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The financial sector and central banks Theme 4

Where it is examined
A-level Paper 2 (and Paper 3)
Level
A level only
Specification
Section 4.4, 3 statements
Since 2016
10 question parts: 0 essays, 3 levels-marked responses, 2 multiple-choice items

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June 2024 · Paper 2 · Q3(a) 4 marks AO1=2, AO2=1, AO3=1 Short answer
Data and extracts for question 33 A group of banks, including Barclays and JP Morgan, have been fined more than €1 billion by the EU’s competition authorities for rigging the foreign exchange market after the Global Financial Crisis of 2008. The EU found that traders at the banks had used online chat rooms to share information about customers’ orders, prices and other trading activities in order to manipulate the currency markets. (Source: adapted from https://www.ft.com/content/73163fa0- 77c5-11e9-bbad-7c18c0ea0201)
(a) With reference to the information above, explain what is meant by ‘market rigging’. (4)
June 2024 · Paper 2 · Q3(b) 1 mark Multiple choice
Data and extracts for question 33 A group of banks, including Barclays and JP Morgan, have been fined more than €1 billion by the EU’s competition authorities for rigging the foreign exchange market after the Global Financial Crisis of 2008. The EU found that traders at the banks had used online chat rooms to share information about customers’ orders, prices and other trading activities in order to manipulate the currency markets. (Source: adapted from https://www.ft.com/content/73163fa0- 77c5-11e9-bbad-7c18c0ea0201)
(b) Which one of the following is a role of financial markets? To: (1) A discourage saving B promote moral hazard C provide forward markets D restrict free trade
June 2024 · Paper 2 · Q6(d) 12 marks AO1=2, AO2=2, AO3=4, AO4=4 12-mark response
Data and extracts for question 6The UK Economy Figure 1: UK national debt, percentage of GDP, 2001–2021 100 % 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 (Source: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/ publicsectorfinance/bulletins/publicsectorfinances/december2021) Figure 2: UK fiscal deficit, percentage of GDP, 2001–2021 16 % 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 (Source: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/ publicsectorfinance/bulletins/publicsectorfinances/december2021) Figure 3: Interest rate on a 10-year UK government bond, July 2022 to March 2023 4.5 % 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 0 Sep 22 Jul 22 Aug 22 Oct 22 Nov 22 Dec 22 Jan 23 Feb 23 Mar 23 (Source: https://www.ft.com/content/ece962c3-b7e5-48c6-a0b1-06f9823a4853# post-ad2ac225-0543-49e7-9ed5-af9907e83697) Figure 4: Income tax rates for 2023–24, compared to 2022–23 2022–23 2023–24 Tax band Income threshold Tax rate Income threshold Tax rate Personal Up to £12 570 0% Up to £12 570 0% allowance 20% 20% Basic rate £12 571–£50 270 £12 571–£50 270 Higher rate £50 271–£150 000 40% £50 271–£125 140 40% Additional rate Over £150 000 45% Over £125 140 45% (Source: Gov.uk) Extract A Freeze in income tax thresholds from 2023 onwards The freeze on the personal allowance, and the basic and higher-rate income tax bands in England, Wales and Northern Ireland will be extended to April 2028. While this freeze may not look like a tax rise on the face of it, having thresholds that fail to rise in line with salaries, people will still end up paying more tax on their income – particularly if they end 5 up in a higher tax band as a result. The biggest change announced in the Autumn Statement 2022 was the reduction of the additional-rate income tax threshold, dropping from £150 000 to £125 140 from 6 April 2023. It is estimated around 250 000 taxpayers will be pushed into the additional rate tax band, paying 45% tax on any income above the new limit. 10 The Chancellor said lowering the additional rate threshold means that a person earning £150 000 will pay an extra £1 200 income tax per year. (Source adapted from: https://www.which.co.uk/news/article/6- tax-changes-to-watch-out-for-in-2023) Extract B UK Monetary Policy Decisions At a special meeting on 19th March 2020, the monetary policy committee of the Bank of England announced further measures to help support the UK economy during the global health crisis. It voted to reduce the base rate of interest to 0.1% and restart the quantitative easing programme by buying £200 billion of UK government bonds and 5 corporate bonds. This followed a number of announcements by the UK government to try and limit the damage of the deep recession the country was facing and reduce the chances of deflation occurring in the UK. Government borrowing grew massively during 2020 and 2021 to fund support for businesses and workers. However, since then the monetary policy committee has rapidly increased the base 10 rate of interest – which reached 4% in February 2023. The UK government’s long-term borrowing costs are higher today than they were before former prime minister Liz Truss’s £45 billion proposed tax cuts caused the interest rate on 30-year government bonds to briefly rise above 5%, which almost caused a financial crisis. The Bank’s use of quantitative easing (QE) has also come in for criticism, with former 15 governor of the Bank of England Mervyn King saying that the decision to keep pumping money into the economy during the global health crisis was a mistake that fuelled inflation. He said: ‘central banks decided it was a good time to print a lot of money. That was a mistake [as] we had too much money chasing too few goods’. Experts have argued this pushed inflation higher in the UK by stimulating aggregate 20 demand. However, critics say QE does not cause inflation as most of the extra money is contained in the financial system and does not affect consumption and investment. Higher interest rates on the national debt may limit the ability of the UK government to increase spending on supply-side policies needed to boost economic growth, such as a £20 billion plan to transform carbon capture in the UK, which would create jobs and 25 support a move to cleaner electricity generation and technology. (Source: adapted from: https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and- minutes/2020/monetary-policy-summary-for-the-special-monetary-policy-committee- meeting-on-19-march-2020 and https://www.ft.com)
(d) With reference to Extract B, discuss the use of quantitative easing in preventing deflation. (12)
June 2023 · Paper 3 · Q2(a) 5 marks AO1=2, AO2=2, AO3=1 Short answer
Data and extracts for question 2Changes in the nature of UK towns and cities Figure 3: Growing and declining high street firms – net change in store numbers, 2013–2022 Barbers Beauty salons Cafés and tearooms Nail salons Restaurants Fashion shops Estate agents Post Office services Clothes – women Banks and other financial institutions –4 000 –3 000 –2 000 –1 000 0 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 5 000 Net increase/decrease in store numbers (Source: adapted from https://www2.deloitte.com/uk/en/pages/consumer- business/articles/what-next-for-the-high-street.html) Figure 4: House price changes in the UK (%), 2005 to 2022 15 10 5 0 (%) –5 –10 –15 –20 2005 2010 2015 2020 2022 (Source: adapted from https://www.theguardian.com/money/2022/sep/28/ uk-house-prices-may-fall-20-amid-mortgage-carnage-warn-experts) Extract C What next for the high street? A high street is typically found in all UK towns and cities. Shops normally encountered in a typical UK high street can include successful small firms such as independent food retailers, cafés, nail and beauty salons, restaurants and charity shops. They differ from out‑of‑town shopping centres by being more diverse, family‑run and offering local or 5 personalised services. Customers are often very loyal. However, the high street may often have limited access by car or expensive parking facilities. The rise of online retailers such as Amazon and eBay have placed huge pressures on UK high streets, with many well‑known shops – and even successful retail chains – forced to close due to lost business. Many high street firms cannot compete on price with online 10 retailers who – because they frequently have very low fixed costs – can significantly undercut the high street shops on price. Even before online shopping, competition was eroding high street activity, with out‑of‑town retail parks that were not necessarily cheaper but provide a larger range of shops and offer plentiful parking. They offer a shopping experience that other retailing 15 cannot match – pleasant, safe pedestrian shopping, a clean environment, fun activities for children and spend‑the‑day‑there potential. While the list of retail and leisure failures might suggest that the high street does not have a future, some analysts argue the opposite. Many believe that the high street is ideally placed to reinvent itself in response to the structural shift in working and 20 shopping patterns that has resulted from the global health crisis 2020–22. The perceived weaknesses of the high street model – its fragmented ownership, lack of centralised coordination and high vacancy rates – become strengths as they lower the barriers to entry for new concepts and operators. They also enable risk taking and innovation that will ultimately lead to a more flourishing and diverse environment on our local high 25 streets. It should be possible for small firms to flourish even when staff shortages are pushing up wages in the high street, and house price falls damage consumer confidence and spending on perceived luxuries. (Source: adapted from https://www.designingbuildings.co.uk/ and https://www2.deloitte. com/uk/en/pages/consumer-business/articles/what-next-for-the-high-street.html) Extract D UK house prices may fall up to 20% Turmoil on the UK financial markets has prompted analysts to predict that house prices could fall dramatically, and many lenders in the mortgage sector are withdrawing deals. People coming to the end of their fixed‑rate mortgages are seeing rises from 2% to over 5.5%, with increases in the cost of borrowing of over £5 200 a year by 2024 for the 5 average mortgage in the UK. Many people think UK house prices will never fall, but analysts say the fall could be between 10% and 20%. One mortgage lender said that a lack of housing supply will not keep house prices up when mortgage interest rates are somewhere between 5% and 7%. He claimed that ‘the decade‑long property bubble is about to burst […] It’s a buyer’s market now’. The 10 greatest impact will be seen in the southeast of England. (Source: adapted from https://www.theguardian.com/money/2022/sep/28/ uk-house-prices-may-fall-20-amid-mortgage-carnage-warn-experts) Extract E UK job vacancies hit record 1.1 million as labour shortages increase The ratio of jobless people to vacancies is 1.45 to 1, lower than at any point in the last 40 years. Social care for example has 300 000 current unfilled posts. ‘Today’s figures show that labour shortages are now affecting the whole economy,’ said one analyst. ‘There are almost a million people fewer in the labour market, largely due to 5 younger people staying in education and older people dropping out of the workforce.’ The inactivity rate is 21.1%, and many people are not returning to work after the global health crisis. ‘People seeking work do not have the skills or availability that employers need,’ said Kitty Ussher, chief economist at the Institute of Directors. Firms offering higher wages does not solve the issue. 10 (Source: adapted from https://www.ft.com/content/463f4fbd- 3a50-45b5-891c-5cb5ba623df8)
(a) Using the data provided in Extract D, explain one role of financial markets. (5)
June 2022 · Paper 2 · Q5(a) 4 marks AO1=2, AO2=1, AO3=1 Short answer
Data and extracts for question 55 In May 2020, the UK government introduced a loan scheme to help small businesses survive the downturn in the economy. Small businesses could borrow up to £50 000 at an interest rate of 2.5% for up to 6 years from a bank. The government guaranteed 100% of the loans, to enable banks to issue them quickly, and only minimal checks were made on borrowers. (Source: adapted from https://www.ft.com/content/1ca15db2-93e4-4e34-877d-110309cd9716)
(a) With reference to the information above, explain one role of financial markets. (4)
June 2022 · Paper 2 · Q5(b) 1 mark Multiple choice
Data and extracts for question 55 In May 2020, the UK government introduced a loan scheme to help small businesses survive the downturn in the economy. Small businesses could borrow up to £50 000 at an interest rate of 2.5% for up to 6 years from a bank. The government guaranteed 100% of the loans, to enable banks to issue them quickly, and only minimal checks were made on borrowers. (Source: adapted from https://www.ft.com/content/1ca15db2-93e4-4e34-877d-110309cd9716)
(b) Which one of the following would be a risk if ‘only minimal checks were made on borrowers’ in this loan scheme? (1) A Asymmetric information B Crowding out C Market rigging D Speculation
June 2019 · Paper 2 · Q6(a) 5 marks AO1=2, AO2=2, AO3=1 Short answer
Data and extracts for question 6The UK economy since the financial crisis Figure 1: Pound sterling to US$ exchange rate, 2016-17 $ per £ 1.50 UK votes to leave the EU 1.40 UK general election announced 1.30 Price of £1 in US dollars 1.20 1.10 1.00 0 (Source: adapted from https://www.ft.com/content/ d50ce580-3968-11e7-ac89-b01cc67cfeec) Extract A UK companies use forward currency market The Norfolk-based picture frames maker Nielsen Bainbridge recently made forward contracts in the foreign exchange market to reduce the impact of currency fluctuations. The pound’s post-Brexit referendum depreciation has been a test of nerve for Nielsen Bainbridge and many other importers. At present the company’s suppliers are located 5 in Europe or China. “Currency therefore has a big impact on our business and the margins we can obtain,” says Ms Burdett, the Finance Director. Forward contracts enable institutions, businesses and individuals to lock in an exchange rate over a certain period of time regardless of how the rate moves during that time. Ms Burdett buys currency as soon as Nielsen Bainbridge confirms a large order as a way to fix costs. One third of UK 10 business managers are considering shifting from EU to UK suppliers. (Source: adapted from ’UK companies use pound strength to hedge forex risk’ by Roger Blitz, Markets, © FT.com, 16 May 2017. https://www.ft.com/content/ d50ce580-3968-11e7-ac89-b01cc67cfeec) Extract B Bank of England seeking to prevent future bank bailouts The Bank of England has ordered big lenders in the UK to find £116 billion of funding to ensure that taxpayers will never again have to bail out the banking sector. The Bank intends to publish details of how each of the big lenders would cope in the event they find themselves in a situation similar to Royal Bank of Scotland and Lloyds Banking 5 Group, which needed £65 billion of taxpayer bailouts during the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. This had a significant negative impact on the UK government’s national debt and, many would argue, increased the need for contractionary fiscal policy. Having said that, the UK government sold all its shares in Lloyds Banking Group in 2017 and, according to the Chancellor of the Exchequer, “recovered every penny of its investment in Lloyds”. 10 Sir Jon Cunliffe, the deputy governor at the Bank responsible for financial stability, said regulators needed to let banks fail in a similar way that traditional companies collapse. This has not been possible in the past because of the risk that savers lose their money and because a system did not exist to allow banks to be put into insolvency. “Just like when other businesses fail, losses arising from bank failure would be imposed 15 on shareholders and investors. This protects the public from loss and incentivises banks to operate more prudently,” said Cunliffe. (Source: adapted from ‘Bank of England tells lenders to find £116bn to help prevent bailouts’, by Jill Treanor, 02 October 2017, Copyright The Guardian News and Media Ltd https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/oct/02 /bank-of-england-bailouts-rbs-lloyds and ‘Lloyds bank bailout repaid in full, Philip Hammond claims’, by Jill Treanor, Larry Elliott, 21 April 2017, Copyright Guardian News & Media Ltd 2017 https://www.theguardian.com/business/ 2017/apr/21/lloyds-bank-bailout-repaid-in-full-philip-hammond-claims) Extract C Bank of England tells lenders to increase capital reserves The Bank of England has told lenders they will need to build a special reserve worth £11.4 billion by the end of 2018 as it tries to make banks more resilient to the risk posed by mounting consumer debt. This reserve of assets that can be readily turned into cash is a way of forcing banks to set aside capital reserves in good times in order to keep lending 5 to the wider economy at a steady level, even during an economic downturn. In 2017 the Bank of England told UK banks it would raise the reserve ratio, relative to all assets, from zero to 0.5% and also forecast a further increase to 1% by the end of 2017. The move is not intended to directly reduce consumer demand for credit, which in 2017 grew by 10.3% on an annual basis, but it may well lead to banks becoming less willing 10 to lend to consumers. Since the Bank of England has recently become increasingly concerned about consumer borrowing, including rising car loans and credit card debt, this may be no bad thing as far as the Bank of England is concerned, even if it does have a negative impact on the wider economy. Analysts are concerned about the impact on consumer confidence of rising inflation, 15 partly caused by a falling pound. With falling real incomes consumers could become more vulnerable to falling behind with their credit card and personal loan repayments. Despite these concerns the UK economy recently recorded the lowest rate of unemployment since 1975. (Source: adapted from ‘Bank of England tells lenders to increase capital buffers by £11.4bn’ by Caroline Binham, Gemma Tetlow and Martin Arnold © Financial Times 2017 https://www.ft.com/content/9bc99294-5b1b-11e7-9bc8-8055f264aa8b)
(a) With reference to Extract A, explain the role of forward markets in currencies. (5)
June 2019 · Paper 2 · Q6(e) 15 marks AO1=3, AO2=3, AO3=3, AO4=6 15-mark response
Data and extracts for question 6The UK economy since the financial crisis Figure 1: Pound sterling to US$ exchange rate, 2016-17 $ per £ 1.50 UK votes to leave the EU 1.40 UK general election announced 1.30 Price of £1 in US dollars 1.20 1.10 1.00 0 (Source: adapted from https://www.ft.com/content/ d50ce580-3968-11e7-ac89-b01cc67cfeec) Extract A UK companies use forward currency market The Norfolk-based picture frames maker Nielsen Bainbridge recently made forward contracts in the foreign exchange market to reduce the impact of currency fluctuations. The pound’s post-Brexit referendum depreciation has been a test of nerve for Nielsen Bainbridge and many other importers. At present the company’s suppliers are located 5 in Europe or China. “Currency therefore has a big impact on our business and the margins we can obtain,” says Ms Burdett, the Finance Director. Forward contracts enable institutions, businesses and individuals to lock in an exchange rate over a certain period of time regardless of how the rate moves during that time. Ms Burdett buys currency as soon as Nielsen Bainbridge confirms a large order as a way to fix costs. One third of UK 10 business managers are considering shifting from EU to UK suppliers. (Source: adapted from ’UK companies use pound strength to hedge forex risk’ by Roger Blitz, Markets, © FT.com, 16 May 2017. https://www.ft.com/content/ d50ce580-3968-11e7-ac89-b01cc67cfeec) Extract B Bank of England seeking to prevent future bank bailouts The Bank of England has ordered big lenders in the UK to find £116 billion of funding to ensure that taxpayers will never again have to bail out the banking sector. The Bank intends to publish details of how each of the big lenders would cope in the event they find themselves in a situation similar to Royal Bank of Scotland and Lloyds Banking 5 Group, which needed £65 billion of taxpayer bailouts during the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. This had a significant negative impact on the UK government’s national debt and, many would argue, increased the need for contractionary fiscal policy. Having said that, the UK government sold all its shares in Lloyds Banking Group in 2017 and, according to the Chancellor of the Exchequer, “recovered every penny of its investment in Lloyds”. 10 Sir Jon Cunliffe, the deputy governor at the Bank responsible for financial stability, said regulators needed to let banks fail in a similar way that traditional companies collapse. This has not been possible in the past because of the risk that savers lose their money and because a system did not exist to allow banks to be put into insolvency. “Just like when other businesses fail, losses arising from bank failure would be imposed 15 on shareholders and investors. This protects the public from loss and incentivises banks to operate more prudently,” said Cunliffe. (Source: adapted from ‘Bank of England tells lenders to find £116bn to help prevent bailouts’, by Jill Treanor, 02 October 2017, Copyright The Guardian News and Media Ltd https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/oct/02 /bank-of-england-bailouts-rbs-lloyds and ‘Lloyds bank bailout repaid in full, Philip Hammond claims’, by Jill Treanor, Larry Elliott, 21 April 2017, Copyright Guardian News & Media Ltd 2017 https://www.theguardian.com/business/ 2017/apr/21/lloyds-bank-bailout-repaid-in-full-philip-hammond-claims) Extract C Bank of England tells lenders to increase capital reserves The Bank of England has told lenders they will need to build a special reserve worth £11.4 billion by the end of 2018 as it tries to make banks more resilient to the risk posed by mounting consumer debt. This reserve of assets that can be readily turned into cash is a way of forcing banks to set aside capital reserves in good times in order to keep lending 5 to the wider economy at a steady level, even during an economic downturn. In 2017 the Bank of England told UK banks it would raise the reserve ratio, relative to all assets, from zero to 0.5% and also forecast a further increase to 1% by the end of 2017. The move is not intended to directly reduce consumer demand for credit, which in 2017 grew by 10.3% on an annual basis, but it may well lead to banks becoming less willing 10 to lend to consumers. Since the Bank of England has recently become increasingly concerned about consumer borrowing, including rising car loans and credit card debt, this may be no bad thing as far as the Bank of England is concerned, even if it does have a negative impact on the wider economy. Analysts are concerned about the impact on consumer confidence of rising inflation, 15 partly caused by a falling pound. With falling real incomes consumers could become more vulnerable to falling behind with their credit card and personal loan repayments. Despite these concerns the UK economy recently recorded the lowest rate of unemployment since 1975. (Source: adapted from ‘Bank of England tells lenders to increase capital buffers by £11.4bn’ by Caroline Binham, Gemma Tetlow and Martin Arnold © Financial Times 2017 https://www.ft.com/content/9bc99294-5b1b-11e7-9bc8-8055f264aa8b)
(e) Discuss whether providing substantial government financial support to banks is the best policy response during a financial crisis. (15)
June 2018 · Paper 2 · Q5(c) 2 marks AO2=2 Calculation
Data and extracts for question 55 UK total bank lending to individuals, percentage change on previous year 2014 2.5% 2015 3.2% 2016 4.0% (Source: Bank of England 2017)
(c) Calculate the index number for the total value of bank lending in 2016 using 2015 as a base year. (2)
June 2018 · Paper 2 · Q6(e) 15 marks AO1=3, AO2=3, AO3=3, AO4=6 15-mark response
Data and extracts for question 6Globalisation and Inequality Figure 1: Proportion of population in absolute poverty (US$1.90-a-day 2011 PPP) 70 60 50 % 40 30 20 10 0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Year Key: Sub-Saharan Africa East Asia (Source: https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/ handle/10986/25078/9781464809583.pdf) Extract A Lessons from globalisation The past 25 years have seen a freeing up of trade. Capital has been free to move around the world. Formerly closed economies in Asia have been opened up and tariffs cut. In emerging economies, a billion people have been taken out of absolute poverty, but relative poverty remains a problem. 5 In many advanced economies globalisation has come to mean, according to the Governor of the Bank of England, “low wages, insecure employment, stateless corporations and striking inequalities”. His solution to these problems is threefold: an acceptance by economists that not everybody has gained from trade and technology; a better mix of monetary policy, fiscal policy and structural reform to boost growth; and 10 more inclusive growth. In essence, this is the same conclusion that was reached in the past when there was a fear that market forces had to be moderated to prevent capitalism from destroying itself. The good news is that this moderation of capitalism included real policy changes: an extension of the right to vote, the growth of trade unions, the creation of welfare states, a 15 move to more progressive tax policies, nationalisation of key sectors of the economy, and more activist demand management. The bad news is that this process took about 100 years and was not completed until the end of the Second World War. What’s more, protectionism seems to be on the increase as countries seek to protect themselves from inequalities caused by rapid globalisation. 20 (Source: adapted from https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/dec/05/ mark-carney-globalisation-bank-of-england-capitalism) Extract B Tackling inequality Despite decades of substantial progress in boosting prosperity and reducing absolute poverty, the world continues to suffer from substantial inequalities. For example, the poorest children are four times less likely than the richest children to be enrolled in primary education across developing countries. Among the estimated 780 million 5 illiterate adults worldwide, nearly two-thirds are women. Poor people face higher risks of malnutrition and death in childhood and lower chances of receiving key healthcare. Such inequalities result in high financial costs, limit economic growth, and generate social and political burdens and barriers. These consequences highlight the importance of directing attention to the problem of 10 inequality. There are other reasons to tackle inequality. Most economies are struggling to recover from the global financial crisis that started in 2008 and the subsequent slowdown in global growth. The goal of eliminating absolute poverty by 2030 might not be achieved without accelerated economic growth or reductions in inequalities within countries, especially in those with large numbers of poor. Generally speaking, 15 poverty can be reduced through higher average growth, a narrowing in inequality, or a combination of the two. Achieving the same poverty reduction during a slowdown in growth therefore requires a more equal income distribution. Some level of inequality is desirable to maintain an appropriate incentive structure in the economy or simply because inequality also reflects different levels of talent and effort 20 among individuals. However, the substantial inequality observed in the world today offers great scope for reducing the gap between rich and poor. Policies to redistribute income from higher-income and wealthy households to those on lower incomes can be achieved without compromising growth, if done effectively. A trade-off between efficiency and fairness is not inevitable. 25 (Source: adapted from https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/ bitstream/handle/10986/25078/9781464809583.pdf)
(e) Discuss the role of the financial sector in the growth and development of developing countries. (15)

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