lot like factory work and demands many of the same management skills. These industries also deliver many of the benefits of normal manufacturing, including many well‑paid jobs, and greater opportunities. 10 (Source: adapted from https://www.economist.com/special‑report/2020/03/26/many‑of- africas-economies‑are‑doing‑well) Extract E The demography of Kenya – ‘Demography will shape Africa’s future’ Falling birth rates, when accompanied by rising literacy, can help kick‑start growth. In Kenya 39% of the population is below the age of 15, falling from 43% in 2009. The labour force (15–64 years) is 57% and is the fastest growing population group. 6% of the population is over the age of 60. The number of children per family has fallen sharply, 5 from 8.1 children in 1978 to 4.6 children in 2008, and it is projected to possibly reach 2.4 children by 2050. In the 1970s little more than half of children in sub‑Saharan Africa were enrolled in primary school. That share has shot up to almost 100%. The statistic is slightly misleading, since the percentage of children regularly attending schools is nearer 60%. 10 Why does Kenya’s population continue to rise rapidly, while family size declines? There are two reasons. First, due to high fertility in previous decades, there are many more families in Kenya today. So even though families are smaller, the total number of children continues to grow. Second, Kenyans are living longer, with better healthcare – for example, polio was eradicated in 2014. Life expectancy is projected to increase from 15 54 years today to 68 years by 2050. 28% of Kenya is urbanised, and is becoming rapidly more so. By the 2030s it is expected that 36% of Kenyans will live in towns or cities rather than the poorer rural areas. Rich countries are urban countries. No country has ever reached high income levels with low urbanisation. Large urban centres have two distinct economic advantages. First, as more 20 people interact, there is more scope for innovation. Young people need jobs, but they also create jobs. Kenya has an educated workforce and a dynamic service industry, which typically has lower barriers of entry than agriculture or manufacturing, and provides opportunities for young entrepreneurs. Second, larger groups of population living in close proximity allow for economies of scale. 25 In light of these facts, Kenya’s future pattern of population growth can be a force of good. A large urbanising and well‑educated population tends to generate a strong middle class and vibrant private sector. Economic development may be easier to achieve and sustain – though it is not guaranteed. (Source: adapted from https://www.economist.com/special‑report/2020/03/26/ africas‑population‑will‑double‑by‑2050 and https://kenya.unfpa.org/sites/default/files/pub‑pdf/state_of_kenya_population_ report_2020.pdf and https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/opinion/2010/04/28/ demographic‑transition‑growth‑kenya) Extract F Kenya has an absolute advantage in cut flowers In the UK, 80% of cut flowers come via the Netherlands, although a significant proportion come from Kenya. Some Kenyan flowers come straight to the UK on direct flights from Nairobi, where entire terminals at certain airports are dedicated to flights exporting flowers. 5 Kenya flower production has three major advantages over the Netherlands: areas of high altitude with cool nights, which many flowers benefit from, proximity to the equator for maximum hours of sunlight, and cheaper labour. This means an end to seasonal production and the beginning of a 365‑day‑a‑year absolute advantage. The Netherlands has cost advantages in machinery and transport equipment, not flowers. 10 Cut flowers are now Kenya’s second largest export after tea, contributing around 1% of the country’s GDP. They are also one of the country’s largest sources of employment, with over 100 000 people working directly in the flower industry and an estimated two million indirectly. (Source: adapted from: https://www.economist.com/middle‑east‑and‑africa/2021/02/11/ kenyas-floral‑exports‑are-blooming‑once‑more) Extract G Changes in interest rates in sub‑Saharan Africa When Robert Matsiko was a young man his grain‑milling business in eastern Africa was destroyed by fire. Now, after building it back up from the ashes, he is being hurt by high interest rates. To buy a new machine he must borrow from a bank at an annual rate of 22%. 'You fear to do that,' Mr Matsiko says. Many other entrepreneurs feel the same, 5 which stops their businesses from growing, although very small firms can get help from microfinance schemes. Kenya’s central bank rate has fallen from over 20% to 7% in the last decade, but the rates charged to small businesses and individuals are much higher than the central bank interest rate. In sub‑Saharan Africa, the gap between saving and borrowing rates 10 is higher than anywhere else. The average bank lends at 6.8% above the central bank interest rate. Mobile banking, credit‑information sharing and innovation have helped to bring borrowing costs down. But until birth rates fall, interest rates will stay relatively high, because families with many children cannot afford to save. (Source: adapted from https://www.economist.com/finance‑and‑economics/2020/05/21/ why-interest‑rates-are‑so-high‑in-africa)
(a) Explain what is meant by the Lewis model. Refer to Extract D in your answer. (5)
June 2022 · Paper 3 · Q2(b) 8 marks AO1=2, AO2=2, AO3=2, AO4=2 8-mark response
Data and extracts for question 2Sub‑Saharan Africa – growth and development Figure 2: Kenya population, millions, 1960 to 2020 60 53.7 50 42.0 40 millions 32.0 30 23.7 20 16.4 11.3 8.1 10 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 (Source: adapted from Population, total ‑ Kenya | Data (worldbank.org)) Extract D Growth and development in Africa: 'Africa has a massive opportunity as a low‑cost provider of services' The outlook for Africa’s economies is not as simple as the Lewis model of growth and development implies: do more manufacturing or stay poor. Many countries are expanding into areas that economists are starting to call 'industries without smoking 5 chimneys'. Some, such as flower‑exports, may not be classified as manufactured goods in export statistics. But the process of producing flowers looks a lot like factory work and demands many of the same management skills. These industries also deliver many of the benefits of normal manufacturing, including many well‑paid jobs, and greater opportunities. 10 (Source: adapted from https://www.economist.com/special‑report/2020/03/26/many‑of- africas-economies‑are‑doing‑well) Extract E The demography of Kenya – ‘Demography will shape Africa’s future’ Falling birth rates, when accompanied by rising literacy, can help kick‑start growth. In Kenya 39% of the population is below the age of 15, falling from 43% in 2009. The labour force (15–64 years) is 57% and is the fastest growing population group. 6% of the population is over the age of 60. The number of children per family has fallen sharply, 5 from 8.1 children in 1978 to 4.6 children in 2008, and it is projected to possibly reach 2.4 children by 2050. In the 1970s little more than half of children in sub‑Saharan Africa were enrolled in primary school. That share has shot up to almost 100%. The statistic is slightly misleading, since the percentage of children regularly attending schools is nearer 60%. 10 Why does Kenya’s population continue to rise rapidly, while family size declines? There are two reasons. First, due to high fertility in previous decades, there are many more families in Kenya today. So even though families are smaller, the total number of children continues to grow. Second, Kenyans are living longer, with better healthcare – for example, polio was eradicated in 2014. Life expectancy is projected to increase from 15 54 years today to 68 years by 2050. 28% of Kenya is urbanised, and is becoming rapidly more so. By the 2030s it is expected that 36% of Kenyans will live in towns or cities rather than the poorer rural areas. Rich countries are urban countries. No country has ever reached high income levels with low urbanisation. Large urban centres have two distinct economic advantages. First, as more 20 people interact, there is more scope for innovation. Young people need jobs, but they also create jobs. Kenya has an educated workforce and a dynamic service industry, which typically has lower barriers of entry than agriculture or manufacturing, and provides opportunities for young entrepreneurs. Second, larger groups of population living in close proximity allow for economies of scale. 25 In light of these facts, Kenya’s future pattern of population growth can be a force of good. A large urbanising and well‑educated population tends to generate a strong middle class and vibrant private sector. Economic development may be easier to achieve and sustain – though it is not guaranteed. (Source: adapted from https://www.economist.com/special‑report/2020/03/26/ africas‑population‑will‑double‑by‑2050 and https://kenya.unfpa.org/sites/default/files/pub‑pdf/state_of_kenya_population_ report_2020.pdf and https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/opinion/2010/04/28/ demographic‑transition‑growth‑kenya) Extract F Kenya has an absolute advantage in cut flowers In the UK, 80% of cut flowers come via the Netherlands, although a significant proportion come from Kenya. Some Kenyan flowers come straight to the UK on direct flights from Nairobi, where entire terminals at certain airports are dedicated to flights exporting flowers. 5 Kenya flower production has three major advantages over the Netherlands: areas of high altitude with cool nights, which many flowers benefit from, proximity to the equator for maximum hours of sunlight, and cheaper labour. This means an end to seasonal production and the beginning of a 365‑day‑a‑year absolute advantage. The Netherlands has cost advantages in machinery and transport equipment, not flowers. 10 Cut flowers are now Kenya’s second largest export after tea, contributing around 1% of the country’s GDP. They are also one of the country’s largest sources of employment, with over 100 000 people working directly in the flower industry and an estimated two million indirectly. (Source: adapted from: https://www.economist.com/middle‑east‑and‑africa/2021/02/11/ kenyas-floral‑exports‑are-blooming‑once‑more) Extract G Changes in interest rates in sub‑Saharan Africa When Robert Matsiko was a young man his grain‑milling business in eastern Africa was destroyed by fire. Now, after building it back up from the ashes, he is being hurt by high interest rates. To buy a new machine he must borrow from a bank at an annual rate of 22%. 'You fear to do that,' Mr Matsiko says. Many other entrepreneurs feel the same, 5 which stops their businesses from growing, although very small firms can get help from microfinance schemes. Kenya’s central bank rate has fallen from over 20% to 7% in the last decade, but the rates charged to small businesses and individuals are much higher than the central bank interest rate. In sub‑Saharan Africa, the gap between saving and borrowing rates 10 is higher than anywhere else. The average bank lends at 6.8% above the central bank interest rate. Mobile banking, credit‑information sharing and innovation have helped to bring borrowing costs down. But until birth rates fall, interest rates will stay relatively high, because families with many children cannot afford to save. (Source: adapted from https://www.economist.com/finance‑and‑economics/2020/05/21/ why-interest‑rates-are‑so-high‑in-africa)
(b) Examine two demographic factors influencing development in Kenya. (8)
June 2022 · Paper 3 · Q2(e) 25 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=8, AO4=9 25-mark essay Either/or
Data and extracts for question 2Sub‑Saharan Africa – growth and development Figure 2: Kenya population, millions, 1960 to 2020 60 53.7 50 42.0 40 millions 32.0 30 23.7 20 16.4 11.3 8.1 10 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 (Source: adapted from Population, total ‑ Kenya | Data (worldbank.org)) Extract D Growth and development in Africa: 'Africa has a massive opportunity as a low‑cost provider of services' The outlook for Africa’s economies is not as simple as the Lewis model of growth and development implies: do more manufacturing or stay poor. Many countries are expanding into areas that economists are starting to call 'industries without smoking 5 chimneys'. Some, such as flower‑exports, may not be classified as manufactured goods in export statistics. But the process of producing flowers looks a lot like factory work and demands many of the same management skills. These industries also deliver many of the benefits of normal manufacturing, including many well‑paid jobs, and greater opportunities. 10 (Source: adapted from https://www.economist.com/special‑report/2020/03/26/many‑of- africas-economies‑are‑doing‑well) Extract E The demography of Kenya – ‘Demography will shape Africa’s future’ Falling birth rates, when accompanied by rising literacy, can help kick‑start growth. In Kenya 39% of the population is below the age of 15, falling from 43% in 2009. The labour force (15–64 years) is 57% and is the fastest growing population group. 6% of the population is over the age of 60. The number of children per family has fallen sharply, 5 from 8.1 children in 1978 to 4.6 children in 2008, and it is projected to possibly reach 2.4 children by 2050. In the 1970s little more than half of children in sub‑Saharan Africa were enrolled in primary school. That share has shot up to almost 100%. The statistic is slightly misleading, since the percentage of children regularly attending schools is nearer 60%. 10 Why does Kenya’s population continue to rise rapidly, while family size declines? There are two reasons. First, due to high fertility in previous decades, there are many more families in Kenya today. So even though families are smaller, the total number of children continues to grow. Second, Kenyans are living longer, with better healthcare – for example, polio was eradicated in 2014. Life expectancy is projected to increase from 15 54 years today to 68 years by 2050. 28% of Kenya is urbanised, and is becoming rapidly more so. By the 2030s it is expected that 36% of Kenyans will live in towns or cities rather than the poorer rural areas. Rich countries are urban countries. No country has ever reached high income levels with low urbanisation. Large urban centres have two distinct economic advantages. First, as more 20 people interact, there is more scope for innovation. Young people need jobs, but they also create jobs. Kenya has an educated workforce and a dynamic service industry, which typically has lower barriers of entry than agriculture or manufacturing, and provides opportunities for young entrepreneurs. Second, larger groups of population living in close proximity allow for economies of scale. 25 In light of these facts, Kenya’s future pattern of population growth can be a force of good. A large urbanising and well‑educated population tends to generate a strong middle class and vibrant private sector. Economic development may be easier to achieve and sustain – though it is not guaranteed. (Source: adapted from https://www.economist.com/special‑report/2020/03/26/ africas‑population‑will‑double‑by‑2050 and https://kenya.unfpa.org/sites/default/files/pub‑pdf/state_of_kenya_population_ report_2020.pdf and https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/opinion/2010/04/28/ demographic‑transition‑growth‑kenya) Extract F Kenya has an absolute advantage in cut flowers In the UK, 80% of cut flowers come via the Netherlands, although a significant proportion come from Kenya. Some Kenyan flowers come straight to the UK on direct flights from Nairobi, where entire terminals at certain airports are dedicated to flights exporting flowers. 5 Kenya flower production has three major advantages over the Netherlands: areas of high altitude with cool nights, which many flowers benefit from, proximity to the equator for maximum hours of sunlight, and cheaper labour. This means an end to seasonal production and the beginning of a 365‑day‑a‑year absolute advantage. The Netherlands has cost advantages in machinery and transport equipment, not flowers. 10 Cut flowers are now Kenya’s second largest export after tea, contributing around 1% of the country’s GDP. They are also one of the country’s largest sources of employment, with over 100 000 people working directly in the flower industry and an estimated two million indirectly. (Source: adapted from: https://www.economist.com/middle‑east‑and‑africa/2021/02/11/ kenyas-floral‑exports‑are-blooming‑once‑more) Extract G Changes in interest rates in sub‑Saharan Africa When Robert Matsiko was a young man his grain‑milling business in eastern Africa was destroyed by fire. Now, after building it back up from the ashes, he is being hurt by high interest rates. To buy a new machine he must borrow from a bank at an annual rate of 22%. 'You fear to do that,' Mr Matsiko says. Many other entrepreneurs feel the same, 5 which stops their businesses from growing, although very small firms can get help from microfinance schemes. Kenya’s central bank rate has fallen from over 20% to 7% in the last decade, but the rates charged to small businesses and individuals are much higher than the central bank interest rate. In sub‑Saharan Africa, the gap between saving and borrowing rates 10 is higher than anywhere else. The average bank lends at 6.8% above the central bank interest rate. Mobile banking, credit‑information sharing and innovation have helped to bring borrowing costs down. But until birth rates fall, interest rates will stay relatively high, because families with many children cannot afford to save. (Source: adapted from https://www.economist.com/finance‑and‑economics/2020/05/21/ why-interest‑rates-are‑so-high‑in-africa)
(e) Evaluate the microeconomic and macroeconomic strategies that could be used to promote development in Kenya, or another developing country of your choice. (25)
November 2021 · Paper 2 · Q6(a) 5 marks AO1=1, AO2=2, AO3=2 Calculation
Data and extracts for question 6Trade and aid in Rwanda Figure 1: Aid funding received by Rwanda (per capita, US dollars), 2008 to 2018 125 123 120 115 110 105 US dollars 100 95 90 85 83 80 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 (Source adapted from: data.worldbank.org) Figure 2: Population of Rwanda (millions), 2008 to 2018 12.5 12.0 11.5 11.0 Millions 10.5 10.0 9.5 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 (Source adapted from: https://tradingeconomics.com/rwanda/population) Figure 3: Rwanda real GDP annual percentage growth rate, 2008 to 2018 12 11 10 9 8 % 7 6 5 4 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 (Source adapted from: African Development Bank Statistics accessed April 2020) Extract A Rwandan tariffs on imports of used clothing In a market in Kigali, Rwanda’s capital, an auction is under way. Sellers offer crumpled T-shirts and faded jeans; traders argue over the best picks. Everything is second-hand. A Tommy Hilfiger shirt sells for 5 000 Rwandan francs ($5.82); a plain one for a tenth of that. Afterwards, a trader sorts through the purchases he will resell in his home village. 5 The logos hint at their previous lives: Kent State University, a rotary club in Pennsylvania, Number One Dad. These auctions were once twice as busy, but in 2016 Rwanda’s government increased import tariffs on a kilo of used clothes from $0.20 to $2.50. Now many traders struggle to make a profit. The traders are not the only ones who are unhappy. Exporters in the US 10 claim the tariffs are costing jobs there. In March, the US President warned that he would suspend Rwanda’s tariff-free access to US markets for its clothing exports after 60 days if it did not remove the tariff. Globally, about $4 billion of used clothes crossed borders in 2016. The share from China and South Korea is growing, but 70% still come from Europe and North America. Many 15 go to Asia and eastern Europe, but Africa remains the largest market. The trade enables poor people to afford clothes and creates retail jobs. However, governments worry that the trade undercuts their own clothing manufacturers. Second-hand imports of clothing now dominate African markets. Researchers at the Overseas Development Institute, a British think-tank, estimate that Tanzania imports 20 540 million used items of clothing and 180 million new ones each year, while producing fewer than 20 million itself. African manufacturing is weak for many reasons, from ineffective privatisations to collapsing infrastructure. But second-hand clothing imports are a major factor: it is estimated that they accounted for half of the fall in employment in the African clothing industry between 1981 and 2000. 25 For example, a clothing factory in Kigali is operating at only 40% of capacity and employs 600 workers, down from 1 100 in the 1990s. It is hard to compete, says Ritesh Patel, its manager, when a used imported T-shirt sells for the price of a bottle of water. Instead, the company specialises in uniforms for police, soldiers and security guards, which cannot be bought second-hand. 30 The threatened suspension of tariff-free access to the US market would hurt Rwanda, but not very much. Last year Rwanda sold just $1.5 million of clothing to the US. Nor, with about 12 million people, is Rwanda a big market for US exports. (Source adapted from: https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2018/05/31/ rwanda-refuses-to-remove-tariffs-on-imports-of-used-clothing) Extract B Development in Rwanda Rwanda’s strong economic growth has been accompanied by substantial improvements in living standards, with a two-thirds drop in child mortality and near-universal primary school enrolment. A strong focus on policies to encourage industrialisation and poverty reduction initiatives have contributed to significant improvements in access to services 5 and human development indicators. Absolute poverty declined from 59% to 39% of the population between 2001 and 2014 but was almost stagnant between 2014 and 2017. The official inequality measure, the Gini index, declined from 0.52 in 2006 to 0.43 in 2017. (Source adapted from: https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/rwanda/overview)
(a) Using the data in Figures 1 and 2, calculate the change in the level of total aid funding to Rwanda between 2011 and 2012. (5)
November 2021 · Paper 2 · Q6(b) 8 marks AO1=2, AO2=2, AO3=2, AO4=2 8-mark response
Data and extracts for question 6Trade and aid in Rwanda Figure 1: Aid funding received by Rwanda (per capita, US dollars), 2008 to 2018 125 123 120 115 110 105 US dollars 100 95 90 85 83 80 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 (Source adapted from: data.worldbank.org) Figure 2: Population of Rwanda (millions), 2008 to 2018 12.5 12.0 11.5 11.0 Millions 10.5 10.0 9.5 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 (Source adapted from: https://tradingeconomics.com/rwanda/population) Figure 3: Rwanda real GDP annual percentage growth rate, 2008 to 2018 12 11 10 9 8 % 7 6 5 4 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 (Source adapted from: African Development Bank Statistics accessed April 2020) Extract A Rwandan tariffs on imports of used clothing In a market in Kigali, Rwanda’s capital, an auction is under way. Sellers offer crumpled T-shirts and faded jeans; traders argue over the best picks. Everything is second-hand. A Tommy Hilfiger shirt sells for 5 000 Rwandan francs ($5.82); a plain one for a tenth of that. Afterwards, a trader sorts through the purchases he will resell in his home village. 5 The logos hint at their previous lives: Kent State University, a rotary club in Pennsylvania, Number One Dad. These auctions were once twice as busy, but in 2016 Rwanda’s government increased import tariffs on a kilo of used clothes from $0.20 to $2.50. Now many traders struggle to make a profit. The traders are not the only ones who are unhappy. Exporters in the US 10 claim the tariffs are costing jobs there. In March, the US President warned that he would suspend Rwanda’s tariff-free access to US markets for its clothing exports after 60 days if it did not remove the tariff. Globally, about $4 billion of used clothes crossed borders in 2016. The share from China and South Korea is growing, but 70% still come from Europe and North America. Many 15 go to Asia and eastern Europe, but Africa remains the largest market. The trade enables poor people to afford clothes and creates retail jobs. However, governments worry that the trade undercuts their own clothing manufacturers. Second-hand imports of clothing now dominate African markets. Researchers at the Overseas Development Institute, a British think-tank, estimate that Tanzania imports 20 540 million used items of clothing and 180 million new ones each year, while producing fewer than 20 million itself. African manufacturing is weak for many reasons, from ineffective privatisations to collapsing infrastructure. But second-hand clothing imports are a major factor: it is estimated that they accounted for half of the fall in employment in the African clothing industry between 1981 and 2000. 25 For example, a clothing factory in Kigali is operating at only 40% of capacity and employs 600 workers, down from 1 100 in the 1990s. It is hard to compete, says Ritesh Patel, its manager, when a used imported T-shirt sells for the price of a bottle of water. Instead, the company specialises in uniforms for police, soldiers and security guards, which cannot be bought second-hand. 30 The threatened suspension of tariff-free access to the US market would hurt Rwanda, but not very much. Last year Rwanda sold just $1.5 million of clothing to the US. Nor, with about 12 million people, is Rwanda a big market for US exports. (Source adapted from: https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2018/05/31/ rwanda-refuses-to-remove-tariffs-on-imports-of-used-clothing) Extract B Development in Rwanda Rwanda’s strong economic growth has been accompanied by substantial improvements in living standards, with a two-thirds drop in child mortality and near-universal primary school enrolment. A strong focus on policies to encourage industrialisation and poverty reduction initiatives have contributed to significant improvements in access to services 5 and human development indicators. Absolute poverty declined from 59% to 39% of the population between 2001 and 2014 but was almost stagnant between 2014 and 2017. The official inequality measure, the Gini index, declined from 0.52 in 2006 to 0.43 in 2017. (Source adapted from: https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/rwanda/overview)
(b) With reference to the information provided, examine two likely benefits for the Rwandan economy of the growth in the country’s population. (8)
November 2021 · Paper 2 · Q6(c) 10 marks AO1=2, AO2=2, AO3=2, AO4=4 10-mark response
Data and extracts for question 6Trade and aid in Rwanda Figure 1: Aid funding received by Rwanda (per capita, US dollars), 2008 to 2018 125 123 120 115 110 105 US dollars 100 95 90 85 83 80 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 (Source adapted from: data.worldbank.org) Figure 2: Population of Rwanda (millions), 2008 to 2018 12.5 12.0 11.5 11.0 Millions 10.5 10.0 9.5 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 (Source adapted from: https://tradingeconomics.com/rwanda/population) Figure 3: Rwanda real GDP annual percentage growth rate, 2008 to 2018 12 11 10 9 8 % 7 6 5 4 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 (Source adapted from: African Development Bank Statistics accessed April 2020) Extract A Rwandan tariffs on imports of used clothing In a market in Kigali, Rwanda’s capital, an auction is under way. Sellers offer crumpled T-shirts and faded jeans; traders argue over the best picks. Everything is second-hand. A Tommy Hilfiger shirt sells for 5 000 Rwandan francs ($5.82); a plain one for a tenth of that. Afterwards, a trader sorts through the purchases he will resell in his home village. 5 The logos hint at their previous lives: Kent State University, a rotary club in Pennsylvania, Number One Dad. These auctions were once twice as busy, but in 2016 Rwanda’s government increased import tariffs on a kilo of used clothes from $0.20 to $2.50. Now many traders struggle to make a profit. The traders are not the only ones who are unhappy. Exporters in the US 10 claim the tariffs are costing jobs there. In March, the US President warned that he would suspend Rwanda’s tariff-free access to US markets for its clothing exports after 60 days if it did not remove the tariff. Globally, about $4 billion of used clothes crossed borders in 2016. The share from China and South Korea is growing, but 70% still come from Europe and North America. Many 15 go to Asia and eastern Europe, but Africa remains the largest market. The trade enables poor people to afford clothes and creates retail jobs. However, governments worry that the trade undercuts their own clothing manufacturers. Second-hand imports of clothing now dominate African markets. Researchers at the Overseas Development Institute, a British think-tank, estimate that Tanzania imports 20 540 million used items of clothing and 180 million new ones each year, while producing fewer than 20 million itself. African manufacturing is weak for many reasons, from ineffective privatisations to collapsing infrastructure. But second-hand clothing imports are a major factor: it is estimated that they accounted for half of the fall in employment in the African clothing industry between 1981 and 2000. 25 For example, a clothing factory in Kigali is operating at only 40% of capacity and employs 600 workers, down from 1 100 in the 1990s. It is hard to compete, says Ritesh Patel, its manager, when a used imported T-shirt sells for the price of a bottle of water. Instead, the company specialises in uniforms for police, soldiers and security guards, which cannot be bought second-hand. 30 The threatened suspension of tariff-free access to the US market would hurt Rwanda, but not very much. Last year Rwanda sold just $1.5 million of clothing to the US. Nor, with about 12 million people, is Rwanda a big market for US exports. (Source adapted from: https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2018/05/31/ rwanda-refuses-to-remove-tariffs-on-imports-of-used-clothing) Extract B Development in Rwanda Rwanda’s strong economic growth has been accompanied by substantial improvements in living standards, with a two-thirds drop in child mortality and near-universal primary school enrolment. A strong focus on policies to encourage industrialisation and poverty reduction initiatives have contributed to significant improvements in access to services 5 and human development indicators. Absolute poverty declined from 59% to 39% of the population between 2001 and 2014 but was almost stagnant between 2014 and 2017. The official inequality measure, the Gini index, declined from 0.52 in 2006 to 0.43 in 2017. (Source adapted from: https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/rwanda/overview)
(c) With reference to the information provided, assess the likely impact on the Rwandan economy of the change in aid received between 2017 and 2018. (10)
November 2021 · Paper 2 · Q6(e) 15 marks AO1=3, AO2=3, AO3=3, AO4=6 15-mark response
Data and extracts for question 6Trade and aid in Rwanda Figure 1: Aid funding received by Rwanda (per capita, US dollars), 2008 to 2018 125 123 120 115 110 105 US dollars 100 95 90 85 83 80 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 (Source adapted from: data.worldbank.org) Figure 2: Population of Rwanda (millions), 2008 to 2018 12.5 12.0 11.5 11.0 Millions 10.5 10.0 9.5 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 (Source adapted from: https://tradingeconomics.com/rwanda/population) Figure 3: Rwanda real GDP annual percentage growth rate, 2008 to 2018 12 11 10 9 8 % 7 6 5 4 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 (Source adapted from: African Development Bank Statistics accessed April 2020) Extract A Rwandan tariffs on imports of used clothing In a market in Kigali, Rwanda’s capital, an auction is under way. Sellers offer crumpled T-shirts and faded jeans; traders argue over the best picks. Everything is second-hand. A Tommy Hilfiger shirt sells for 5 000 Rwandan francs ($5.82); a plain one for a tenth of that. Afterwards, a trader sorts through the purchases he will resell in his home village. 5 The logos hint at their previous lives: Kent State University, a rotary club in Pennsylvania, Number One Dad. These auctions were once twice as busy, but in 2016 Rwanda’s government increased import tariffs on a kilo of used clothes from $0.20 to $2.50. Now many traders struggle to make a profit. The traders are not the only ones who are unhappy. Exporters in the US 10 claim the tariffs are costing jobs there. In March, the US President warned that he would suspend Rwanda’s tariff-free access to US markets for its clothing exports after 60 days if it did not remove the tariff. Globally, about $4 billion of used clothes crossed borders in 2016. The share from China and South Korea is growing, but 70% still come from Europe and North America. Many 15 go to Asia and eastern Europe, but Africa remains the largest market. The trade enables poor people to afford clothes and creates retail jobs. However, governments worry that the trade undercuts their own clothing manufacturers. Second-hand imports of clothing now dominate African markets. Researchers at the Overseas Development Institute, a British think-tank, estimate that Tanzania imports 20 540 million used items of clothing and 180 million new ones each year, while producing fewer than 20 million itself. African manufacturing is weak for many reasons, from ineffective privatisations to collapsing infrastructure. But second-hand clothing imports are a major factor: it is estimated that they accounted for half of the fall in employment in the African clothing industry between 1981 and 2000. 25 For example, a clothing factory in Kigali is operating at only 40% of capacity and employs 600 workers, down from 1 100 in the 1990s. It is hard to compete, says Ritesh Patel, its manager, when a used imported T-shirt sells for the price of a bottle of water. Instead, the company specialises in uniforms for police, soldiers and security guards, which cannot be bought second-hand. 30 The threatened suspension of tariff-free access to the US market would hurt Rwanda, but not very much. Last year Rwanda sold just $1.5 million of clothing to the US. Nor, with about 12 million people, is Rwanda a big market for US exports. (Source adapted from: https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2018/05/31/ rwanda-refuses-to-remove-tariffs-on-imports-of-used-clothing) Extract B Development in Rwanda Rwanda’s strong economic growth has been accompanied by substantial improvements in living standards, with a two-thirds drop in child mortality and near-universal primary school enrolment. A strong focus on policies to encourage industrialisation and poverty reduction initiatives have contributed to significant improvements in access to services 5 and human development indicators. Absolute poverty declined from 59% to 39% of the population between 2001 and 2014 but was almost stagnant between 2014 and 2017. The official inequality measure, the Gini index, declined from 0.52 in 2006 to 0.43 in 2017. (Source adapted from: https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/rwanda/overview)
(e) Discuss policies, other than import tariffs, that the Rwandan government could use to develop its manufacturing industries. (15)
October 2020 · Paper 2 · Q3(a) 4 marks AO1=2, AO2=1, AO3=1 Short answer
Data and extracts for question 33 In 2018, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) lent Argentina $57 billion as part of a bailout package to help prevent the country’s government defaulting on its debts. This financial crisis also caused significant capital flight out of Argentina’s economy. (Source adapted from: https://www.ft.com/content/737b48bc‑c1c9‑11e8‑95b1‑d36dfef1b89a)
(a) Explain the role of the IMF in providing financial assistance to countries such as Argentina. (4)
October 2020 · Paper 2 · Q6(a) 5 marks AO1=2, AO2=2, AO3=1 Short answer
Data and extracts for question 6Trade and Development Issues in Africa Figure 1: The Fairtrade scheme in the cocoa industry. How the additional revenue is spent by cocoa farmers. Improving business administration and infrastructure 44% Investing in farm equipment, training and funding 45% Supporting social services for the community 10% Other 1% (Source: https://www.fairtrade.org.uk/~/media/FairtradeUK/What%20is%20Fairtrade/Documents/ Policy%20and%20Research%20documents/Monitoring%20reports/Fairtrade%20Monitoring%20 Report_9thEdition%202016.pdf) Figure 2: Ivory Coast exports – relative share of main products (%), 2016 23% cocoa beans & cocoa products 54% oil 11% rubber 7% 5% 54% gold 5% 7% other 23% 11% (Source: https://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/visualize/tree_map/hs92/export/civ/all/show/2016/) Extract A Cheap cocoa is costing farmers dear The median annual income of cocoa farmers in the west African country, Ivory Coast, is just US$2 600. Research suggests that an annual income of US$6 133 is needed for this country’s farmers to have a decent, living income. This situation is even worse for farmers who are not part of a Fairtrade scheme. 5 World cocoa prices fell by more than a third in 2017. Cocoa farmers have to accept all the risk from price volatility, putting a significant strain on their fragile incomes. On the other hand, cocoa processors and chocolate manufacturers are able to adapt or even make high profit and consumers continue to enjoy their chocolate. This is still happening despite considerable investment in agriculture to build a 10 sustainable cocoa sector. The focus has been on raising productivity and diversifying crops. The average cocoa farm in the Ivory Coast produces only around half of the output that could be achieved with training and resources such as fertilisers, equipment and replanting. If farmers diversify into other crops, livestock or non‑farm activities, they lower the risk they face of fluctuating world cocoa prices. 15 Even tripling farm output would not provide the average cocoa farmer with a living income. Diversification alone will not always make farms more profitable. If we want farmers to earn a living income, we must also be willing to pay farmers more. (Source adapted from: https://www.fairtrade.org.uk/Media‑Centre/Blog/2018/October/ Cheap‑cocoa‑is‑costing‑farmers‑dear) Extract B Sub‑Saharan Africa is becoming more integrated After two years of negotiations, representatives of a large number of African countries signed the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) in Kigali on March 21, 2018. This created a trading bloc of 1.2 billion people with a combined gross domestic product of more than US$2 trillion. The agreement committed countries to removing tariffs on 5 90% of goods and to liberalise services. This can be seen as a sign of rapid and steady regional integration. Sub‑Saharan Africa in particular is much more integrated today than in the past. The level of integration in sub‑Saharan Africa is now similar to that in the world’s other developing and emerging market economies. 10 However, the two largest African economies, Nigeria and South Africa, refused to sign the agreement. Nigeria’s manufacturers and trade unions are concerned about the potential negative impacts of becoming more open to imports from other African countries with lower labour costs. Greater interdependence can expose small economies to their partners’ recessions. 15 After nearly 20 years of strong economic activity, sub‑Saharan Africa experienced the downside of integration in 2015. The collapse in commodity prices and the slowdown in economic activity in Nigeria and South Africa contributed to sub‑Saharan African growth slowing sharply. Since 2017 growth has begun to recover. The recovery is mixed, though, and it is unclear to what extent the slow recovery of the larger economies is still 20 affecting the rest of sub‑Saharan Africa. (Source adapted from: https://www.imf.org/ and https://www.pulse.ng/)
(a) With reference to Figure 1 and Extract A, explain the likely impact of a Fairtrade scheme on agricultural communities. (5)
October 2020 · Paper 2 · Q6(b) 8 marks AO1=2, AO2=2, AO3=2, AO4=2 8-mark response
Data and extracts for question 6Trade and Development Issues in Africa Figure 1: The Fairtrade scheme in the cocoa industry. How the additional revenue is spent by cocoa farmers. Improving business administration and infrastructure 44% Investing in farm equipment, training and funding 45% Supporting social services for the community 10% Other 1% (Source: https://www.fairtrade.org.uk/~/media/FairtradeUK/What%20is%20Fairtrade/Documents/ Policy%20and%20Research%20documents/Monitoring%20reports/Fairtrade%20Monitoring%20 Report_9thEdition%202016.pdf) Figure 2: Ivory Coast exports – relative share of main products (%), 2016 23% cocoa beans & cocoa products 54% oil 11% rubber 7% 5% 54% gold 5% 7% other 23% 11% (Source: https://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/visualize/tree_map/hs92/export/civ/all/show/2016/) Extract A Cheap cocoa is costing farmers dear The median annual income of cocoa farmers in the west African country, Ivory Coast, is just US$2 600. Research suggests that an annual income of US$6 133 is needed for this country’s farmers to have a decent, living income. This situation is even worse for farmers who are not part of a Fairtrade scheme. 5 World cocoa prices fell by more than a third in 2017. Cocoa farmers have to accept all the risk from price volatility, putting a significant strain on their fragile incomes. On the other hand, cocoa processors and chocolate manufacturers are able to adapt or even make high profit and consumers continue to enjoy their chocolate. This is still happening despite considerable investment in agriculture to build a 10 sustainable cocoa sector. The focus has been on raising productivity and diversifying crops. The average cocoa farm in the Ivory Coast produces only around half of the output that could be achieved with training and resources such as fertilisers, equipment and replanting. If farmers diversify into other crops, livestock or non‑farm activities, they lower the risk they face of fluctuating world cocoa prices. 15 Even tripling farm output would not provide the average cocoa farmer with a living income. Diversification alone will not always make farms more profitable. If we want farmers to earn a living income, we must also be willing to pay farmers more. (Source adapted from: https://www.fairtrade.org.uk/Media‑Centre/Blog/2018/October/ Cheap‑cocoa‑is‑costing‑farmers‑dear) Extract B Sub‑Saharan Africa is becoming more integrated After two years of negotiations, representatives of a large number of African countries signed the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) in Kigali on March 21, 2018. This created a trading bloc of 1.2 billion people with a combined gross domestic product of more than US$2 trillion. The agreement committed countries to removing tariffs on 5 90% of goods and to liberalise services. This can be seen as a sign of rapid and steady regional integration. Sub‑Saharan Africa in particular is much more integrated today than in the past. The level of integration in sub‑Saharan Africa is now similar to that in the world’s other developing and emerging market economies. 10 However, the two largest African economies, Nigeria and South Africa, refused to sign the agreement. Nigeria’s manufacturers and trade unions are concerned about the potential negative impacts of becoming more open to imports from other African countries with lower labour costs. Greater interdependence can expose small economies to their partners’ recessions. 15 After nearly 20 years of strong economic activity, sub‑Saharan Africa experienced the downside of integration in 2015. The collapse in commodity prices and the slowdown in economic activity in Nigeria and South Africa contributed to sub‑Saharan African growth slowing sharply. Since 2017 growth has begun to recover. The recovery is mixed, though, and it is unclear to what extent the slow recovery of the larger economies is still 20 affecting the rest of sub‑Saharan Africa. (Source adapted from: https://www.imf.org/ and https://www.pulse.ng/)
(b) Examine two ways, apart from Fairtrade schemes, in which cocoa farmers could boost their incomes despite the falling price of cocoa. (8)
October 2020 · Paper 2 · Q6(c) 12 marks AO1=2, AO2=2, AO3=4, AO4=4 12-mark response
Data and extracts for question 6Trade and Development Issues in Africa Figure 1: The Fairtrade scheme in the cocoa industry. How the additional revenue is spent by cocoa farmers. Improving business administration and infrastructure 44% Investing in farm equipment, training and funding 45% Supporting social services for the community 10% Other 1% (Source: https://www.fairtrade.org.uk/~/media/FairtradeUK/What%20is%20Fairtrade/Documents/ Policy%20and%20Research%20documents/Monitoring%20reports/Fairtrade%20Monitoring%20 Report_9thEdition%202016.pdf) Figure 2: Ivory Coast exports – relative share of main products (%), 2016 23% cocoa beans & cocoa products 54% oil 11% rubber 7% 5% 54% gold 5% 7% other 23% 11% (Source: https://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/visualize/tree_map/hs92/export/civ/all/show/2016/) Extract A Cheap cocoa is costing farmers dear The median annual income of cocoa farmers in the west African country, Ivory Coast, is just US$2 600. Research suggests that an annual income of US$6 133 is needed for this country’s farmers to have a decent, living income. This situation is even worse for farmers who are not part of a Fairtrade scheme. 5 World cocoa prices fell by more than a third in 2017. Cocoa farmers have to accept all the risk from price volatility, putting a significant strain on their fragile incomes. On the other hand, cocoa processors and chocolate manufacturers are able to adapt or even make high profit and consumers continue to enjoy their chocolate. This is still happening despite considerable investment in agriculture to build a 10 sustainable cocoa sector. The focus has been on raising productivity and diversifying crops. The average cocoa farm in the Ivory Coast produces only around half of the output that could be achieved with training and resources such as fertilisers, equipment and replanting. If farmers diversify into other crops, livestock or non‑farm activities, they lower the risk they face of fluctuating world cocoa prices. 15 Even tripling farm output would not provide the average cocoa farmer with a living income. Diversification alone will not always make farms more profitable. If we want farmers to earn a living income, we must also be willing to pay farmers more. (Source adapted from: https://www.fairtrade.org.uk/Media‑Centre/Blog/2018/October/ Cheap‑cocoa‑is‑costing‑farmers‑dear) Extract B Sub‑Saharan Africa is becoming more integrated After two years of negotiations, representatives of a large number of African countries signed the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) in Kigali on March 21, 2018. This created a trading bloc of 1.2 billion people with a combined gross domestic product of more than US$2 trillion. The agreement committed countries to removing tariffs on 5 90% of goods and to liberalise services. This can be seen as a sign of rapid and steady regional integration. Sub‑Saharan Africa in particular is much more integrated today than in the past. The level of integration in sub‑Saharan Africa is now similar to that in the world’s other developing and emerging market economies. 10 However, the two largest African economies, Nigeria and South Africa, refused to sign the agreement. Nigeria’s manufacturers and trade unions are concerned about the potential negative impacts of becoming more open to imports from other African countries with lower labour costs. Greater interdependence can expose small economies to their partners’ recessions. 15 After nearly 20 years of strong economic activity, sub‑Saharan Africa experienced the downside of integration in 2015. The collapse in commodity prices and the slowdown in economic activity in Nigeria and South Africa contributed to sub‑Saharan African growth slowing sharply. Since 2017 growth has begun to recover. The recovery is mixed, though, and it is unclear to what extent the slow recovery of the larger economies is still 20 affecting the rest of sub‑Saharan Africa. (Source adapted from: https://www.imf.org/ and https://www.pulse.ng/)
(c) Discuss the problems for the Ivory Coast of dependency on cocoa for a large proportion of their exports. Refer to Figure 2 in your answer. (12)
June 2019 · Paper 3 · Q2(c) 12 marks AO1=2, AO2=2, AO3=4, AO4=4 12-mark response
Data and extracts for question 2Mozambique Figure 2: Interest rates (bank rate of the central bank) and inflation rates of selected African countries, 2017 Selected country Central bank Inflation rate rate of interest (CPI measure) Congo (D.R.) 14% 13.8% Ghana 21% 9.1% Kenya 10% 10.1% Malawi 18% 21.4% Mozambique 21.75% 18.0% Nigeria 14% 21.1% (Source: official government websites, and other news sources, July 2017) Extract D Rising debt levels in Africa Increases in national debt have brought several African governments towards a debt-servicing crisis when the repayment of debt and interest become unsustainable. Between 2010 and 2015, many sub-Saharan countries raised debt totalling more than £20 billion. Back then, with commodity prices soaring and foreign loans available at very 5 low interest rates, everyone agreed that borrowing was the way to grow an economy with expansionary fiscal policy. Since 2015, some African governments – beneficiaries of big debt write-offs at the start of the century – have taken to private debt markets too eagerly, leaving them with heavy repayment schedules at a time of lower commodity prices. 10 Until recently, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has played down African debt concerns, pointing to better management of public resources and greater transparency. But it was shaken by Mozambique’s default on more than £2 billion of secret loans used to purchase a non-existent tuna-fishing fleet, raising fears of hidden debt in other African countries with similar levels of corruption. The median level of debt in sub-Saharan Africa 15 had risen sharply from 34% of gross domestic product in 2013 to 48% in 2017. Although that is low by international standards, analysts said debt burdens were heavier than they appeared because of most African countries’ low tax base. “The real thing to look for is debt to revenue, or debt-service as a percentage of government spending,” said John Ashbourne, Africa Economist at Capital Economics. In several countries, he said, debt 20 payments were above 20% of government revenue, with an opportunity cost in terms of government spending. (Source: adapted from African debt worries intensify as levels near tipping point by David Pilling © Financial Times 2017 https://www.ft.com/ content/939808dc-b4d8-11e7-a398-73d59db9e399) Extract E Mozambique’s economic stability is being put to the test The economy of Mozambique, which gained independence from Portugal in 1975, has continued to under-perform. Large-scale emigration, especially of skilled workers, economic dependence on South Africa, a severe drought, a prolonged civil war and political tensions have hindered the country’s development. More than half of 5 Mozambique’s 26 million people continue to live below the poverty line. GDP growth declined to 3.6% in 2016 due to fiscal tightening and a slowdown in foreign direct investment. A weak manufacturing sector employs just 3.2% of the population, and is made up of small enterprises (90%), many of which were set up with the aid of microfinance. Traditional export earnings dropped due to depressed global demand. 10 In addition a wide-scale drought seriously affected agricultural production. Foreign currency inflows have weakened – as large-scale gas projects were put on hold, and 14 external lenders suspended direct budget support, as a lesson to be learned from the tuna-fleet scandal. The state budget deficit was 10.7% of GDP in 2017. High interest rates have reduced aggregate demand, and import costs added to inflation following further 15 depreciation of Mozambique’s currency, the metical, to a new low of 100 meticals to £1. Mozambique needs urgently to improve its investment environment and confidence in its institutions. The World Economic Forum’s global competitiveness ranking placed Mozambique 136 out of 137 countries. Longer term, Mozambique’s economic prospects are promising. There has been 20 progress in talks on restoring international confidence in the government’s running of the economy, leading to a lasting and sustainable agreement between rival political groups. The development of gas fields off Mozambique’s coast discovered in 2011 is set to transform the economy, coming into production in the 2020s. A rise in coal and electricity exports should help growth to increase. But in the short term, it remains 25 uncertain whether Mozambique can deliver badly needed economic stability. (Source: adapted from http://www.africaneconomicoutlook.org/en/country-notes/ mozambiqua and https://www.chathamhouse.org/expert/comment/ mozambique-s-stability-being-put-test 6 October 2017 Dr Alex Vines OBE) Extract F Microfinance in Mozambique Microfinance in Mozambique started in the late 1980s through projects initiated by international relief organisations. The sector has expanded to include many private banks and non-government organisations (NGOs), see Figure 3. This has resulted in wider use (over 100 000 borrowers) and many new business start-ups which could not have gained 5 finance from any other source. Evidence suggests that there is unfulfilled demand for microfinance and a large potential for expansion. (Source: adapted from http://www.mftransparency.org/microfinance-pricing/mozambique/) Figure 3: The cost of microfinance loans in Mozambique, 2015 Each symbol represents loans 200% to a number of borrowers (up to 2 000) by one institution. Institution Type Private banks 150% NGO 100% Mean annual percentage rate of interest 50% 0% 40 000 0 20 000 60 000 Loan size (meticals) (Source: http://www.mftransparency.org/microfinance-pricing/mozambique/)
(c) Discuss whether borrowers benefit from microfinance. Make reference to Mozambique in your answer. (12)
June 2019 · Paper 3 · Q2(d) 25 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=8, AO4=9 25-mark essay Either/or
Data and extracts for question 2Mozambique Figure 2: Interest rates (bank rate of the central bank) and inflation rates of selected African countries, 2017 Selected country Central bank Inflation rate rate of interest (CPI measure) Congo (D.R.) 14% 13.8% Ghana 21% 9.1% Kenya 10% 10.1% Malawi 18% 21.4% Mozambique 21.75% 18.0% Nigeria 14% 21.1% (Source: official government websites, and other news sources, July 2017) Extract D Rising debt levels in Africa Increases in national debt have brought several African governments towards a debt-servicing crisis when the repayment of debt and interest become unsustainable. Between 2010 and 2015, many sub-Saharan countries raised debt totalling more than £20 billion. Back then, with commodity prices soaring and foreign loans available at very 5 low interest rates, everyone agreed that borrowing was the way to grow an economy with expansionary fiscal policy. Since 2015, some African governments – beneficiaries of big debt write-offs at the start of the century – have taken to private debt markets too eagerly, leaving them with heavy repayment schedules at a time of lower commodity prices. 10 Until recently, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has played down African debt concerns, pointing to better management of public resources and greater transparency. But it was shaken by Mozambique’s default on more than £2 billion of secret loans used to purchase a non-existent tuna-fishing fleet, raising fears of hidden debt in other African countries with similar levels of corruption. The median level of debt in sub-Saharan Africa 15 had risen sharply from 34% of gross domestic product in 2013 to 48% in 2017. Although that is low by international standards, analysts said debt burdens were heavier than they appeared because of most African countries’ low tax base. “The real thing to look for is debt to revenue, or debt-service as a percentage of government spending,” said John Ashbourne, Africa Economist at Capital Economics. In several countries, he said, debt 20 payments were above 20% of government revenue, with an opportunity cost in terms of government spending. (Source: adapted from African debt worries intensify as levels near tipping point by David Pilling © Financial Times 2017 https://www.ft.com/ content/939808dc-b4d8-11e7-a398-73d59db9e399) Extract E Mozambique’s economic stability is being put to the test The economy of Mozambique, which gained independence from Portugal in 1975, has continued to under-perform. Large-scale emigration, especially of skilled workers, economic dependence on South Africa, a severe drought, a prolonged civil war and political tensions have hindered the country’s development. More than half of 5 Mozambique’s 26 million people continue to live below the poverty line. GDP growth declined to 3.6% in 2016 due to fiscal tightening and a slowdown in foreign direct investment. A weak manufacturing sector employs just 3.2% of the population, and is made up of small enterprises (90%), many of which were set up with the aid of microfinance. Traditional export earnings dropped due to depressed global demand. 10 In addition a wide-scale drought seriously affected agricultural production. Foreign currency inflows have weakened – as large-scale gas projects were put on hold, and 14 external lenders suspended direct budget support, as a lesson to be learned from the tuna-fleet scandal. The state budget deficit was 10.7% of GDP in 2017. High interest rates have reduced aggregate demand, and import costs added to inflation following further 15 depreciation of Mozambique’s currency, the metical, to a new low of 100 meticals to £1. Mozambique needs urgently to improve its investment environment and confidence in its institutions. The World Economic Forum’s global competitiveness ranking placed Mozambique 136 out of 137 countries. Longer term, Mozambique’s economic prospects are promising. There has been 20 progress in talks on restoring international confidence in the government’s running of the economy, leading to a lasting and sustainable agreement between rival political groups. The development of gas fields off Mozambique’s coast discovered in 2011 is set to transform the economy, coming into production in the 2020s. A rise in coal and electricity exports should help growth to increase. But in the short term, it remains 25 uncertain whether Mozambique can deliver badly needed economic stability. (Source: adapted from http://www.africaneconomicoutlook.org/en/country-notes/ mozambiqua and https://www.chathamhouse.org/expert/comment/ mozambique-s-stability-being-put-test 6 October 2017 Dr Alex Vines OBE) Extract F Microfinance in Mozambique Microfinance in Mozambique started in the late 1980s through projects initiated by international relief organisations. The sector has expanded to include many private banks and non-government organisations (NGOs), see Figure 3. This has resulted in wider use (over 100 000 borrowers) and many new business start-ups which could not have gained 5 finance from any other source. Evidence suggests that there is unfulfilled demand for microfinance and a large potential for expansion. (Source: adapted from http://www.mftransparency.org/microfinance-pricing/mozambique/) Figure 3: The cost of microfinance loans in Mozambique, 2015 Each symbol represents loans 200% to a number of borrowers (up to 2 000) by one institution. Institution Type Private banks 150% NGO 100% Mean annual percentage rate of interest 50% 0% 40 000 0 20 000 60 000 Loan size (meticals) (Source: http://www.mftransparency.org/microfinance-pricing/mozambique/)
(d) Evaluate the microeconomic and macroeconomic factors, apart from access to credit and banking, influencing growth and development in Mozambique. (25)
June 2018 · Paper 2 · Q6(b) 8 marks AO1=2, AO2=2, AO3=2, AO4=2 8-mark response
Data and extracts for question 6Globalisation and Inequality Figure 1: Proportion of population in absolute poverty (US$1.90-a-day 2011 PPP) 70 60 50 % 40 30 20 10 0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Year Key: Sub-Saharan Africa East Asia (Source: https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/ handle/10986/25078/9781464809583.pdf) Extract A Lessons from globalisation The past 25 years have seen a freeing up of trade. Capital has been free to move around the world. Formerly closed economies in Asia have been opened up and tariffs cut. In emerging economies, a billion people have been taken out of absolute poverty, but relative poverty remains a problem. 5 In many advanced economies globalisation has come to mean, according to the Governor of the Bank of England, “low wages, insecure employment, stateless corporations and striking inequalities”. His solution to these problems is threefold: an acceptance by economists that not everybody has gained from trade and technology; a better mix of monetary policy, fiscal policy and structural reform to boost growth; and 10 more inclusive growth. In essence, this is the same conclusion that was reached in the past when there was a fear that market forces had to be moderated to prevent capitalism from destroying itself. The good news is that this moderation of capitalism included real policy changes: an extension of the right to vote, the growth of trade unions, the creation of welfare states, a 15 move to more progressive tax policies, nationalisation of key sectors of the economy, and more activist demand management. The bad news is that this process took about 100 years and was not completed until the end of the Second World War. What’s more, protectionism seems to be on the increase as countries seek to protect themselves from inequalities caused by rapid globalisation. 20 (Source: adapted from https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/dec/05/ mark-carney-globalisation-bank-of-england-capitalism) Extract B Tackling inequality Despite decades of substantial progress in boosting prosperity and reducing absolute poverty, the world continues to suffer from substantial inequalities. For example, the poorest children are four times less likely than the richest children to be enrolled in primary education across developing countries. Among the estimated 780 million 5 illiterate adults worldwide, nearly two-thirds are women. Poor people face higher risks of malnutrition and death in childhood and lower chances of receiving key healthcare. Such inequalities result in high financial costs, limit economic growth, and generate social and political burdens and barriers. These consequences highlight the importance of directing attention to the problem of 10 inequality. There are other reasons to tackle inequality. Most economies are struggling to recover from the global financial crisis that started in 2008 and the subsequent slowdown in global growth. The goal of eliminating absolute poverty by 2030 might not be achieved without accelerated economic growth or reductions in inequalities within countries, especially in those with large numbers of poor. Generally speaking, 15 poverty can be reduced through higher average growth, a narrowing in inequality, or a combination of the two. Achieving the same poverty reduction during a slowdown in growth therefore requires a more equal income distribution. Some level of inequality is desirable to maintain an appropriate incentive structure in the economy or simply because inequality also reflects different levels of talent and effort 20 among individuals. However, the substantial inequality observed in the world today offers great scope for reducing the gap between rich and poor. Policies to redistribute income from higher-income and wealthy households to those on lower incomes can be achieved without compromising growth, if done effectively. A trade-off between efficiency and fairness is not inevitable. 25 (Source: adapted from https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/ bitstream/handle/10986/25078/9781464809583.pdf)
(b) With reference to the information provided and your own knowledge, examine two factors that might explain the differing rates of decline in absolute poverty in East Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. (8)
June 2018 · Paper 2 · Q6(e) 15 marks AO1=3, AO2=3, AO3=3, AO4=6 15-mark response
Data and extracts for question 6Globalisation and Inequality Figure 1: Proportion of population in absolute poverty (US$1.90-a-day 2011 PPP) 70 60 50 % 40 30 20 10 0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Year Key: Sub-Saharan Africa East Asia (Source: https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/ handle/10986/25078/9781464809583.pdf) Extract A Lessons from globalisation The past 25 years have seen a freeing up of trade. Capital has been free to move around the world. Formerly closed economies in Asia have been opened up and tariffs cut. In emerging economies, a billion people have been taken out of absolute poverty, but relative poverty remains a problem. 5 In many advanced economies globalisation has come to mean, according to the Governor of the Bank of England, “low wages, insecure employment, stateless corporations and striking inequalities”. His solution to these problems is threefold: an acceptance by economists that not everybody has gained from trade and technology; a better mix of monetary policy, fiscal policy and structural reform to boost growth; and 10 more inclusive growth. In essence, this is the same conclusion that was reached in the past when there was a fear that market forces had to be moderated to prevent capitalism from destroying itself. The good news is that this moderation of capitalism included real policy changes: an extension of the right to vote, the growth of trade unions, the creation of welfare states, a 15 move to more progressive tax policies, nationalisation of key sectors of the economy, and more activist demand management. The bad news is that this process took about 100 years and was not completed until the end of the Second World War. What’s more, protectionism seems to be on the increase as countries seek to protect themselves from inequalities caused by rapid globalisation. 20 (Source: adapted from https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/dec/05/ mark-carney-globalisation-bank-of-england-capitalism) Extract B Tackling inequality Despite decades of substantial progress in boosting prosperity and reducing absolute poverty, the world continues to suffer from substantial inequalities. For example, the poorest children are four times less likely than the richest children to be enrolled in primary education across developing countries. Among the estimated 780 million 5 illiterate adults worldwide, nearly two-thirds are women. Poor people face higher risks of malnutrition and death in childhood and lower chances of receiving key healthcare. Such inequalities result in high financial costs, limit economic growth, and generate social and political burdens and barriers. These consequences highlight the importance of directing attention to the problem of 10 inequality. There are other reasons to tackle inequality. Most economies are struggling to recover from the global financial crisis that started in 2008 and the subsequent slowdown in global growth. The goal of eliminating absolute poverty by 2030 might not be achieved without accelerated economic growth or reductions in inequalities within countries, especially in those with large numbers of poor. Generally speaking, 15 poverty can be reduced through higher average growth, a narrowing in inequality, or a combination of the two. Achieving the same poverty reduction during a slowdown in growth therefore requires a more equal income distribution. Some level of inequality is desirable to maintain an appropriate incentive structure in the economy or simply because inequality also reflects different levels of talent and effort 20 among individuals. However, the substantial inequality observed in the world today offers great scope for reducing the gap between rich and poor. Policies to redistribute income from higher-income and wealthy households to those on lower incomes can be achieved without compromising growth, if done effectively. A trade-off between efficiency and fairness is not inevitable. 25 (Source: adapted from https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/ bitstream/handle/10986/25078/9781464809583.pdf)
(e) Discuss the role of the financial sector in the growth and development of developing countries. (15)
June 2018 · Paper 3 · Q2(c) 12 marks AO1=2, AO2=2, AO3=4, AO4=4 12-mark response
Data and extracts for question 2Indonesia Figure 4: World coal prices, 2006–2016, US dollars per tonne 250 200 150 $ per tonne 100 50 0 2006 08 10 12 14 16 (Source: http://www.economist.com/news/world-week/21697025-business-week) Figure 5: Indonesia’s real GDP, annual percentage change 10 5 + % 0 change – in GDP 5 10 15 2006 08 10 12 14 16 (Source: http://www.economist.com/news/world-week/21697025-business-week) Extract D Indonesia’s economic outlook The Indonesian economy is expected to grow by an average of 4.8% a year between 2017 and 2021. Joko Widodo, president of Indonesia since 2014, is increasingly confident in his role and now has enough political support to pass some of his desired supply-side reforms. His government has been aggressively trying to improve the business and investment 5 environment by easing regulations and offering tax incentives, for example to firms investing in special economic zones. Indonesia receives US$2.3 billion a year in overseas development aid, which is mainly spent on education and healthcare. There is also ongoing aid from international institutions and non-government organisations paying for restructuring after the 2004 10 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami, which led to the loss of over 170 000 lives and much damage to economic livelihood. Aid agencies have supported the Indonesian government in providing healthcare free at the point of access for 88 million of the poorest people, free schooling for 12 years for each child, and tertiary education for students accepted into university. There is a scheme to provide each of Indonesia’s 15 15.5 million poorest households with a cash transfer of 200 000 rupiah (US$14.37) a month. The World Bank has approved US$800 million in infrastructure loans to Indonesia, with another US$950 million as conditional loans. The Asian Development Bank has committed itself to lending US$2 billion. In December Japan’s development agency lent Indonesia US$535 million to construct two power stations. 20 (Sources: adapted from http://country.eiu.com/Indonesia and http://www.economist.com/ news/special-report/21693404-after-decades-underinvestment- infrastructure-spending-picking-up-last) Extract E Indonesia’s economic policies as commodity prices collapse Indonesia is the world’s fourth largest exporter of coal and the raw material accounts for 11% of its exports. Its other main exports are crude oil, palm oil, rubber and tin. Its main commodity exports tripled in value between 2000 and 2010, and as exports boomed, so did the economy. But the value of commodity exports has fallen by more than half from 5 its peak. Coal now sells for just US$50 per tonne, against US$125 in 2011. In the decade to 2014, Indonesia’s real GDP grew by an annual average of 6%, but the collapse in commodity prices has slowed the economy. In 2015 growth was 4.8%, the slowest rate since 2009. But compared with many other commodity exporters, Indonesia is getting off lightly. 10 The value of the rupiah, Indonesia’s currency, against the US dollar has fallen by 30% since 2013, but has since stabilised. Other emerging market currencies have depreciated even more steeply over that period. Despite the weak exchange rate, Indonesia’s inflation rate has mostly remained within the central bank’s target range of 3-5%. The main impact of the rupiah’s fall has been to curb imports, helping limit Indonesia’s current account 15 deficit to around 2% of GDP despite weaker export earnings. A cautious fiscal policy during the boom years has allowed for a modest fiscal expansion to offset the effects of weak exports and investment. The national debt is just 26% of GDP. Mr Widodo knows that Indonesia cannot raise its long-term growth rate if the economy remains reliant on coal. It needs a broader range of manufacturing and service industries. 20 If new enterprise is to flourish, Indonesia must support local entrepreneurship. The labour market is inflexible. To start a business takes an average of 47 days, compared with four in Malaysia and two in Singapore. The President’s supply-side policies are improving the business climate. The average number of days needed to approve a new power plant has declined from 900 to 200. The government recently revised its “negative investment 25 list” of sectors in which foreign ownership is banned or restricted, fully opening up the rubber, film and restaurant sectors, among others. In 2015 he launched a series of measures to try to reduce government failure, including easing some regulations, streamlining licensing procedures for firms on industrial estates and providing tax incentives to invest in special economic zones. 30 The government has used savings from cutting fuel subsidies, worth over 4% of GDP, to fund extra capital spending. But the budget deficit still widened to 2.8% of GDP, very close to the legal limit of 3%. If public expenditure is to increase further, the government will need to raise more revenue. That will not be easy. Most workers and employers pay little or no tax. Only 27 million of Indonesia’s 255 million people are registered taxpayers, 35 and in 2014 just 900 000 of them paid what they owed, leaving it with a tax revenue to GDP ratio of around 10%. Big companies say that they are being squeezed harder by the tax authorities because they are an easier target. Infrastructure spending will help bring foreign investment and good jobs to Indonesia as well as encouraging exports. Indonesia’s infrastructure problem can be summed up 40 as too few roads and congested ports. In the short term, infrastructure spending puts people to work and boosts demand for raw materials. In the longer term this spending offers the chance to make up for decades of neglect and underinvestment. Indonesia has plans for 65 dams, 16 of which are already under construction. In 2015 work started on the Keureuto Dam, designed to boost agricultural productivity in Aceh. Recently fields 45 were flooded for the massive Jatigede Dam in West Java, after 20 years of delays. Once complete, the dam will irrigate 90 000 hectares of rice paddy, increasing efficiency by giving farmers two harvests a year instead of one. (Sources: adapted from http://www.economist.com/news/special-report/21693405- secure-growth-it-needs-indonesia-must-resist-its-protectionist-urges-roll- out and http://www.economist.com/news/special-report/21693404-after- decades-underinvestment-infrastructure-spending-picking-up-last)
(c) Discuss the benefits of aid to Indonesia. (12)
June 2018 · Paper 3 · Q2(d) 25 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=8, AO4=9 25-mark essay Either/or
Data and extracts for question 2Indonesia Figure 4: World coal prices, 2006–2016, US dollars per tonne 250 200 150 $ per tonne 100 50 0 2006 08 10 12 14 16 (Source: http://www.economist.com/news/world-week/21697025-business-week) Figure 5: Indonesia’s real GDP, annual percentage change 10 5 + % 0 change – in GDP 5 10 15 2006 08 10 12 14 16 (Source: http://www.economist.com/news/world-week/21697025-business-week) Extract D Indonesia’s economic outlook The Indonesian economy is expected to grow by an average of 4.8% a year between 2017 and 2021. Joko Widodo, president of Indonesia since 2014, is increasingly confident in his role and now has enough political support to pass some of his desired supply-side reforms. His government has been aggressively trying to improve the business and investment 5 environment by easing regulations and offering tax incentives, for example to firms investing in special economic zones. Indonesia receives US$2.3 billion a year in overseas development aid, which is mainly spent on education and healthcare. There is also ongoing aid from international institutions and non-government organisations paying for restructuring after the 2004 10 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami, which led to the loss of over 170 000 lives and much damage to economic livelihood. Aid agencies have supported the Indonesian government in providing healthcare free at the point of access for 88 million of the poorest people, free schooling for 12 years for each child, and tertiary education for students accepted into university. There is a scheme to provide each of Indonesia’s 15 15.5 million poorest households with a cash transfer of 200 000 rupiah (US$14.37) a month. The World Bank has approved US$800 million in infrastructure loans to Indonesia, with another US$950 million as conditional loans. The Asian Development Bank has committed itself to lending US$2 billion. In December Japan’s development agency lent Indonesia US$535 million to construct two power stations. 20 (Sources: adapted from http://country.eiu.com/Indonesia and http://www.economist.com/ news/special-report/21693404-after-decades-underinvestment- infrastructure-spending-picking-up-last) Extract E Indonesia’s economic policies as commodity prices collapse Indonesia is the world’s fourth largest exporter of coal and the raw material accounts for 11% of its exports. Its other main exports are crude oil, palm oil, rubber and tin. Its main commodity exports tripled in value between 2000 and 2010, and as exports boomed, so did the economy. But the value of commodity exports has fallen by more than half from 5 its peak. Coal now sells for just US$50 per tonne, against US$125 in 2011. In the decade to 2014, Indonesia’s real GDP grew by an annual average of 6%, but the collapse in commodity prices has slowed the economy. In 2015 growth was 4.8%, the slowest rate since 2009. But compared with many other commodity exporters, Indonesia is getting off lightly. 10 The value of the rupiah, Indonesia’s currency, against the US dollar has fallen by 30% since 2013, but has since stabilised. Other emerging market currencies have depreciated even more steeply over that period. Despite the weak exchange rate, Indonesia’s inflation rate has mostly remained within the central bank’s target range of 3-5%. The main impact of the rupiah’s fall has been to curb imports, helping limit Indonesia’s current account 15 deficit to around 2% of GDP despite weaker export earnings. A cautious fiscal policy during the boom years has allowed for a modest fiscal expansion to offset the effects of weak exports and investment. The national debt is just 26% of GDP. Mr Widodo knows that Indonesia cannot raise its long-term growth rate if the economy remains reliant on coal. It needs a broader range of manufacturing and service industries. 20 If new enterprise is to flourish, Indonesia must support local entrepreneurship. The labour market is inflexible. To start a business takes an average of 47 days, compared with four in Malaysia and two in Singapore. The President’s supply-side policies are improving the business climate. The average number of days needed to approve a new power plant has declined from 900 to 200. The government recently revised its “negative investment 25 list” of sectors in which foreign ownership is banned or restricted, fully opening up the rubber, film and restaurant sectors, among others. In 2015 he launched a series of measures to try to reduce government failure, including easing some regulations, streamlining licensing procedures for firms on industrial estates and providing tax incentives to invest in special economic zones. 30 The government has used savings from cutting fuel subsidies, worth over 4% of GDP, to fund extra capital spending. But the budget deficit still widened to 2.8% of GDP, very close to the legal limit of 3%. If public expenditure is to increase further, the government will need to raise more revenue. That will not be easy. Most workers and employers pay little or no tax. Only 27 million of Indonesia’s 255 million people are registered taxpayers, 35 and in 2014 just 900 000 of them paid what they owed, leaving it with a tax revenue to GDP ratio of around 10%. Big companies say that they are being squeezed harder by the tax authorities because they are an easier target. Infrastructure spending will help bring foreign investment and good jobs to Indonesia as well as encouraging exports. Indonesia’s infrastructure problem can be summed up 40 as too few roads and congested ports. In the short term, infrastructure spending puts people to work and boosts demand for raw materials. In the longer term this spending offers the chance to make up for decades of neglect and underinvestment. Indonesia has plans for 65 dams, 16 of which are already under construction. In 2015 work started on the Keureuto Dam, designed to boost agricultural productivity in Aceh. Recently fields 45 were flooded for the massive Jatigede Dam in West Java, after 20 years of delays. Once complete, the dam will irrigate 90 000 hectares of rice paddy, increasing efficiency by giving farmers two harvests a year instead of one. (Sources: adapted from http://www.economist.com/news/special-report/21693405- secure-growth-it-needs-indonesia-must-resist-its-protectionist-urges-roll- out and http://www.economist.com/news/special-report/21693404-after- decades-underinvestment-infrastructure-spending-picking-up-last)
(d) With reference to the information provided and your own knowledge, evaluate the microeconomic and macroeconomic effects on Indonesia of the volatility of prices of commodities such as coal. (25)
June 2017 · Paper 2 · Q5(b) 4 marks AO1=2, AO2=1, AO3=1 Short answer
Data and extracts for question 55 The table shows the selected economic data in 2014 for Vietnam and India. Gross National Human Income per Development capita Index (HDI) value (2011 PPPs) Vietnam 5 092 0.666 India 5 497 0.609 (Source: www.hdr.undp.org/en/composite/HDI)
(b) With reference to the data provided, explain two limitations of using the HDI to compare levels of development between countries and over time. (4)
June 2017 · Paper 3 · Q1(c) 12 marks AO1=2, AO2=2, AO3=4, AO4=4 12-mark response
Data and extracts for question 1Chile Figure 1: Copper prices, US dollars per tonne, 2007–2015 10000 US dollars per tonne 5000 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2014 2015 2013 (Source: adapted from http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/ ?commodity=copper&months=120) Figure 2: US dollar per 100 Chile pesos exchange rate, 2007–2015 0.24 0.22 Price of 100 Chile 0.20 pesos in 0.18 US dollars 0.16 0.14 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 (Source: https://www.google.co.uk/finance?q=CLPUSD&ei=OGEvVun-AouIU6awjugF) Figure 3: Chile: copper output and real GDP growth, 2007–2015 10 GDP 5 Annual 0 % change –5 Copper output –10 2013 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2014 2015 (Source: adapted from FT.com sources below) Extract A Chile’s economic outlook brightens Chile has been hit hard by a worldwide fall in commodity prices since 2011. Copper accounts for 20% of Chile’s GDP and 60% of its exports; one third of the world’s copper is produced by Chile. China purchased 40% of the world’s copper, so a slowdown in China combined with increased global over-supply has meant copper prices have 5 collapsed (see Figure 1). Chilean government income from copper exports had reached $11.5 billion a year before copper prices fell, but now tax revenues from this source have fallen drastically. Growing numbers of copper mines struggle to break even at current prices. Chile’s GDP is now growing, helped by a weak currency that has boosted export 10 industries outside the mining sector, such as its successful wine and salmon industries. There are strengths in tourism and high-tech products. Public services are good in Chile, and poverty rates have been falling fast. On top of this, a large and diversified financial sector with high domestic savings provides a useful safety net, given high levels of corporate debt and the government’s need to finance a fiscal deficit of 3% of GDP. 15 Chile’s economy is often regarded as the best run in the region. This is attributed to the credibility of its financial institutions, relatively low levels of national debt (about 15% of GDP) and its free-trade model, which is unrestricted by government interventionism that has distorted the economies of countries such as Argentina and Venezuela. “Chile is an example of how credible institutions can smooth the economic cycle and make 20 adjustments less traumatic,” said Mr Valdés, the minister of finance in Chile, pointing to its widely respected and independent central bank and a well-established fiscal rule that give officials the freedom to implement counter-cyclical policies. However, there are worries that without enough spare capacity in the economy, expansionary fiscal and monetary policies could end up increasing inflation rather than 25 economic growth. Meanwhile monetary policy is restricted by inflation that has reached 5%, well outside the central bank’s 2–4% target range, fuelled by a weaker exchange rate. Crucially, investment remains low because of uncertainty over the outcome of the Prime Minister’s reforms, which are aimed at reducing inequality. A recent rise in corporation tax from 20% to 25% and labour market reforms that strengthen the power of trade 30 unions may have a negative effect on business confidence. Despite a “mildly contractionary” budget, Valdés insisted that the government would continue with costly reforms. Increased taxes on those on higher incomes are considered by the government to be necessary to sustain economic development in Chile. “We do want to change society, while recognising all the good things that have been done in 35 the past 25 years,” said Mr Valdés, referring to an average growth rate of 5.3% over the past three decades, but under 2% in 2015. There is broad consensus that investment in education is the key to unlocking Chile’s growth potential. (Sources: adapted from http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/89926ce8-df96-11e4-a6c400144feab7de html#axzz3pCnzT3PC FT 20 April 2015 and http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d60ac2b2-7453- 11e5-a129-3fcc4f641d98.html?siteedition=uk#axzz3pCnzT3PC FT 19 October 2015 and http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d60ac2b2-7453-11e5-a129-3fcc4f641d98.html?siteedition= uk#axzz3pCnzT3PC FT 19 October 2015 all by Benedict Mander) Extract B Chile’s copper mining on a downward track There was a time when investing in Chilean mining meant guaranteed success. After 1990, when military rule was replaced by an elected government, market reforms and restored relations with the US and UK meant foreign companies were keen to exploit vast copper reserves. The existence of large copper reserves in a stable country with a 5 business-friendly government is rare, making Chile much more attractive to investors than countries such as Zambia. By mid-2015, however, the copper price hit a six-year low. Chilean mines are becoming less productive. After 20 years of heavy digging, the ore is lower grade, and much further down. The deeper pits take longer to mine, and use more fuel. Wages are high, and trade 10 unions are powerful. A mining truck driver earns $70 000 a year, $10 000 more than the US equivalent. Many mining projects that were planned are being postponed, and investors are looking to Peru; even the US copper mining industry is becoming more competitive. Energy supply is also a worry as Chile produces virtually no fossil fuels and relies on 15 imported coal and liquid natural gas to power its mines. Energy costs account for 18% of the cost of copper production. Water supply is also becoming a major problem. Farmers and communities accuse mining companies of causing water shortages to keep their operations running. A prolonged drought has not helped. Mining firms are turning to desalination plants 20 or using untreated seawater. However pumping water 200 kilometres from the Pacific Ocean to the copper mines is costly. Chile’s environmentalist movement has forced the government to tighten regulations. In 2001, it took 236 days to get an environmental impact assessment of a new mine approved. By 2013, this had increased to 506 days. 25 (Source: adapted from http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ea060ef4-6ae2-11e5-8171- ba1968cf791a.html#axzz3p20if45k Gideon Long September 27, 2015)
(c) Apart from externalities, discuss the problems that Chile faces as a result of dependency on copper mining. (12)
June 2017 · Paper 3 · Q1(d) 25 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=8, AO4=9 25-mark essay Either/or
Data and extracts for question 1Chile Figure 1: Copper prices, US dollars per tonne, 2007–2015 10000 US dollars per tonne 5000 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2014 2015 2013 (Source: adapted from http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/ ?commodity=copper&months=120) Figure 2: US dollar per 100 Chile pesos exchange rate, 2007–2015 0.24 0.22 Price of 100 Chile 0.20 pesos in 0.18 US dollars 0.16 0.14 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 (Source: https://www.google.co.uk/finance?q=CLPUSD&ei=OGEvVun-AouIU6awjugF) Figure 3: Chile: copper output and real GDP growth, 2007–2015 10 GDP 5 Annual 0 % change –5 Copper output –10 2013 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2014 2015 (Source: adapted from FT.com sources below) Extract A Chile’s economic outlook brightens Chile has been hit hard by a worldwide fall in commodity prices since 2011. Copper accounts for 20% of Chile’s GDP and 60% of its exports; one third of the world’s copper is produced by Chile. China purchased 40% of the world’s copper, so a slowdown in China combined with increased global over-supply has meant copper prices have 5 collapsed (see Figure 1). Chilean government income from copper exports had reached $11.5 billion a year before copper prices fell, but now tax revenues from this source have fallen drastically. Growing numbers of copper mines struggle to break even at current prices. Chile’s GDP is now growing, helped by a weak currency that has boosted export 10 industries outside the mining sector, such as its successful wine and salmon industries. There are strengths in tourism and high-tech products. Public services are good in Chile, and poverty rates have been falling fast. On top of this, a large and diversified financial sector with high domestic savings provides a useful safety net, given high levels of corporate debt and the government’s need to finance a fiscal deficit of 3% of GDP. 15 Chile’s economy is often regarded as the best run in the region. This is attributed to the credibility of its financial institutions, relatively low levels of national debt (about 15% of GDP) and its free-trade model, which is unrestricted by government interventionism that has distorted the economies of countries such as Argentina and Venezuela. “Chile is an example of how credible institutions can smooth the economic cycle and make 20 adjustments less traumatic,” said Mr Valdés, the minister of finance in Chile, pointing to its widely respected and independent central bank and a well-established fiscal rule that give officials the freedom to implement counter-cyclical policies. However, there are worries that without enough spare capacity in the economy, expansionary fiscal and monetary policies could end up increasing inflation rather than 25 economic growth. Meanwhile monetary policy is restricted by inflation that has reached 5%, well outside the central bank’s 2–4% target range, fuelled by a weaker exchange rate. Crucially, investment remains low because of uncertainty over the outcome of the Prime Minister’s reforms, which are aimed at reducing inequality. A recent rise in corporation tax from 20% to 25% and labour market reforms that strengthen the power of trade 30 unions may have a negative effect on business confidence. Despite a “mildly contractionary” budget, Valdés insisted that the government would continue with costly reforms. Increased taxes on those on higher incomes are considered by the government to be necessary to sustain economic development in Chile. “We do want to change society, while recognising all the good things that have been done in 35 the past 25 years,” said Mr Valdés, referring to an average growth rate of 5.3% over the past three decades, but under 2% in 2015. There is broad consensus that investment in education is the key to unlocking Chile’s growth potential. (Sources: adapted from http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/89926ce8-df96-11e4-a6c400144feab7de html#axzz3pCnzT3PC FT 20 April 2015 and http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d60ac2b2-7453- 11e5-a129-3fcc4f641d98.html?siteedition=uk#axzz3pCnzT3PC FT 19 October 2015 and http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d60ac2b2-7453-11e5-a129-3fcc4f641d98.html?siteedition= uk#axzz3pCnzT3PC FT 19 October 2015 all by Benedict Mander) Extract B Chile’s copper mining on a downward track There was a time when investing in Chilean mining meant guaranteed success. After 1990, when military rule was replaced by an elected government, market reforms and restored relations with the US and UK meant foreign companies were keen to exploit vast copper reserves. The existence of large copper reserves in a stable country with a 5 business-friendly government is rare, making Chile much more attractive to investors than countries such as Zambia. By mid-2015, however, the copper price hit a six-year low. Chilean mines are becoming less productive. After 20 years of heavy digging, the ore is lower grade, and much further down. The deeper pits take longer to mine, and use more fuel. Wages are high, and trade 10 unions are powerful. A mining truck driver earns $70 000 a year, $10 000 more than the US equivalent. Many mining projects that were planned are being postponed, and investors are looking to Peru; even the US copper mining industry is becoming more competitive. Energy supply is also a worry as Chile produces virtually no fossil fuels and relies on 15 imported coal and liquid natural gas to power its mines. Energy costs account for 18% of the cost of copper production. Water supply is also becoming a major problem. Farmers and communities accuse mining companies of causing water shortages to keep their operations running. A prolonged drought has not helped. Mining firms are turning to desalination plants 20 or using untreated seawater. However pumping water 200 kilometres from the Pacific Ocean to the copper mines is costly. Chile’s environmentalist movement has forced the government to tighten regulations. In 2001, it took 236 days to get an environmental impact assessment of a new mine approved. By 2013, this had increased to 506 days. 25 (Source: adapted from http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ea060ef4-6ae2-11e5-8171- ba1968cf791a.html#axzz3p20if45k Gideon Long September 27, 2015)
(d) With reference to the information provided and your own knowledge, evaluate the microeconomic and macroeconomic effects of policies that could be used to stimulate economic growth and development in Chile. (25)

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