Economic growth, output gaps and the trade cycle Theme 2

Where it is examined
A-level Paper 2 (and Paper 3); AS Paper 2
Level
AS and A level
Specification
Section 2.5, 4 statements
Since 2016
28 question parts: 4 essays, 3 levels-marked responses, 7 multiple-choice items

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Specification statements

Every essay set on this topic

SeriesPaperQMarksTitle
November 2021Paper 31(d)25Evaluate the microeconomic and macroeconomic factors which determine the number of firms in an industry. Refer to HCWs or another industry of your choice.
November 2021Paper 32(d)25Evaluate the microeconomic and macroeconomic factors which are likely to determine the rate of economic growth in Germany relative to other developed economies.
June 2017AS Paper 26(f)20Evaluate the benefits of economic growth to the UK given that ‘a number of concerns remain’ in the UK economy (Extract A, line 7).
June 2017AS Paper 26(g)20Evaluate the view that another recession is ‘inevitable’ in the UK (Extract A, line 24).

Past-paper questions

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June 2025 · AS Paper 2 · Q3(a) 1 mark Multiple choice
Data and extracts for question 33 It was forecast that the UK will experience a positive output gap in 2024.
(a) Which point on the trade cycle diagram illustrates a positive output gap? (1) Real GDP Trend GDP growth Actual GDP growth D C A B Time A B C D
June 2025 · AS Paper 2 · Q3(b) 2 marks AO1=2 Short answer
Data and extracts for question 33 It was forecast that the UK will experience a positive output gap in 2024.
(b) Explain one reason why it is difficult to measure the size of an output gap in an economy. (2)
June 2025 · Paper 2 · Q3(b)(i) 2 marks AO1=1, AO3=1 Short answer
Data and extracts for question 33 UK real GDP percentage growth, quarter 1 (Q1) 2022 to quarter 1 (Q1) 2023. 0.75 % 0.50 0.25 0 –0.25 Q1 2022 Q2 2022 Q3 2022 Q4 2022 Q1 2023 (Source adapted from: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/ bulletins/quarterlynationalaccounts/januarytomarch2023)
(b) Explain one likely disadvantage of a decline in GDP on: (i) workers (2)
June 2025 · Paper 2 · Q3(b)(ii) 2 marks AO1=1, AO3=1 Short answer
Data and extracts for question 33 UK real GDP percentage growth, quarter 1 (Q1) 2022 to quarter 1 (Q1) 2023. 0.75 % 0.50 0.25 0 –0.25 Q1 2022 Q2 2022 Q3 2022 Q4 2022 Q1 2023 (Source adapted from: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/ bulletins/quarterlynationalaccounts/januarytomarch2023)
(b) Explain one likely disadvantage of a decline in GDP on: (ii) government. (2)
June 2025 · AS Paper 2 · Q3(c) 1 mark AO1=1 Definition
Data and extracts for question 33 It was forecast that the UK will experience a positive output gap in 2024.
(c) Define the term ‘trade cycle’. (1)
June 2024 · AS Paper 2 · Q1(a) 1 mark Multiple choice
Data and extracts for question 11 In 2019 the average annual percentage increase in real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was 1.7% in developed countries and it was 4.6% in developing countries. (Source: adapted from IMF, World Economic Outlook 2019)
(a) Which one of the following best describes an increase in real GDP? (1) A Actual economic growth B Negative output gap C Positive output gap D Potential economic growth
June 2024 · Paper 2 · Q4(a) 1 mark Multiple choice
Data and extracts for question 44 Real GDP Trend GDP growth C Actual GDP growth D A B Time
(a) Which one point on the trade cycle diagram above illustrates a boom? (1) A B C D
June 2024 · AS Paper 2 · Q6(c) 6 marks AO1=2, AO2=2, AO3=2 Short answer
Data and extracts for question 6UK monetary policy since the Global Financial Crisis of 2008 Figure 1: UK inflation rate (as measured by the Consumer Prices Index) and UK nominal wage growth, annual percentage change, 2008 to 2019 5 % 4 Nominal wage growth 3 Inflation rate 2 1 0 –1 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘13 ‘14 ‘15 ‘16 ‘17 ‘18 ‘19 (Source: adapted from ONS) Figure 2: UK real GDP, annual percentage change, Q4 2006 to Q4 2019 2 % 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 (Source: adapted from https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/ grossdomesticproductgdp/timeseries/ihyq/qna) Extract A Has monetary policy worked? Between 2008 and 2009, financial markets around the world were crashing and many UK banks were adversely affected by the collapse of the housing market. This reduced access to credit for UK households and businesses. Faced with these large risks, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Bank of 5 England reduced the base interest rate from 5.25% in February 2008 to 0.5% in March 2009. The MPC had known that reducing the base interest rate was not enough alone. It drafted the use of a new idea: quantitative easing (QE). It had bought assets worth £200 billion by November 2009. This QE was later implemented by the USA’s Federal 10 Reserve, and was claimed to be a success. In July 2012 the total spent on QE in the UK amounted to £375 billion. This decision has been credited with preventing the recession, caused by the Global Financial Crisis of 2008, turning into another Great Depression. The UK’s unemployment rate peaked at 8.5% in 2009 but had fallen to 4% in 2019, the lowest since the mid-1970s. 15 In 2016 the MPC further expanded its QE programme by £60 billion and reduced the base interest rate to 0.25%. Households with mortgages benefitted from the low interest rate, enabling them to continue consumption and therefore helping economic recovery. Nevertheless, this has resulted in a rise in household debts. Borrowing on credit cards and personal loans has increased above the levels seen before 2008. 20 Inflation caused by the fall in the exchange rate of the British pound, higher employment levels and nominal wage growth has since directed the MPC to increase base interest rates. It increased the base interest rate to 0.5% in November 2017, and then to 0.75% in March 2018. However, the uncertainty around the UK’s future trade relationship with the EU has meant that increases in the base interest rate were only marginal. 25 Many economists believe that if the UK and the EU are unable to form a trade agreement, base interest rates would need to be decreased again and QE expanded. Conversely, a few economists have argued that QE is no longer effective as a monetary policy instrument. They indicated that the base interest rate was usually reduced by as much as 5% during previous recessions. This is more than the UK can currently manage. Therefore 30 it would also require the government to implement a fiscal policy to deal with any future economic downturn. The Bank of England is, nonetheless, preparing for the worst-case scenario of a recession deeper than the downturn after the Global Financial Crisis of 2008. (Source: adapted from ‘The verdict on 10 years of quantitative easing’, Richard Partington, The Guardian, https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/ mar/08/the-verdict-on-10-years-of-quantitative-easing)
(c) With reference to the information provided, explain two characteristics of a recession. (6)
June 2023 · Paper 2 · Q3(b) 2 marks AO1=1, AO3=1 Short answer
Data and extracts for question 33 UK real GDP, 2020–2022 Annual percentage change on Total (£ millions) previous year 2020 –9.9% 2 045 091 2021 7.5% 2 198 473 2022* 3.5% *2022 figures are forecast (Source: adapted from https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp)
(b) Explain one likely cost of UK real GDP falling by 9.9% in 2020. (2)
June 2023 · Paper 2 · Q3(c) 1 mark Multiple choice
Data and extracts for question 33 UK real GDP, 2020–2022 Annual percentage change on Total (£ millions) previous year 2020 –9.9% 2 045 091 2021 7.5% 2 198 473 2022* 3.5% *2022 figures are forecast (Source: adapted from https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp)
(c) Which one of the following is most likely to lead to an increase in potential economic growth? (1) An increase in: A consumption B costs of raw materials and energy C income tax D technological advances
June 2023 · AS Paper 2 · Q5(b) 3 marks AO1=1, AO2=1, AO3=1 Short answer
Data and extracts for question 55 The chart below shows UK real GDP growth rate (%), Quarter 1 (Q1) 2019 to Quarter 3 (Q3) 2021. 20 17.6 % 10 5.4 1.5 1.1 0.6 0.5 0.1 0 0 -1.3 -2.6 -10 -19.4 -20 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2019 2019 2019 2019 2020 2020 2020 2020 2021 2021 2021 (Source adapted from: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/gdp-growth)
(b) With reference to the chart, explain one likely benefit of economic growth to firms. (3)
June 2023 · Paper 2 · Q6(c) 12 marks AO1=2, AO2=2, AO3=4, AO4=4 12-mark response
Data and extracts for question 6Trade and development in Africa Figure 1: Intra- and extra-regional exports as a percentage of total exports, 2020 Europe Asia North America Africa Latin America/Caribbean 0 20 40 60 80 100 (%) Intra: within a region Extra: outside a region (Source: adapted from https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2022/03/26/ why-it-costs-so-much-to-move-goods-around-africa) Extract A: Why it costs so much to move goods around Africa Lorries carrying, among other things, cobalt from Congo, copper from Zambia and tea from Malawi queued for miles as they waited to cross the Limpopo river into South Africa. Many were there for days. Some drivers bribe their way to the front; 1 000 rand (£49) is the going rate. Others cannot afford to. 5 African politicians say they want to end such delays. The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) regional trade agreement, so far agreed by 41 of Africa’s 55 countries, could boost the region’s economies by making it easier to trade between themselves. In 2020 just 18% of exports were to other African countries (see Figure 1), lower than the equivalent in North America (30%), Asia (58%) or Europe (68%). More trade within the 10 region could lead to more jobs, higher wages and less poverty. The AfCFTA pledges to improve trade in two ways. The first is by reducing tariffs. This could boost intra‑African trade by 15% to 25%, says the IMF. The second is to reduce non‑tariff barriers which could cause a 50% rise in intra‑African trade. Poor infrastructure is a major barrier to trade. Africa’s land area is bigger than China, 15 India, the United States and much of Europe combined. Yet its railway network is not very much bigger than France’s and Germany’s put together. Many lines were built by colonial companies to link mines to ports, rather than countries to one another. Newer Chinese‑built railways across African borders are under‑used, either because they struggle to compete on price with road transport or because they lack additional services 20 such as storage yards. Ports are small and slow. Cargo waits for more than two weeks on average, compared to less than a week in Asia, Europe and Latin America. Handling costs are around 50% higher than in other parts of the world. Nearly 90% of transport of goods goes by road, of which there are not enough. Road 25 quality is poor. Just 800 000 km of the total of 2.8 million km in sub‑Saharan Africa are paved. The IMF estimates that if the quality of Africa’s infrastructure were brought up to the global average this would increase intra‑African trade by 7%. However, even bigger gains could be made by improving how trade flows. The key problem is a lack of information. 30 In much of the world large firms can buy space on trains or lorries as they need it. But in Africa, where markets for this do not exist, firms such as miners have to sign long‑term contracts with larger transport firms in which they agree to pay for capacity, whether they use it all or not. (Source: adapted from https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2022/03/26/ why-it-costs-so-much-to-move-goods-around-africa) Extract B: Economic reform in Angola When the new president, João Lourenço, took power in the southern African country of Angola in 2017, he pledged to reform the economy. This is a challenging task. The oil industry accounts for nearly all of Angola’s exports and two‑thirds of government revenues. The government is heavily involved in oil production along with significant 5 foreign direct investment from international firms such as Chevron and Total. Declining production and falling oil prices brought about a collapse in GDP and rapidly rising debts to China and the IMF. To reduce the cost of debt repayments, improve the country’s fiscal position, and support a steadily declining debt‑to‑GDP ratio, the government of Angola has opted for debt 10 relief. Together with a complete stop on debt repayments for the next three years, Angola will gain additional cash flow of $6.9 billion in 2020–22. This will help bring Angola’s total annual borrowing to a much more manageable level of around 8.7% of GDP. With improved finances the government will have more money to spend supporting the economy and providing vital public services to its citizens, over 17 million of whom still 15 live in absolute poverty. The IMF, which has since 2018 agreed to lend $4.5 billion to Angola, is also encouraged by the country’s fiscal policies. The finance minister, Vera Daves de Sousa, wants the state oil firm to sell shares to the public and for over one hundred state firms to be privatised. There have been delays – just 34 sales have taken place so far. But, she says, private firms 20 must be the ‘main driver’ of growth and the economy must diversify away from oil. Since 2019 Angola has ended government intervention in the foreign exchange market and moved towards a floating exchange rate. This led to a rapid depreciation in the kwanza (the Angolan currency) before stabilising after a few months. (Sources: adapted from https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2021/02/20/ joao-lourencos-reforms-in-angola-are-pleasing-the-imf, https://www.cabri-sbo.org/en/ blog/2021/country-spotlight-angolas-commitment-to-prudent-and-proactive-public-debt- management, and https://www.focus-economics.com/countries/angola/news/special/ kwanza-dives-to-all-time-low-as-central-bank-floats-the-currency)
(c) Discuss the impact of improved transport links between African countries on economic growth rates. (12)
June 2022 · Paper 2 · Q4(a) 1 mark Multiple choice
Data and extracts for question 44 The trade cycle Real GDP Positive output gap Trend GDP Z Actual GDP Time
(a) At point Z on the diagram, which one of the following is likely to occur? An increase in: (1) A absolute poverty B budget deficit C cyclical unemployment D inflation
June 2022 · AS Paper 2 · Q6(d) 5 marks AO1=1, AO2=2, AO3=2 Short answer
Data and extracts for question 6UK investment and productivity Figure 1: UK investment, annual percentage change, 2014 to 2019 10 % 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 (Source adapted from: https://www.ft.com/content/5e12351e-baaf-11e9-96bd-8e884d3ea203) Figure 2: UK labour productivity, annual percentage change, 2014 to 2019 2 % 1 0 -1 -2 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 (Source adapted from: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/oct/08/uk-productivity- brexit-boris-johnson-labour) Extract A Another recession? For the first time in nearly seven years, the UK economy contracted by 0.2% in the second quarter of 2019. This was as a result of a significantly weaker than expected performance in almost every part of the UK economy. Business investment has been weak across the world, but it is particularly low in the UK. 5 Firms are reluctant to commit to capital spending while there is economic uncertainty. Growth in investment, in areas such as transport and machinery, has slowed. Global trade tensions are also affecting investment decisions. Labour productivity decreased by 0.5% in the second quarter of 2019, the worst performance since mid-2014. Declining productivity is a concern especially as it 10 comes at a time when the unemployment rate has been one of the lowest. The rate of unemployment decreased from 6% in July 2014 to 3.8% in July 2019. The UK’s economic growth has been held back by low investment and productivity since the Global Financial Crisis of 2008. Moreover, the uncertainty over the UK’s future trade relationship with the EU has discouraged companies from investing in productivity- 15 boosting technology. This has decreased the prospects for increases in workers’ pay. Without business investment and improvements in productivity, short-term growth in real GDP is likely to slow further and reduce living standards. However, the UK Government expects the UK economy to perform better than Germany and Italy. These export-focused countries are highly exposed to the slowdown in world 20 trade and the fall in average global incomes. The UK economy is seeing continued strength in consumer spending. Consumption will support growth, provided there is no sudden shock to the UK labour market. Household incomes are strong, primarily due to high employment. Government expenditure has also been rising since the end of 2018. The UK Government has promised more money 25 for schools and infrastructure improvements. Despite this, some economists believe that the UK economy is likely to experience another recession. They claim that low income households cannot cope with a new downturn. The overall picture for the UK economy does not look promising because most businesses are reluctant to invest, productivity is low and economic growth relies on 30 continued consumption. (Source adapted from: ‘On the brink: Britain’s economy braced for Brexit shock’, FT, https:// www.ft.com/ content/40c604d2-c01c-11e9-89e2-41e555e96722; ‘Recession threat hangs over UK economy ahead of Brexit, FT, https://www.ft.com/content/5e12351e-baaf- 11e9-96bd-8e884d3ea203; ‘UK productivity falls at fastest pace in five years as Brexit dents investment, The Guardian, https://www.theguardian.com/ business/2019/oct/08/ uk-productivity-brexit-boris-johnson-labour)
(d) Explain one likely reason why ‘the UK Government expects the UK economy to perform better than Germany and Italy’ (Extract A, lines 19–20). (5)
June 2022 · AS Paper 2 · Q6(e) 15 marks AO1=3, AO2=3, AO3=3, AO4=6 15-mark response
Data and extracts for question 6UK investment and productivity Figure 1: UK investment, annual percentage change, 2014 to 2019 10 % 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 (Source adapted from: https://www.ft.com/content/5e12351e-baaf-11e9-96bd-8e884d3ea203) Figure 2: UK labour productivity, annual percentage change, 2014 to 2019 2 % 1 0 -1 -2 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 (Source adapted from: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/oct/08/uk-productivity- brexit-boris-johnson-labour) Extract A Another recession? For the first time in nearly seven years, the UK economy contracted by 0.2% in the second quarter of 2019. This was as a result of a significantly weaker than expected performance in almost every part of the UK economy. Business investment has been weak across the world, but it is particularly low in the UK. 5 Firms are reluctant to commit to capital spending while there is economic uncertainty. Growth in investment, in areas such as transport and machinery, has slowed. Global trade tensions are also affecting investment decisions. Labour productivity decreased by 0.5% in the second quarter of 2019, the worst performance since mid-2014. Declining productivity is a concern especially as it 10 comes at a time when the unemployment rate has been one of the lowest. The rate of unemployment decreased from 6% in July 2014 to 3.8% in July 2019. The UK’s economic growth has been held back by low investment and productivity since the Global Financial Crisis of 2008. Moreover, the uncertainty over the UK’s future trade relationship with the EU has discouraged companies from investing in productivity- 15 boosting technology. This has decreased the prospects for increases in workers’ pay. Without business investment and improvements in productivity, short-term growth in real GDP is likely to slow further and reduce living standards. However, the UK Government expects the UK economy to perform better than Germany and Italy. These export-focused countries are highly exposed to the slowdown in world 20 trade and the fall in average global incomes. The UK economy is seeing continued strength in consumer spending. Consumption will support growth, provided there is no sudden shock to the UK labour market. Household incomes are strong, primarily due to high employment. Government expenditure has also been rising since the end of 2018. The UK Government has promised more money 25 for schools and infrastructure improvements. Despite this, some economists believe that the UK economy is likely to experience another recession. They claim that low income households cannot cope with a new downturn. The overall picture for the UK economy does not look promising because most businesses are reluctant to invest, productivity is low and economic growth relies on 30 continued consumption. (Source adapted from: ‘On the brink: Britain’s economy braced for Brexit shock’, FT, https:// www.ft.com/ content/40c604d2-c01c-11e9-89e2-41e555e96722; ‘Recession threat hangs over UK economy ahead of Brexit, FT, https://www.ft.com/content/5e12351e-baaf- 11e9-96bd-8e884d3ea203; ‘UK productivity falls at fastest pace in five years as Brexit dents investment, The Guardian, https://www.theguardian.com/ business/2019/oct/08/ uk-productivity-brexit-boris-johnson-labour)
(e) With reference to the information provided, discuss the likely impact of a recession on the UK economy. (15)
November 2021 · Paper 3 · Q1(d) 25 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=8, AO4=9 25-mark essay Either/or
Data and extracts for question 1Hand car wash (HCW) firms in the UK Extract A What is the true human cost of your £5 hand car wash (HCW)? The UK’s hand car washes (HCWs) are extremely price competitive, but they have also been linked to modern slavery. Are they ever fair for workers? There is little agreement about how many HCWs there are in the UK. Estimates range from 10 000 to 20 000. This lack of accurate information about the industry makes 5 government regulation very difficult. Automated car washes, with their fierce rotating bristles, used to be the first option for drivers in a hurry. Now there is more choice. While the economy slows and incomes fail to keep up with inflation, demand for HCWs has grown. Many people see paying £5 for a car washed by someone else, rather than cleaning it at home, as a small expense which yields a high utility. But what is the true 10 cost of a £5 car wash – and what should we be paying? The growth of HCWs is partly the result of changes in the structure of industry in the UK. Many petrol stations have closed as drivers fill up at supermarkets. Garages and their forecourts have closed as cars become more reliable and locked into service agreements. The available sites for HCWs have therefore increased significantly and rents have fallen. 15 HCW entrepreneurs have identified available land and have benefitted from changes in the labour market, partly as a result of EU migration. UK drivers are now able to obtain cheap and effective hand car washing. For many migrants, car washes are a first job. “They accept car washing for a short period while they improve their language skills and move into other industries,” says Ian Clark, a professor of work and employment at 20 Nottingham Business School. “But there are also car-wash workers without networks who are in a dead end, working there for long periods.” Many drivers are only interested in getting the cheapest wash. If the price is very low, it probably means that workers are receiving less than the minimum wage and working in poor conditions. Crude calculations illustrate the problem. A £5 HCW employing five 25 workers for 10 hours a day would need to wash 79 cars a day to just cover the wage costs. This assumes the workers are paid the minimum wage. This is one car every seven and a half minutes. Even if the profit can be higher on valet services, the price of which can be as little as £12 for a full inside-and-out clean, it’s hard to see how a car wash price as low as £5 pays a living wage. This ignores all other costs which HCWs incur such as 30 business rates and rent. Evidence from car-wash workers is limited but Clark and others have been able to build a picture of some of the tougher conditions on drenched forecourts. “Like nail bars and small garment manufacturers, car washes are what we call ‘hard-to-reach places,’” Clark explains. As part of the research, Clark and his team spoke to workers from 45 HCWs in 35 the Midlands. Clark and his team met and observed workers who lacked waterproof boots or trousers, or hi-vis jackets and gloves. “They’re spraying around hydrochloric acid solution for alloy wheels, breathing in the vapour and fumes,” Clark says. Some workers were paid a little over half the minimum wage. 40 (Source adapted from: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jul/16/true-human-cost- 5-pound-hand-car-wash-modern-slavery) Extract B Government intervention in the HCW industry There are three main areas of government intervention that might impact on labour intensive firms such as HCWs: First, there is the planning issue which focuses on the impact on the environment, for example, the disposal and recycling of waste water and chemicals. There could be 5 planning regulations to prevent the use of tarmac rather than concrete on forecourts. Tarmac allows waste water and chemicals to seep into the sub soil. It could also be a requirement to have a sludge trap to stop the waste entering waterways. Second, there is the health and safety issue for workers. Prolonged exposure to chemicals and lack of protective clothing puts the health of workers at risk. Performance targets 10 could involve minimum levels of protective clothing and rest breaks for the workers. Third, there is the issue of tax. The informal nature of the business type makes tax evasion easier. Not all UK HCWs violate regulations. There are legitimate, regulated HCW firms as well as examples of good practice by independent outlets. One national supermarket, Tesco, 15 has banned all independent hand car washes from its car parks. It is now in a partnership agreement with national car wash operator Waves. It uses a WashMark certificate of quality and compliance which was introduced by the industry to improve working conditions. Other major supermarkets are considering similar changes. One adviser believes £9 is a reasonable minimum price for a basic wash. Some pressure groups have 20 developed a mobile phone app where evidence of unreasonable conditions can be reported by drivers. Involving drivers in the issue, and making them demand fairer car washes, creates an incentive for good businesses to improve practices and come forward to get a WashMark certificate. 25 (Source adapted from: https://www.parliament.uk/documents/commons-committees/ environmental-audit/Hand-Car-Wash-evidence.pdf research into HCWs by Professor Ian Clark, Nottingham Business School May 2018)
(d) Evaluate the microeconomic and macroeconomic factors which determine the number of firms in an industry. Refer to HCWs or another industry of your choice. (25)
November 2021 · Paper 3 · Q2(d) 25 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=8, AO4=9 25-mark essay Either/or
Data and extracts for question 2The German economy Figure 1: German government budget balance, percentage of GDP, 2010 to 2019 1.9 2 1.5 1.2 1.2 0.9 0.6 0 0 –0.1 –1 % of GDP –2 –4 –4.2 –6 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 (Source adapted from: The Economist Nov 14th 2019) Figure 2: German national debt, percentage of GDP, 2010 to 2019 85 80 75 70 % of GDP 65 60 55 0 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 (Source adapted from: The Economist Nov 14th 2019) Figure 3: Annual percentage change in real GDP, Germany and average of developed economies, 2005 to 2021 (forecasted data for 2020 and 2021) 4 2 0 % –2 –4 –6 2005 2010 2015 2020 Germany Average of developed economies (Source adapted from: IMF and German Federal Statistical Office) Figure 4: Unemployment rate in Germany, percentage of labour force, 2005 to 2020 (2020 figure is forecasted) 12.5 11 . 7 % 10 . 8 % 10.0 9 % 8 . 1 % 7 . 7 % 7 . 8 % 7.5 7 . 1 % 6 . 8 % 6 . 9 % 6 . 7 % 6 . 4 % 6 . 1 % 6 . 1 % % 5 . 7 % 5 . 2 % 5 % 5.0 2.5 0 (Source adapted from: bundesagentur für arbeit.de and https://www.ft.com/ content/5486b247-c73e-4887-a2b2-528b23e301a6) Extract C Why Germany keeps to budget rules despite a slowdown in growth Germany’s economic boom is over, as it has entered recession. During the last ten years of economic growth well over 4 million jobs were created. The fear of recession has revived a debate in Germany: should the government spend more to stimulate growth? It is written into the German constitution that the fiscal 5 deficit cannot be greater than 0.35% of GDP, once the effects of the economic cycle have been removed. Germany’s budget has been in surplus since 2014 and the government is always reluctant to increase spending which would create a deficit. In 2018, aided by booming employment and low interest costs on existing debt, the budget ran to a surplus 1.9% of GDP. 10 Germany’s main trading partners have long been angered by German fiscal policy. The French President criticised Germany’s budget and current account surpluses that “always occur at the expense of others”. Large parts of Germany’s infrastructure need significant investment. As the economy has slowed, a decision to run a balanced-budget policy has become harder to defend. In 15 wealthy regions of Germany, crumbling schools have been closed for fear of collapse, and information and mobile technology on a wide scale needs to be modernised. The World Economic Forum reported that accessibility of fibre optic broadband also “remains the privilege of the few”. However, private sector firms, such as major motor manufacturers, are still willing to invest in new technology and the profitability of some of these 20 firms, in the long run, benefits as a result. The state development bank puts Germany’s investment shortfall at €138 billion (£120 billion). Arguments for a much more expansionary fiscal policy have failed to influence government policy. Big government programmes, such as a recent package to reduce Germany’s carbon emissions, are only implemented when they satisfy fiscal rules. 25 (Source adapted from: The Economist Nov 14th 2019 and https://www.ft.com/content/3cec4908-d164-11e9-8367-807ebd53ab77 7th September 2019 and https://www.ft.com/content/198f072e-4e42-11ea-95a0-43d18ec715f5 and https://www.ft.com/content/d89d9404-c586-11e9-a8e9-296ca66511c9 and https://www.ft.com/content/8f87c03c-93dc-11e8-b67b-b8205561c3fe) Extract D Germany drops to number 7 in the Global Competitiveness Index Despite being the largest economy in the European Union, Germany’s competitiveness is declining, according to the World Economic Forum (WEF). Germany dropped four places in the WEF’s Global Competitiveness Index, coming in as the seventh-most competitive economy. Out of the 103 indicators used in the report, Germany received lower scores in 5 53 areas in 2019. (Source: https://www.dw.com/en/germany-falls-in-global-competitiveness- ranking/a-50745071 8 October 2019)
(d) Evaluate the microeconomic and macroeconomic factors which are likely to determine the rate of economic growth in Germany relative to other developed economies. (25)
October 2020 · Paper 2 · Q5(b) 1 mark Multiple choice
Data and extracts for question 55 The Hong Kong‑Zhuhai‑Macau Bridge is the world’s longest sea bridge. It reduces the journey time from Hong Kong to Zhuhai from 4 hours to just 30 minutes. It cost the equivalent of $18.8 billion and was government funded. (Source adapted from: www.theguardian.com)
(b) Which one of the following would be most likely to solve a negative output gap problem in a domestic economy? An increase in (1) A government funding to the World Bank B government spending on foreign aid C government spending on public transport D income tax
October 2020 · AS Paper 2 · Q6(e) 15 marks AO1=3, AO2=3, AO3=3, AO4=6 15-mark response Hard
Data and extracts for question 6UK government budget and household consumption Figure 1: UK government spending and tax revenue as % of GDP, 1980–2018 50 45 40 35 30 25 0 1980 2018 1990 2000 2010 Government spending Government tax revenue (Source: adapted from Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), http://cdn.obr.uk/EFO- MaRch_2018.pdf © Crown copyright 2018) Figure 2: UK real household consumption, quarterly, £ billions, 1997 to 2018 (Source: adapted from ONS, www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/satelliteaccounts/ bulletins/consumertrends/apriltojune2018) Extract A UK household consumption Despite the slow growth in real household disposable incomes, consumer spending rose in 2017. Annual spending per person increased by £589, when compared with 2016. This may have reflected UK households’ delay in adjusting to the increase in inflation that was associated with the fall in the exchange rate of the British pound. The increase 5 in consumption has also been driven by low interest rates. In 2017 UK house prices increased by an average of 5.1%. UK consumers have financed most of their spending by borrowing on credit cards in order to maintain their living standards. In 2017 borrowing on credit cards rose by 9.6%, the second-highest level since before the financial crisis. This has increased the Bank of 10 England’s concerns about the sustainability of borrowing, given the slow growth in real incomes. The Bank has also indicated that the base interest rate was likely to rise faster than previously expected. More expensive credit could therefore constrain the ability of households to spend. (Source: adapted from ‘Consumer Trends UK’, ONS, https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/ nationalaccounts/ satelliteaccounts/bulletins/consumertrends/octobertodecember2017 and © Crown copyright 2018) Extract B Reduction of the UK’s budget deficit Since 2010 many economists have believed that the biggest problem facing the government was the rising budget deficit. In late 2017, the UK’s Chancellor of the Exchequer announced that the government would continue with its plans to decrease its budget deficit. To address this issue, the government further reduced welfare payments 5 and introduced extra spending cuts in the public sector. The UK government had estimated that the fall in UK productivity since the financial crisis was only temporary. However, it has now accepted that this fall in the level of productivity is a long-term issue. Subsequently, the UK’s forecast long-term trend rate of growth was reduced. Slower growth means lower tax receipts, higher spending and a 10 bigger budget deficit. Some economists have suggested that the government should not pursue additional reductions in the budget deficit. They have also claimed that the responsibility of the government is not to balance the budget but to balance the economy by moving it to full employment. 15 (Source: adapted from ‘Philip Hammond must ditch deficit reduction and invest. But will he?’, The Guardian, https:// www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/nov/19/philip-hammond-must-ditch-deficit- reduction-and-invest-but-will-he’)
(e) Discuss the factors that might explain why ‘the UK’s forecast long-term trend rate of growth was reduced’ (Extract B lines 9–10). (15)
June 2019 · AS Paper 2 · Q2(b) 2 marks AO1=2 Short answer
Price level 0 Real output (b) Explain what is meant by spare capacity in an economy. (2)
June 2018 · AS Paper 2 · Q2(a) 1 mark AO1=1 Definition
(a) Define the term ‘recession’. (1)
June 2018 · AS Paper 2 · Q2(b) 2 marks AO1=2 Short answer
(b) Explain one characteristic of a recession. (2)
June 2018 · AS Paper 2 · Q2(c) 1 mark Multiple choice
(c) Which point on the trade cycle diagram illustrates a negative output gap? (1) Real GDP Trend GDP growth Actual GDP growth D C A B Time A B C D
June 2017 · AS Paper 2 · Q3(c) 1 mark AO1=1 Diagram
Data and extracts for question 33 Real GDP in selected economies (the base year 2008=100) 110 108 106 104 102 Index 100 98 96 94 92 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 France Italy United Kingdom (Source: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/q1-2014- -may-gdp-update/sty-gdp-g7-economies.html?format=print)
(c) Illustrate a negative output gap on the diagram below. (1) Price AS level P1 AD Y1 Real output
June 2017 · AS Paper 2 · Q6(f) 20 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=6, AO4=6 20-mark essay Either/or
Data and extracts for question 6UK economic recovery Figure 1: Components of aggregate demand in selected countries 2014 Government Exports - Country Consumption Investment spending Imports UK 66% 14% 21% –2% Germany 57% 17% 19% 6% France 57% 20% 25% –2% China 34% 49% 14% 3% NB: Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding calculations. (Source: World Bank 2014) Figure 2: Nominal GDP per capita at Purchasing Power Parities (PPPs) (the base year 2000=100) 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 France Germany United Kingdom (Source: https://www.imf.org) Extract A The UK economy – a strange recovery At the Autumn Statement in November 2015, the Chancellor of the Exchequer had good reason to cheer his economic record. The UK economy appeared to have returned towards its long-term trend in the rate of economic growth. GDP growth has remained strong, with output rising at the highest rate in the G7 group of seven major industrialised countries. Unemployment continued to drop and business 5 investment grew by 5%. However, a number of concerns remain, particularly in relation to the UK’s current account deficit, which reached a record high of 6% of GDP in the third quarter of 2014. This was primarily a result of a sharp decline in the rate of return on UK investments overseas. Low export growth meant that the UK’s trade deficit persisted. 10 In 2012, the Chancellor had announced a target for the UK to export £1 trillion of goods and services by 2020, which would require an annual growth rate of 8%. However, the annual growth in UK exports had reached just 2.7%. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecast that UK exports will only reach £630 billion by 2020 – a third lower than the government’s target. 15 Exports in services continued to grow in 2015, but the UK’s goods industries were struggling. It was particularly concerning that data showed output in the UK’s construction and manufacturing industries falling. Indeed, the output of the manufacturing sector remained 6.3% below its pre-recession peak. Households, meanwhile, are set to become even more indebted over the coming years. 20 It is projected that the household gross debt to income ratio will rise by 26 percentage points between 2015 to 2020, returning to levels last seen before the Global Financial Crisis. The economy did not appear to be rebalancing away from consumer driven growth towards export-led growth, making another recession almost inevitable. Fundamental to this problem is the UK’s low productivity, which in 2015 remains 25 around 20 percentage points below the average for the rest of the G7. It is vital that the government tackles this problem, particularly in the sectors that are currently facing difficulties. This will require relaxing the planning system to promote more house-building, the removal of burdens on UK manufacturers such as carbon taxes, finally getting shale gas exploration going, and reforming apprenticeships to rapidly 30 improve skills in construction, manufacturing and technology. (Source: adapted from http://www.cityam.com/229481/chancellor-beware- uk-not-out-woods-yet, 25 November 2015 by Daniel Mahoney)
(f) Evaluate the benefits of economic growth to the UK given that ‘a number of concerns remain’ in the UK economy (Extract A, line 7). (20)
June 2017 · AS Paper 2 · Q6(g) 20 marks AO1=4, AO2=4, AO3=6, AO4=6 20-mark essay Either/or
Data and extracts for question 6UK economic recovery Figure 1: Components of aggregate demand in selected countries 2014 Government Exports - Country Consumption Investment spending Imports UK 66% 14% 21% –2% Germany 57% 17% 19% 6% France 57% 20% 25% –2% China 34% 49% 14% 3% NB: Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding calculations. (Source: World Bank 2014) Figure 2: Nominal GDP per capita at Purchasing Power Parities (PPPs) (the base year 2000=100) 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 France Germany United Kingdom (Source: https://www.imf.org) Extract A The UK economy – a strange recovery At the Autumn Statement in November 2015, the Chancellor of the Exchequer had good reason to cheer his economic record. The UK economy appeared to have returned towards its long-term trend in the rate of economic growth. GDP growth has remained strong, with output rising at the highest rate in the G7 group of seven major industrialised countries. Unemployment continued to drop and business 5 investment grew by 5%. However, a number of concerns remain, particularly in relation to the UK’s current account deficit, which reached a record high of 6% of GDP in the third quarter of 2014. This was primarily a result of a sharp decline in the rate of return on UK investments overseas. Low export growth meant that the UK’s trade deficit persisted. 10 In 2012, the Chancellor had announced a target for the UK to export £1 trillion of goods and services by 2020, which would require an annual growth rate of 8%. However, the annual growth in UK exports had reached just 2.7%. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecast that UK exports will only reach £630 billion by 2020 – a third lower than the government’s target. 15 Exports in services continued to grow in 2015, but the UK’s goods industries were struggling. It was particularly concerning that data showed output in the UK’s construction and manufacturing industries falling. Indeed, the output of the manufacturing sector remained 6.3% below its pre-recession peak. Households, meanwhile, are set to become even more indebted over the coming years. 20 It is projected that the household gross debt to income ratio will rise by 26 percentage points between 2015 to 2020, returning to levels last seen before the Global Financial Crisis. The economy did not appear to be rebalancing away from consumer driven growth towards export-led growth, making another recession almost inevitable. Fundamental to this problem is the UK’s low productivity, which in 2015 remains 25 around 20 percentage points below the average for the rest of the G7. It is vital that the government tackles this problem, particularly in the sectors that are currently facing difficulties. This will require relaxing the planning system to promote more house-building, the removal of burdens on UK manufacturers such as carbon taxes, finally getting shale gas exploration going, and reforming apprenticeships to rapidly 30 improve skills in construction, manufacturing and technology. (Source: adapted from http://www.cityam.com/229481/chancellor-beware- uk-not-out-woods-yet, 25 November 2015 by Daniel Mahoney)
(g) Evaluate the view that another recession is ‘inevitable’ in the UK (Extract A, line 24). (20)
June 2017 · Paper 3 · Q2(a) 5 marks AO1=2, AO2=2, AO3=1 Diagram
Data and extracts for question 2The UK economy Figure 4: UK national debt as a percentage of GDP 90 Forecast 80 70 60 % of 50 GDP 40 30 20 10 0 (Source: http://budgetresponsibility.org.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/BriefGuide_020511.pdf) Figure 5: UK fiscal deficit, public sector net borrowing (PSNB) 80 Forecast 40 £ billion 0 –40 –80 –120 –160 (Source: http://budgetresponsibility.org.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/BriefGuide_020511.pdf) Figure 6: Labour productivity per head, selected countries UK Spain France Indices: 2008 Q1(base) = 100 120 115 110 105 100 Index 95 90 85 80 75 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 (Source: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/ quarterlybulletin/2014/qb14q201.pdf) Extract C The National Living Wage (NLW) The Government has announced that from 2016 it will introduce a Living Wage Premium that will apply on top of the National Minimum Wage (NMW) for employees aged 25 and over to deliver a National Living Wage (NLW) for those people. The main NMW will continue to be set for all employees aged 21 and over, so that those aged 21 to 24 will 5 continue to be subject only to that rate. The effective minimum wage for the 25+ age group will therefore be over 13% higher in 2020 than would otherwise have been the case, and result in a 0.3% increase in wage costs overall. Further impacts on real GDP are estimated to be higher productivity (+0.3%) but lower average hours worked (-0.2%) and higher unemployment. Overall real 10 GDP is forecast to fall by 0.1% as a result of the NLW. However these forecasts depend on estimates of the likely elasticity of demand for labour. Academic evidence suggests that changes to the NMW since 1999 have led to only limited effects on demand for labour in the UK. The types of work that will be affected are relatively labour intensive, which may limit the scope for firms to substitute towards 15 using capital. Firms may also be expected to shift demand in favour of the under-25s given that they will not be subject to the NLW, which all else being equal would lead to a smaller reduction in overall labour demand. Some of the reduction in employees could also be partially offset by a rise in self-employment. But increasing the NLW to a higher proportion of median earnings may lead to bigger effects than have been experienced in 20 the past. (Sources: adapted from http://cdn.budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/ July-2015-EFO-234224.pdf and http://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/) Extract D The productivity puzzle in the UK Since the onset of the 2007–2008 financial crisis, labour productivity growth in the UK has been exceptionally weak. Despite some modest improvements in 2013, whole-economy output per hour remains around 16% below the level implied by its pre-crisis trend. Even taking into account possible measurement issues and changes 5 in the size of the service sector, this shortfall is large and is often referred to as the ‘productivity puzzle’. Measures of productivity can be used to inform estimates of an economy’s ability to grow without generating excessive inflationary pressure, which makes understanding recent movements important for the conduct of monetary policy. During the initial phases 10 of the recession, companies appear to have acted flexibly by holding on to labour and lowering levels of capacity utilisation in response to weak demand conditions. But the protracted weakness in productivity and the strength in employment growth over the past two years suggest that other factors are likely to be having a more persistent impact on the level of productivity. These factors are reduced investment in both physical and 15 intangible capital, such as innovation and training, and failings in the labour market such as immobility of labour and under-employment of skilled workers. Some economists explain this by using the concept of an output gap. (Source: adapted from http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/ Documents/quarterlybulletin/2014/qb14q201.pdf)
(a) With reference to Extract D (line 18), explain the meaning of the term ‘output gap’. Use an aggregate demand and aggregate supply diagram in your answer. (5)
June 2016 · AS Paper 2 · Q2(c) 1 mark AO1=1 Diagram
Data and extracts for question 22 The table below shows GDP per capita at purchasing power parities (PPPs) for a selection of European countries in 2013. GDP per capita Country (US$, at PPPs, 2013, rounded) UK 38 500 Spain 33 000 Italy 35 500 (Source: http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.CD)
(c) Diagram A shows the aggregate demand and aggregate supply for a country. Illustrate actual economic growth on Diagram A. (1) Diagram A Price Aggregate supply level P1 Aggregate demand Y1 Real output

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